Modeling of circulation and salinity in Hooghly estuary

The circulation and salinity distribution in the Hooghly Estuary have been studied by developing a two‐dimensional depth‐averaged numerical model for the lower estuary, where the flow is vertically well mixed. This has been coupled with a one‐dimensional model for the upper estuary, where the flow is assumed to be unidirectional and well mixed over the depth and breadth. The Hooghly River receives high freshwater discharge during the monsoon season (June to September), which has significant effect on the salinity distribution in the estuary. The model‐simulated currents, elevations, and salinities are in good agreement with observations during the dry season. However, during the wet season the computed salinities seem to deviate slightly from the observed values.     

Conflation and aggregation of spatial data improve predictive models for species with limited habitats: A case of the threatened yellow-billed cuckoo in Arizona,USA

Riparian vegetation provides important wildlife habitat in the southwestern United States, but limited distributions and spatial complexity often leads to inaccurate representation in maps used to guide conservation. We test the use of data conflation and aggregation on multiple vegetation/land-cover maps to improve the accuracy of habitat models for the threatened western yellow-billed cuckoo (Coccyzus americanus occidentalis). We used species observations (n = 479) from a state-wide survey to develop habitat models from 1) three vegetation/land-cover maps produced at different geographic scales ranging from state to national, and 2) new aggregate maps defined by the spatial agreement of cover types, which were defined as high (agreement = all data sets), moderate (agreement ≥ 2), and low (no agreement required). Model accuracies, predicted habitat locations, and total area of predicted habitat varied considerably, illustrating the effects of input data quality on habitat predictions and resulting potential impacts on conservation planning. Habitat models based on aggregated and conflated data were more accurate and had higher model sensitivity than original vegetation/land-cover, but this accuracy came at the cost of reduced geographic extent of predicted habitat. Using the highest performing models, we assessed cuckoo habitat preference and distribution in Arizona and found that major watersheds containing high-probably habitat are fragmented by a wide swath of low-probability habitat. Focus on riparian restoration in these areas could provide more breeding habitat for the threatened cuckoo, offset potential future habitat losses in adjacent watershed, and increase regional connectivity for other threatened vertebrates that also use riparian corridors.     

Deriving Changjiang coastal zone wind from C-band SAR and its application to salinity simulation

Wind plays an important role in hydrodynamic processes such as the expansion of Changjiang （Yangtze） River Diluted Water （CDW）, and shelf circulation in the Changjiang estuary. Thus, it is essential to include wind in the numerical simulation of these phenomena. Synthetic aperture radar （SAR） with high resolution and wide spatial coverage is valuable for measuring spatially inhomogeneous ocean surface wind fields. We have collected 87 ERS-2 SAR images with wind-induced streaks that cover the Cbangjiang coastal area, to verify and improve the validity of wind direction retrieval using the 2D fast Fourier transform method. We then used these wind directions as inputs to derive SAR wind speeds using the C-band model. To demonstrate the applicability of the algorithms, we validated the SAR-retrieved wind fields using QuikSCAT measurements and the atmospheric Weather Research Forecasting model. In general, we found good agreement between the datasets, indicating the reliability and applicability of SAR- retrieved algorithms under different atmospheric conditions. We investigated the main error sources of this process, and conducted sensitivity analyses to estimate the wind speed errors caused by the effect of speckle, uncertainties in wind direction, and inaccuracies in the normalized radar cross section. Finally, we used the SAR-retrieved wind fields to simulate the salinity distribution off the Changjiang estuary. The findings of this study will be valuable for wind resource assessment and the development of future numerical ocean models based on SAR images.     

坡面流与坡面侵蚀动力过程研究的最新进展*

在回顾了坡面流及坡面侵蚀过程研究的简史与现状的基础之上,全面总结了坡面流形成机理及其模式、坡面流水动力学特性、坡面侵蚀动力过程及其侵蚀产沙模型诸方面研究的最新进展,并对坡面流各要素分析及坡面小侵蚀陡坎的形成等进行了一些探讨。最后,提出了坡面流及坡面侵蚀过程研究中存在的主要问题及未来展望。     

1) I. A. H. S. / A. I. H. S.

