导线覆冰极值的概率分布模拟及其应用试验

利用南方地区多个气象站和电力部门观冰站的导线覆冰逐日冰厚资料,将广义极值分布和广义帕雷托分布引入导线覆冰的概率模型研究中,通过超门限覆冰次数的泊松分布拟合检验,结合H ill图解,提出了基于超门限峰值法门限值的确定方法;对两种分布在导线覆冰极值模型拟合的适用性研究表明,广义帕雷托分布对各站覆冰冰厚极值的拟合精度最高;重现期冰厚极值估计随样本长度的变化分析表明,广义帕雷托分布模型极值估计的稳定性比广义极值分布强,一般样本容量达到25 a左右时,广义帕雷托分布重现期冰厚极值的估计趋于稳定,可以作为短序列下估计导线覆冰极值的较好方法。     

On the swelling potential of compacted high plasticity clays

We conducted a study of the spatial distributions of seismicity and earthquake hazard parameters for Turkey and the adjacent areas, applying the maximum likelihood method. The procedure allows for the use of either historical or instrumental data, or even a combination of the two. By using this method, we can estimate the earthquake hazard parameters, which include the maximum regional magnitude Mˆ_max, the activity rate of seismic events and the well-known bˆ value, which is the slope of the frequency-magnitude Gutenberg-Richter relationship. These three parameters are determined simultaneously using an iterative scheme. The uncertainty in the determination of the magnitudes was also taken into consideration. The return periods (RP) of earthquakes with a magnitude M ≥ m are also evaluated. The whole examined area is divided into 24 seismic regions based on their seismotectonic regime. The homogeneity of the magnitudes is an essential factor in such studies. In order to achieve homogeneity of the magnitudes, formulas that convert any magnitude to an M_S-surface scale are developed. New completeness cutoffs and their corresponding time intervals are also assessed for each of the 24 seismic regions. Each of the obtained parameters is distributed into its respective seismic region, allowing for an analysis of the localized seismicity parameters and a representation of their regional variation on a map. The earthquake hazard level is also calculated as a function of the form Θ = (Mˆ_max,RP_6.0), and a relative hazard scale (defined as the index K) is defined for each seismic region. The investigated regions are then classified into five groups using these parameters. This classification is useful for theoretical and practical reasons and provides a picture of quantitative seismicity. An attempt is then made to relate these values to the local tectonics.     

2019年四川长宁MS6.0地震前破裂区内视应力和b值的变化

视应力和b值都可以反映地壳应力变化。当应力增加时,视应力会增加,而b值降低。因此,应力变化将导致视应力和b值之间呈负相关关系,即,根据视应力和b值之间的负相关关系可以研究地壳构造应力的变化。本文利用2000年1月—2019年12月长宁M_S6.0地震破裂区内3.0≤M_L≤3.6地震的视应力和2.0≤M_L≤4.3地震目录,研究了视应力和b值随时间的变化,发现:2013年2月—2017年3月间,视应力呈趋势上升变化,历时约4年,在震前两年时间内,视应力仍维持在较高水平。在视应力呈趋势上升变化期间,b值则呈趋势下降变化。当视应力维持在较高水平时,b值则维持在较低水平。即,长宁M_S6.0地震发生前,破裂区内视应力增加,同时b值下降。这表明,2019年长宁M_S6.0地震发生前破裂区内存在明显的构造应力增加过程,对地震孕育过程的认识和地震预测研究都具有启示意义。      

基于改进的Klobuchar模型建立南宁市区域电离层延迟模型

以最小二乘曲面拟合模型为背景场,利用南宁市区域CORS网实测数据,对Klobuchar模型的初始相位、振幅和夜间时延值不断改正,建立南宁市区域电离层延迟模型。结果表明,改进的Klobuchar模型精度有显著提高。     

Multiple sulfur isotope chemostratigraphy across the Permian–Triassic boundary at Chaotian,China: Implications for a shoaling model of toxic deep-waters

