2017年5月7日广州特大暴雨模拟中的背景场影响分析

2017年5月7日广州发生了特大暴雨,为研究不同背景场资料对这次暴雨过程的影响,模式背景场分别采用美国NCEP的GFS资料和中国的T639资料,利用GRAPES_Meso模式对这次暴雨过程进行了数值模拟和影响分析;数值试验结果表明,采用不同的背景场对这次暴雨过程具有显著影响,用T639资料(T639_run)作为模式背景场大致模拟出了这次暴雨过程,而采用NCEP GFS数据(GFS_run)模拟的降水明显偏北。其原因是,采用T639资料做背景场时,华南暴雨区域存在深厚的水汽输送,同时存在强烈的上升运动,可以产生极端强降水;而采用GFS资料进行数值模拟时,实际暴雨区上空的上升气流较弱,水汽输送也较弱,使强降水落区偏北。GRAPES_Meso模式模拟的华南地区的云顶高度整体偏高,云顶温度整体偏低,相对来说,采用T639_run的模拟结果优于GFSrun的结果,该研究结果可以为云降水方案中的水物质和云量计算方案的改进和优化提供一定的参考。     

公路勘测中应注意的几个问题

结合营口滨海大道勘测设计工程实例,探讨了公路勘测时坐标系统选择、平面控制点点位选定、全站仪三角高程代替四等水准、RTK技术应用等一些问题,并提出了几点结论。     

批判实在论在城市空间研究中的应用

批判实在论是一种有关社会科学的哲学理论,它从浅显易懂的本体论出发,抨击了传统科学研究中背离客观实在的种种理想主义倾向,如对“规律性”的迷信、对计量分析方法的过分依赖等。在上世纪80年代批判实在论被引入到西方城市空间研究中、发展为一种新的研究范式,该范式在对传统空间分析研究的批判基础上强调对空间现象的因果机制的阐释,提出了有关因果机制的概念框架,认为只有透过错综复杂的因果关系去把握决定事物的深层结构和机制,才能避免传统研究中常出现的“混乱归因”现象,为此发展了具体研究和抽象研究、深入研究和广泛研究相结合的研究方法,并将其应用于城市空间研究实践中。本研究对批判实在论范式的产生背景和哲学基础等进行了分析,介绍了其理论脉络、方法论和研究实践,并对该范式进行了评价。     

Observation on height changes of chinese tide gauges by GPS

IntroductionBecause of global temperature rising and glacierthawing,the sea level has risen about 10-25 cmin the past century[1]. The sea level change isone of the main ai ms in global change monito-ring. Presently the basic tool used in sea levelmonitori…     

单面边坡的两种动力反应形式及其临界高度

把单面边坡的动力反应分为高边坡动力反应和低边坡动力反应两类. 研究了两种不同动力反应形式临界边坡高度的影响因素. 量纲分析表明弹性条件下边坡动力反应临界高度Hthre与构成边坡材料的动弹性模量Ed的平方根成正比,与边坡材料的密度ρ成反比,与边坡动力输入的特征周期T成正比. 结合弹性波动理论,利用大量数值模拟和统计分析得到了Hthre的表达式. 当边坡的高度大于Hthre时,边坡的动力反应呈现高边坡动力反应规律,当边坡的高度小于Hthre时,边坡的动力反应呈现低边坡动力反应规律.     

Hilbert变换在海浪波高与周期联合分布函数中的应用

Longuet-Higgins(1983)[1]导出了波高与周期的联合分布函数,此分布函数虽然与实际数据符合良好,但存在很大的缺陷,如:由此分布函数得出的波高分布为形式较为复杂的非Rayleigh分布,很难应用于工程计算中。孙孚(1988a)[2]应用射线理论导出了一种波高与周期联合分布,虽然弥补了Longuet-Higgins的一些缺陷,但推导过程过于复杂。本文在窄谱假定下通过应用Hilbert变换方法得出新的分布函数并与前两者比较,表明Hilbert变换的方法不但简便,而且完全克服Longuet-Higgins的不足,可以方便的应用于工程计算中。本文也为Hilbert变换的方法在工程中的应用提供了理论依据。     

对欧亚非大陆自由主义民主格局演变的批判性分析

自由主义民主作为西方谋求世界霸权而肆意输出的意识形态,以批判性话语剖析欧亚非大陆自由主义民主状况,对揭露西方民主输出的真实目的意义重大。探究欧亚非大陆“自由”等级格局演变特征,搭建“自由”等级格局演变影响因子体系,并揭示其演变影响机制。研究发现：①“自由”国家数量总体显著增长,从欧洲南部、西部、北部,亚洲南部、东北部扩散至欧洲东部、中部和非洲南部地区;“部分自由”国家数量总体明显增加,基本分布在亚洲南部、东南部,非洲东部、西部和南部;“不自由”国家数量总体略有减少,从欧洲东部、亚洲和非洲大部分地区压缩至亚非大部分地区。②“自由”等级标准差指数表现出明显上升趋势,而其变异系数表现出波动下降趋势。③总体上,欧亚非大陆具有相似“自由”等级的国家集聚程度在不断增强,其中,高值集聚出现波动增强;局部上,冷点、次冷点区域呈现“联成一片”的态势,热点、次热点区域则有“东进”的趋势。④社会经济、外部扩散、文化宗教、政治制度、西方行为等因素影响显著,且在整体和局部影响机制上呈现明显差异。⑤“自由之家”为突出和强调西方在国际政治领域的标准制定权和话语权,其“自由”等级指数具有极强的意识形态属性和战略意图。     