Abstract

A simple method is used to study the response of runoff in the Sahel to climate change. The statistical characteristics of rainfall are calculated over the western part of the Sahel for the period 1961–1990, using the BADOPLU network. Daily rainfall is simulated using a Markov process with Weibull distribution for rainfall depths. Runoff is modelled using a conceptual SCS model and the curve numbers are calculated for West Africa. Climate change is provided by simulations using the Arpège GCM (Scenario A1B), and a perturbation method is used on the parameters which describe the rainfall. Changes in rainfall are assumed to occur through increases in frequency, not intensity. Using Arpège, runoff is mainly found to increase, in depth and in number of events, by the end of the 21st century. Changes in evaporation and land use are not included in the analysis. The impact of this 21st century potential climate change (rainfall) on the runoff is found to be of the same magnitude as the impact of changes in land use.     

Model of wind-generated ambient noise in stratified shallow water

In order to build a rapid ocean ambient noise model adapted for a stratified shallow water, a hybrid model of normal mode method (for far field) and ray method (for near field) is suggested which combines the advantages of both methods. Since the near field of wind-generated noise is not sensitive to the sound speed profile, the sound speed profile is regarded as a constant; which makes the model rapid and accurate. The simulation results are in agreement with those of the wave model.     

三峡地区地形变监测与区域地壳稳定性分析

利用三峡地区多年的地形变观测资料，分析了该区的地形变特征。结果表明，各断层活动性甚微或基本不活动，区域地壳相对稳定     

Damage localization of marine risers using time series of vibration signals

Based on dynamic response signals a damage detection algorithm is developed for marine risers. Damage detection methods based on numerous modal properties have encountered issues in the researches in offshore oil community. For example, significant increase in structure mass due to marine plant/animal growth and changes in modal properties by equipment noise are not the result of damage for riser structures. In an attempt to eliminate the need to determine modal parameters, a data-based method is developed. The implementation of the method requires that vibration data are first standardized to remove the influence of different loading conditions and the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model is used to fit vibration response signals. In addition, a damage feature factor is introduced based on the autoregressive (AR) parameters. After that, the Euclidean distance between ARMA models is subtracted as a damage indicator for damage detection and localization and a top tensioned riser simulation model with different damage scenarios is analyzed using the proposed method with dynamic acceleration responses of a marine riser as sensor data. Finally, the influence of measured noise is analyzed. According to the damage localization results, the proposed method provides accurate damage locations of risers and is robust to overcome noise effect.     

Mean slope-angle frequency distribution and size frequency distribution of landslide masses in Higashikubiki area, Japan

Landslide mass size frequency distributions and mean slope-angle frequency distributions were calculated for slump, slide, and creep type landslides in the Higashikubiki area. Mean slope-angle frequency distributions closely approximated Weibull distributions. Size frequency distributions show power-law dependencies. Both can be explained by modeling landslides as linked uniform blocks in tensile force. Power coefficients for size frequency distributions were 2.01–2.32 (approximation to power functions) or 2.10–2.24 (approximation to Pareto distributions).     

2010年北京市流动人口预测

针对北京市流动人口样本数据量小、不连续等特点,本文采用Logistic曲线拟合和等维递补灰色预测理论,预测“十一五”期间北京流动人口的增长情况。首先,通过Logistic曲线拟合与外推,掌握流动人口增长的总趋势;其次,选定不同长度的人口序列以建立多个等维递补灰色模型,检验并分析各种预测结果的合理性与不足;最终确定北京市流动人口增长预测的高、中、低方案。实践表明,灰色等维递补预测法对“小样本”、“贫信息”的人口预测是切实可行的。