Previous studies on multiple sulfur isotopes (³²S, ³³S, and ³⁴S) in sedimentary pyrite at the end-Permian suggested a shoaling of anoxic/sulfidic deep-water contributing to the extinction. This scenario is based on an assumption that the sedimentary sulfur cycle was largely controlled by benthos activity, though a stratigraphic correlation between the sulfur records and ichnofabrics of the sediments at the end-Permian has not yet been examined. We report the multiple sulfur isotopic composition of pyrite in the Permian–Triassic boundary interval at Chaotian, South China. Our data can be generally explained by a mixing of sulfur in sulfide from two different sources: one produced via sulfate reduction in an open system with respect to sulfate and the other produced in a closed system. In particular, the former with the substantially low δ³⁴S (<−40 ‰) and high ∆³³S (up to +0.100 ‰) values was likely produced via water-mass sulfate reduction or via sulfate reduction in oxic sediments with common burrows. The frequent occurrence of small pyrite framboids (mostly <5 μm in diameter) in the Lopingian (Late Permian) Dalong Formation of deep-water facies supports the enhanced water-mass sulfate reduction in an anoxic deep-water mass. The negative ∆³³S values are observed only in the oxic limestones, and no substantial ∆³³S change is observed across the extinction horizon despite of the disappearance of bioturbation. Our results are apparently inconsistent with the previous shoaling model. We expand the model and infer that, when the deep-water was sulfidic and its shoaling rate was high, a substantial amount of hydrogen sulfide (H₂S) was supplied onto the shelf via the shoaling; that resulted in the positive ∆³³S value of the bulk sediments. The observed ∆³³S variation on a global scale suggests a substantial variation in H₂S concentration and/or in upwelling rate of shoaling deep-waters during the Permian–Triassic transition.     

农地城市流转决策优化研究

农地保护与城市发展被认为是一对矛盾。农地城市流转决策应协调好二者的关系,以实现土地的可持续利用。而现行决策的片面性从某种程度上助长了农地的盲目流失,直接影响到我国土地资源的后续利用、粮食安全、生态环境等。文章从可持续利用的角度,通过对农地城市流转的选择价值和外部性的分析及评价,优化了农地城市流转决策。     

水资源全成本定价问题

随着经济的发展,人们对水资源的需求越来越多,水资源的天然供给与人类需求的矛盾越来越突出。在我国一些地区水资源不足已成为制约经济发展的一个主要瓶颈。但是一方面是水资源的不足,一方面又存在水资源的大量浪费,因此,合理配置水资源的使用已成为当务之急。配置资源的方式有2种,一种是计划手段,一种是经济手段,水资源的合理配置应将2种方法结合使用。文章依据马克思的劳动价值论,对水资源全成本定价方法进行了探讨。     

甘肃时段暴雨主要统计参数的水平分布规律研究

甘肃是一个干旱同时又是暴雨多发的省份。通过介绍与暴雨关系密切的甘肃自然地理概况,选用甘肃境内及其周边700个雨量站的观测资料,在统计计算10min、60min、6h、24h、3d这5个时段在每个时段的多年平均时段最大暴雨量和变差系数的基础上,研究了5个时段的两个主要统计参数在甘肃省境内的水平分布规律。对甘肃及其周边干旱地区的公路铁路建设、暴雨洪水集蓄利用、水土保持和防洪减灾等具有重要意义。     

A Simple Monte Carlo Method for Locating the Three-dimensional Critical Slip Surface of a Slope

Based on the assumption of the plain-strain problem, various optimization or random search methods have been developed for locating the critical slip surfaces in slope-stability analysis, but none of such methods is applicable to the 3D case. In this paper, a simple Monte Carlo random simulation method is proposed to identify the 3D critical slip surface. Assuming the initial slip to be the lower part of a slip ellipsoid, the 3D critical slip surface is located by means of a minimized 3D safety factor. A column-based 3D slope stability analysis model is used to calculate this factor. In this study, some practical cases of known minimum safety factors and critical slip surfaces in 2D analysis are extended to 3D slope problems to locate the critical slip surfaces. Compared with the 2D result, the resulting 3D critical slip surface has no apparent difference in terms of only cross section, but the associated 3D safety factor is definitely higher.