对永胜6级地震的预报及依据

2001年10月27日在云南永胜发生6.0级地震，震前四川省地震局有较准确的中期和短临预报，加强了川滇交界地区的地震监测预报工作，并且向四川省政府作了汇报，取得了明显的社会效益。经验性地震预报重视川滇菱形地块西界断裂带动态活动图像的分析，尤其对历史强震破裂空段附近出现的中小震活动带或新活跃区段的研究；同时，重视4级前震群、川滇交界地区地下水位、水温、形变观测异常的跟踪分析和震情预测。     

半无限空间中圆形孔洞周围SH波的散射

建立了求解在含有圆形孔洞的弹性半空间中SH波散射与圆形孔洞附近动应力集中问题的解析方法。利用SH波散射的对称性和多极坐标的方法，构造了一个可以预先满足半空间自由表面上应力自由边界条件的圆形孔洞对SH波散射的波函数。利用这一波函数，则可将该问题转化成对一个圆形孔洞散射的求解问题。该问题的解答最终又可归结为对一组无究代数方程组的求解问题，并可利用截断有限项的方法对其进行计算，最后给出了有关圆形也洞附近动应力集中问题的算例和数值结果，并讨论了波数与圆孔至自由边界距离变化对动应力集中的影响。     

淤积泥砂对水平地运动作用时刚性坝面动压力的影响

文章基于固体介质，流体介质，液固两相饱和介质的时域显示有限元波动分析方法，研究了可压缩库水条件下淤积泥砂对水平地运动作用时刚性坝面上动压力的影响，研究中分析了作为两相介质处理的淤积泥砂的饱和度、厚度、渗透系数和孔隙率对坝面动压力的影响，还比较了作为流程两相介质，单相固体介质、单相重流体介质处理的不同淤积泥砂层模型间的计算结果差异。     

昆仑山口西8.1级地震前青海省形变及地温前兆特征分析

通过对青海省地倾斜、地应力、深井地温3种前兆手段在昆仑山口西8．1级地震前异常的分析与研究，得出了强地震远场前兆的一些初步特征，并与近场前兆异常特征做了比较，这对该省今后强震短期预报将是有益的。     

2-D viscoelastic FEM simulation on stress state in the deep part of a subducted slab

Introduction It is found that there are some relationships between the thermal structures of subduction zones and the deep seismicity, while the mechanism relates the thermal structure and the deep seismicity is still unsure (Helffrich, Brodholt, 1991; Furukawa, 1994; Kirby, et al, 1996). From 1980s, geoscientists have constituted a series of numerical simulations on the stress states of subduction slabs. Based on the kinetic computation of Sung and Burns (1976a, b), Goto, et al (1983, 1987…     

A comparison of tectonic ambient shear stress value in China with that in western USA

Introduction The stress status of the earths crust is closely related to global structure, the direction of plate movement, the drive mechanism of plate, earthquake cause, etc. Therefore the researches of the stress status of the earths crust and the process of dynamic evolution are paid a great attention to by many people around the world (Zoback, Zoback, 1980; Zoback, et al, 1989; Zoback, 1989; Spence, 1997; Fuchs, 1997; Plenefish, Bonjer, 1997; Muller, et al, 1997; XU, et al, 1989; WAN…     

Evapotranspiration from citrus trees growing in sandy soilunder drip irrigation with saline water

An experiment on evapotranspiration from citrus trees under irrigation with saline waterwas carried out for 4 months. Two lysimeters planted with a citrus tree in the green house wereused. One lysimeter was irrigated with saline water (NaCl and CaCl2 of 2000 mg/L equivalence,EC = 3.8 dS/m, SAR = 5.9) and the other was irrigated with freshwater using drip irrigation. Theapplied irrigation water was 1.2 times that of the evapotranspiration on the previous day.Evapotranspiration was calculated as the change in lysimeter weight recorded every 30 minutes.The lysimeters were filled with soil with 95.8% sand. The results of the experiment were as follows.(i) The evapotranspiration from citrus tree was reduced after irrigation with saline water. Theevapotranspiration returns to normal after leaching. However it takes months to exhaust the saltfrom the tree. ( ii ) To estimate the impact of irrigation with saline water on the evapotranspirationfrom citrus trees, the reduction coefficient due to salt stress (Ks) was used in this experiment.Evapotranspiration under irrigation with saline water (ETs) can be calculated from evapotranspira-tion under irrigation with freshwater (ET) by the equation ETs = Ks× ET. Ks can be expressed as afunction of ECsw. (iii) The critical soil-water electrical conductivity (ECsw) is 9.5 dS/m, beyondwhich adverse effects on evapotranspiration begin to appear. If ECsw can be controlled at below9.5 dS/m, saline water can be safely used for irrigation.     

多种驱动力作用下东亚大陆形变及应力场演化

将印度板块持续地向北推进、下伏地幔小尺度对流对增厚大陆岩石层的搬离作用以及剥蚀作用视为形成现今东亚大陆形变和应力场格局的主驱动力。在一梯形区域内，利用数值模拟的方法，研究了东亚大陆在不同的边界条件、不同的剥蚀率系数及不同的岩石力学参数条件下的形变及应力场格局。与现代空间大地测量技术 CGPS)以及利用地震观测得到的结果进行了对比。结果表明，本文模型预测的结果与上述的观测结果有较好的吻合，其西部地区比东部吻合得更好。说明控制东亚大陆西部形变和应力场基本格局的主驱动力，来源于印度板块对欧亚板块的碰撞、挤压，而对东部地区还应当考虑其与太平洋板块和菲律宾板块的相互作用。与此同时，下伏地幔小尺度对流对增厚大陆岩石层的搬离作用以及风化剥蚀对应力场的演化过程也不可忽视。      

应力释放模型的改进及其在研究台湾地区地震预测问题中的应用.

应力释放模型过去主要用于研究大范围历史大地震活动规律．本文对应力释放模型进行了改进，对其能否运用于区域更小、时段更短、震级更低的情况进行了探讨；以台湾地区近百年6级以上地震为例的研究结果表明，应力释放模型仍然适用．在回溯性的地震预测检验中，用改进的应力释放模型计算出台湾地区地震发生的条件概率强度，并用其预测6级以上地震的发震时刻．结果表明，其预测精度优于泊松模型．      

唐山地震震源区构造应力场强度的初步分析

利用唐山地区丰富的震源机制解资料反演构造应力场，并结合构造物理研究手段，对唐山地震震源区现代构造应力场的3个主应力绝对量值进行了估算，给出了地壳介质参数取理论平均值的情况下，唐山地震震源区构造应力场３个主应力量值随深度的变化趋势．研究分析了摩擦系数c、孔隙压力P0和应力形因子 等参数与应力值的关系，发现最大主应力1的垂向增长率与摩擦系数c成正比，与孔隙压力P0和应力形因子成反比；而最小应力值3的垂向增长率与孔隙压力P0成正比，与摩擦系数c和应力形因子成反比．本文对应用震源机制解资料反演完整的应力张量进行了一次有意义的尝试．