东亚地区现代地壳运动特征与构造变形

根据“中国地壳运动观测网络”首次发布的GPS观测结果以及国际地球自转服务中心在 2 0 0 0年发布的ITRF97下的站速度矢量和“东南亚地球动力学项目”GPS网的观测结果 ,讨论了东亚地区现今地壳运动和构造变形特征。在ITRF97参考系下 ,中国大陆东部现今地壳运动以向南东方向(12 0 130°)运动为主 ,量值平均为 35mm/a ,西部受印度板块向北东碰撞的影响 ,运动方向发生偏转 ,呈显北东—近东西向运动 ,但这种影响涉及的范围达到了准噶尔盆地北缘一线 ,说明碰撞型板块边界对板内变形的影响远大于俯冲型板块边界。平均来看 ,75 %以上的印度板块相对于欧亚板块间的南北向缩短是通过地壳增厚变形来吸收的 ,这意味着在调节整个青藏高原构造变形的过程中 ,逆断和地壳增厚起了主要的作用。东南亚块体总体上与欧亚板块的运动有所差异 ,相对于欧亚大陆有 10mm/a左右向东的运动。菲律宾板块南部向西的运动速度只有 2 4mm/a。包括华南地块在内的东南亚块体的运动不仅仅是与印度板块的碰撞过程有关 ,也应当与沿着东南亚块体东边界的俯冲过程有关。     

中国大陆及其邻区强震活动与活动地块关系研究

从活动地块假说出发 ,在活动地块研究的基础上 ,探讨了中国大陆及邻区活动地块与强震活动的关系。研究指出 ,主要构造变形和强烈地震大都发生在活动地块边界。在占总面积 17%的活动地块边界上 ,集中了全部的 8级以上巨大地震和 86 %的 7级以上大地震 ,其释放能量占全部总能量的 95 %以上 ,表明中国大陆及其邻区活动地块边界带控制了绝大部分的强地震。从活动地块的整体来看 ,强震活动不仅显示出显著的韵律性特征 ,而且其高、低起伏基本上与中国大陆地区一致 ,只是强震活跃时段有时稍长于中国大陆。各轮回强震活动都有各自活动的主体地区 ,反映了不同活跃期内地块的不同活动方式。文中还从现今地壳运动角度 ,讨论了活动地块运动速率与强地震活动水平之间的可能联系。     

论地震数值预报——关于我国地震预报研究发展战略的思考

随着中国工业化和社会现代化进程的加快 ,中国城市化进程必将进一步加速。如何减轻地震灾害的问题正变得日益严峻。尽管地震预测是一个举世公认的国际性科学难题 ,但在强化各种减轻地震灾害措施的同时 ,仍须大力推进地震预测研究。为此 ,需要打破长期徘徊在以地震前兆异常监测为基础的经验性预测局面 ,把注意力尽快转向研究以动力学为基础的数值预报。以GPS为代表的空间对地观测技术 ,岩石圈巨型高分辨率宽频带流动地震台阵观测技术以及数值模拟技术已经为地震数值预报研究提供了前所未有的技术基础。以地震数值预报为目标的GPS阵列地壳形变连续观测 ,高分辨率地壳上地幔结构探测 ,地壳动力学 ,地震孕育和破裂过程的理论、模拟试验和实际观测 ,数据同化和计算软件的开发应成为今后研究的重点。现在的问题是 ,需要积极借助数值天气预报的经验 ,强化多学科 ,多部门的组织协调 ,尽早在有条件的地区开展地震动力学数值预报的科学试验。地震数值预报研究必将极大地促进中国地震科学基础研究和地震预报的进一步发展。     

Crustal structure beneath the Songpan—Garze orogenic belt

The Benzilan-Tangke deepseismic sounding profile in the western Sichuan region passes through the Song-pan-Garze orogenic belt with trend of NNE.Based on the travel times and the related amplitudes of phases in the record sections,the 2-D P-wave crustal structure was ascertained in this paper.The velocity structure has quite strong lateral variation along the profile.The crust is divided into 5layers,where the first,second and third layer belong to the upper crust,the forth and fifth layer belong to the lower crust.The low velocity anomaly zone gener-ally exists in the central part of the upper crust on the profile,and it integrates into the overlying low velocity basement in the area to the north of Ma‘erkang.The crustal structure in the section can be divided into 4parts:in the south of Garze-litang fault,between Garze-Litang fault and Xianshuihe fault,between Xianshuihe fault and Longriba fault and in the north of Longriba fault,which are basically coincided with the regional tectonics division.The crustal thickness decreases from southwest to northeast along the profile,that is ,from62km in the region of the Jinshajiang River to 52km in the region of the Yellow River.The Moho discontinuity does not obviously change across the Xianshuihe fault basesd on the PmP phase analysis.The crustal average velocity along the profile is lower,about 6.30 km/s.The Benzilan-Tangke profile reveals that the crust in the study area is orogenic.The Xianshuihe fault belt is located in the central part of the profile,and the velocity is positive anomaly on the upper crust,and negative anomaly on the lower crust and upper mantle.It is considered as a deep tectonhic setting in favor of strong earthquake‘s accumulation and occurrence.     

渭干河流域"2002·7"特大洪水分析

渭干河是塔里木河流域第六大源流, 位于天山西部南麓, 渭干河干流起点有新疆最大的流域性控制工程--克孜尔水库. 2002年7月下旬天山中西部山区出现大暴雨(雪)过程, 渭干河流域山区降水持续时间长达30 h以上, 山区降水量50 mm左右, 导致5条支流和渭干河干流出现有水文记录以来的最大洪峰, 流量超过警戒流量和危险流量的2～3.5倍, 暴雨(雪)过程结束之后, 融雪型洪峰长时间居高不下. 洪水过程中, 各支流以及暴雨与融雪等多种洪峰遭遇现象很明显. 克孜尔水库入库洪峰流量达3 660 m3*s-1, 经水库调洪错峰, 出库峰值流量为1 000 m3*s-1, 削峰率72.7%.     

Aseismic negative dislocation model and deformation analysis of crustal horizontal movement during 1999——2001 in the northeast margin of Qinghai-Xizang block

Through numerical simulation for GPS data, aseism/c negative dislocation model for crustal horizontal movement during 1999-2001 in the northeast margin of Qinghai-Xizang block is presented, combined with the spatial distri-bution of apparent strain field in this area, the characteristics of motion and deformation of active blocks and their boundary faults, together with the place and intensity of strain accumulation are analyzed. It is shown that: a) 9 active blocks appeared totally clockwise motion from eastward by north to eastward by south. Obvious sinistral strike-slip and NE-NEE relative compressive motion between the blocks separated by Qilianshan-Haiyuan fault zone was discovered; b) 20 fault segments (most of them showed compression) locked the relative motion between blocks to varying degrees, among the total, the mid-east segment of Qilianshan fault (containing the place where it meets Riyueshan-Lajishan fault) and the place where it meets Haiyuan fault and Zhuanglanghe fault, more favored accumulation of strain. Moreover, the region where Riyueshan-Lajishan fault meets north boundary of Qaidam block may have strain accumulation to some degree, c) Obtained magnitude of block velocities and locking of their boundaries were less than relevant results for observation in the period of 1993-1999.