非等时距GM(1,1)在变形预报中的应用

本文应用灰色理论建模原理,探讨了非等间距GM(1,1)模型的建模步骤;通过几种不同参数下的建模方式,利用MATLAB编程进行计算比较,着重分析影响非等间距GM(1,1)模型预报精度的因素,并探讨模型的改进方法。结果表明,对于较均匀的非等间距数据,灰色模型具有较高的预报精度。在间距间隔变化较大的情况下,灰色模型进行改进后也能得到比较满意的预报结果。     

中国大陆若干地震构造带的地震准周期丛集复发行为

以青藏高原东南缘和东北缘若干地震构造带的历史地震活动资料为基本数据，通过地震复发间隔的计算，分类和统计检验等，研究了大陆板内地震的复发行为。认为：大陆板内地震既不是简单地准周期重复发生，也不是简单地丛集复发，而可能是一种准周期的丛集复发行为，即地震丛是准周期重复发生的，而在某一地震丛内，地震又是丛集复发的。存在两类地震复发间隔，即地震丛复发间隔和地震丛内的地震复发间隔，它们分别满足对数正态分布和指数分布。在进行大陆板内活动断裂地震危险性定量计算和评估时，不能简单地套用N．B．实进模型中给出的地震复发间隔概率密度函数或累积分布函数，而应该根据当前地震的活动水平，判断当前是属于丛内的活跃期还是丛间的平静期，据此分别选用地震丛内地震复发间隔分布函数或者地震丛复发问题隔分布函数，这样将大大提高活动断裂地震危险性计算和定量评估的水平。最后，简要探讨了大陆板内地震准周期丛集复发行为的可能物理机制。     

Seismic Integrated Interpretation and Prediction on Channel Sandbody of Deep Layer at West Slope in Qikou Sag

According to the seismic and geological differences among every oil measures in mid-deep layers at west slope in Qikou Sag, varieties of new techniques on geophysics and geochemistry were introduced, such as seismic process of target and CWS, neural network seismic microfacies cluster analysis, 3D interval velocity analysis. Taking advantage of the series of new techniques aims at predicting synthetically and quantitatively the deep gravity flow channel sandbody. Furthermore, considering the structural setting data, potential structural-lithologic traps were specified. As a result, the geological and drilling effect is obviously promoted.     

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区间值直观模糊集的直积与相关性

在区间值直观模糊集上定义新的算子,给出这些关系与算子之间的一些重要性质,并讨论了区间值直观模糊集的相关性问题.     

Seismic Integrated Interpretation and Prediction on Channel Sandbody of Deep Layer at West Slope in Qikou Sag

1IntroductionIn modern oil and gas exploration, utilizing vari-eties of seismic information to comprehensively pre-dict oil and gas reservoir is always an important subject for geologists. Especially in recent years, with the constant development and innovation of seismic exploration technology, it has been one of important means of raising exploration efficiency to use seismic information relating to stratigraphic structure, lithological trap or reservoir to seek for isolated sandbody, channe…     

基于混沌理论的时间序列区间预测

运用非参数统计的方法，作出混沌时间序列在特定概率限的区间预测，弥补了传统点预测的不足，使预测的适用性得以提高。并通过数据实证验证了该理论方法。     

区间系统与区间优化模型——理论与应用

区间系统与区间优化模型是一种应用广泛的描述不确定性问题的数学模型.本文综述区间系统与区间优化模型在理论与应用方面的研究进展.特别地,本文将介绍区间线性系统的解和可解性问题、区间线性优化模型的最优解和最优性问题以及区间二次优化模型的最优解和最优性问题,最后简单概述它们的各种应用实例.     

Planktonic foraminiferal biostratigraphy and assemblage composition across the Cenomanian–Turonian boundary interval at Clot Chevalier (Vocontian Basin,SE France)

The Cenomanian–Turonian boundary interval is generally considered a critical time for planktonic foraminifera due to the environmental perturbations associated with Oceanic Anoxic Event 2. However, only the rotaliporids became extinct at the onset of the event, whilst several lineages evolved and/or diversified. This remarkable morphologic plasticity is often overlooked in the literature, partly because a number of stratigraphic sections have only been studied in thin-section due to the degree of lithification of the samples. Improved documentation of the morphological variability of planktonic foraminifera and better defined species concepts are required in order to improve biostratigraphy, particularly as Helvetoglobotruncana helvetica is an unreliable marker for the base of the Turonian. At the same time, detailed study of the planktonic foraminiferal response to OAE 2 demands a more profound knowledge of the assemblage composition.We present new biostratigraphic, taxonomic, and quantitative data for planktonic foraminiferal species from the Clot Chevalier section (Vocontian Basin, SE France), with the aim of (1) providing a detailed biostratigraphic analysis of the section, (2) documenting the morphological plasticity of specimens in this time interval and stabilizing species concepts, and (3) identifying promising markers to improve the resolution of the present biozonation and allow regional correlation. Samples were processed with acetic acid to extract isolated planktonic foraminifera. Assemblages were assigned to the upper Cenomanian Rotalipora cushmani Zone and to the uppermost Cenomanian–lowermost Turonian Whiteinella archaeocretacea Zone. Planktonic foraminiferal bioevents and assemblage composition identified at Clot Chevalier are compared with the well-studied Pont d'Issole section located ca. 15 km to the NE, highlighting similarities and differences in the species occurrences that may complicate the stratigraphic correlation between the two sections.The results of our study support the validity and common occurrence of species that have been misidentified and/or overlooked in the literature (i.e., Dicarinella roddai, Praeglobotruncana oraviensis, Marginotruncana caronae) and indicate that primitive marginotruncanids evolved before the onset of OAE 2, although species diversification occurred only after the event. Moreover, we believe that the first appearance of P. oraviensis might represent a promising bioevent for approximating the Cenomanian/Turonian boundary, after calibration with bio- and chemostratigraphically well-constrained sections. Finally, we describe three new trochospiral species, named “Pseudoclavihedbergella” chevaliensis, Praeglobotruncana pseudoalgeriana and Praeglobotruncana clotensis.     

LEO卫星轨道预报精度分析

利用动力学拟合法,以HY-2A卫星为例分析不同拟合区间对预报不同弧长的轨道精度的影响。基于CNES提供的事后精密星历和采用非差简化动力学方法获得的厘米级快速轨道两种产品,进行卫星轨道预报。结果表明:采用24 h和12 h拟合区间分别预报12 h轨道时,其3DRMS优于6 dm;当预报24 h轨道时,3DRMS优于1 m。