Moving from plot-based to hillslope-scale assessments of savanna vegetation structure with long-range terrestrial laser scanning (LR-TLS)

Reliable quantification of savanna vegetation structure is critical for accurate carbon accounting and biodiversity assessment under changing climate and land-use conditions. Inventories of fine-scale vegetation structural attributes are typically conducted from field-based plots or transects, while large-area monitoring relies on a combination of airborne and satellite remote sensing. Both of these approaches have their strengths and limitations, but terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) has emerged as the benchmark for vegetation structural parameterization – recording and quantifying 3D structural detail that is not possible from manual field-based or airborne/spaceborne methods. However, traditional TLS approaches suffer from similar spatial constraints as field-based inventories. Given their small areal coverage, standard TLS plots may fail to capture the heterogeneity of landscapes in which they are embedded. Here we test the potential of long-range (>2000 m) terrestrial laser scanning (LR-TLS) to provide rapid and robust assessment of savanna vegetation 3D structure at hillslope scales. We used LR-TLS to sample entire savanna hillslopes from topographic vantage points and collected coincident plot-scale (1 ha) TLS scans at increasing distances from the LR-TLS station. We merged multiple TLS scans at the plot scale to provide the reference structure, and evaluated how 3D metrics derived from LR-TLS deviated from this baseline with increasing distance. Our results show that despite diluted point density and increased beam divergence with distance, LR-TLS can reliably characterize tree height (RMSE = 0.25–1.45 m) and canopy cover (RMSE = 5.67–15.91%) at distances of up to 500 m in open savanna woodlands. When aggregated to the same sampling grain as leading spaceborne vegetation products (10–30 m), our findings show potential for LR-TLS to play a key role in constraining satellite-based structural estimates in savannas over larger areas than traditional TLS sampling can provide.     

Inter-comparison of remote sensing platforms for height estimation of mango and avocado tree crowns

To support the adoption of precision agricultural practices in horticultural tree crops, prior research has investigated the relationship between crop vigour (height, canopy density, health) as measured by remote sensing technologies, to fruit quality, yield and pruning requirements. However, few studies have compared the accuracy of different remote sensing technologies for the estimation of tree height. In this study, we evaluated the accuracy, flexibility, aerial coverage and limitations of five techniques to measure the height of two types of horticultural tree crops, mango and avocado trees. Canopy height estimates from Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS) were used as a reference dataset against height estimates from Airborne Laser Scanning (ALS) data, WorldView-3 (WV-3) stereo imagery, Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) based RGB and multi-spectral imagery, and field measurements. Overall, imagery obtained from the UAV platform were found to provide tree height measurement comparable to that from the TLS (R² = 0.89, RMSE = 0.19 m and rRMSE = 5.37 % for mango trees; R² = 0.81, RMSE = 0.42 m and rRMSE = 4.75 % for avocado trees), although coverage area is limited to 1–10 km² due to battery life and line-of-sight flight regulations. The ALS data also achieved reasonable accuracy for both mango and avocado trees (R² = 0.67, RMSE = 0.24 m and rRMSE = 7.39 % for mango trees; R² = 0.63, RMSE = 0.43 m and rRMSE = 5.04 % for avocado trees), providing both optimal point density and flight altitude, and therefore offers an effective platform for large areas (10 km²–100 km²). However, cost and availability of ALS data is a consideration. WV-3 stereo imagery produced the lowest accuracies for both tree crops (R² = 0.50, RMSE = 0.84 m and rRMSE = 32.64 % for mango trees; R² = 0.45, RMSE = 0.74 m and rRMSE = 8.51 % for avocado trees) when compared to other remote sensing platforms, but may still present a viable option due to cost and commercial availability when large area coverage is required. This research provides industries and growers with valuable information on how to select the most appropriate approach and the optimal parameters for each remote sensing platform to assess canopy height for mango and avocado trees.     

利用CEEMD分析中国沿海GNSS站高程时序变化

利用完备经验模态分解方法（CEEMD）对我国沿海地区6个GNSS基准站（2010—2018）的高程时序数据进行了处理分析。结果表明：CEEMD在高程时间序列分析中具有一定的优越性,可准确分解出各GNSS站高程时序中存在的周、月、季节、年等变化周期项,其中周年运动是主要贡献项,各站高程时间序列的短周期变化与潮汐变化周期具有密切关联性;沿海GNSS站的地面沉降既具有区域的一致性,又存在区域间差异性,其中D区DBJO、DZJJ站呈现先下降后上升的趋势,N区NZUH、NWZU站呈下降趋势,B区的BZMW呈上升趋势,而同海区的BLHT站则呈显著的下降趋势。