PALEOSEISMOLOGY ON THE YEMAHE SEGMENT OF THE YEMAHE-DAXUESHAN FAULT REVEALED BY TRENCH STUDY

A series of NWW striking faults are obliquely intersected by the NEE striking Altyn Tagh fault zone in the western Qilian Mountains. These faults were mostly active in late Quaternary and play an important role in accommodating regional lateral extrusion by both reverse and sinistral slip. Detailed studies on late Quaternary activity, tectonic transformation, paleoseismology, and strain partitioning not only significantly affect our recognition on seismogenic mechanism and zones of potential large earthquakes, but also provide useful information for exploring tectonic deformation mechanism in the northern Tibetan plateau. The Danghenanshan Fault, Yemahe-Daxueshan fault, and Altyn Tagh Fault form a triplet junction point at southwest of Subei county. The Yemahe-Daxueshan fault is one important branch fault in the western Qilian Mountains that accommodated eastward decreasing slip of the Altyn Tagh Fault, which was active in late Holocene, with a length up to 170km. Based on geometry and late Quaternary activity, the Yemahe-Daxueshan fault was subdivided into 3 segments, i.e. the Subei fault, Yemahe fault and Daxueshan Fault. The Yemahe Fault has the most prominent appearance among them, and is dominated by left-lateral slip with a little normal component. The heights of fresh scarps on this fault are only several tens of centimeters. We dug 2 trenches at the Zhazhihu site, and cleaned and reinterpreted one trench of previous studies. Then we interpreted trench profiles and paleoseismic events, and collected ¹⁴C and Optical Stimulated Luminescence samples to constrain event ages. Finally, we determined 3 events on the Yemahe fault with ages(6 830±30) a BP-(6 280±40) a BP, (5 220±30) a BP, (2 010±30) a BP, respectively. The elapsed time of most recent earthquake is(2 010±30) years before present, which is very close to the recurrence interval, so the possibility of major earthquakes on the Yemahe fault is relatively large.     

基于流动单元的多油层储层参数计算和评价方法研究

针对英东地区含油储层井段长、非均质性严重、传统渗透率模型无法满足储层评价精度要求这一矛盾,在综合试油、MDT资料,深入分析油、气、水、干层测井响应特征的基础上,利用传统的流动带指数按照“单元化分类评价”的思路分地层对储层渗透率进行表征计算,并在此基础上建立电性参数下渗透率流动带指数计算模型。工区实际生产资料评价结果表明,利用流动带指数渗透率模型计算出的渗透率相对误差低于25%,绝对误差也能控制在半个数量级以内,其结果有效地提高了非均质储层渗透率预测精度,符合储层实际情况,能够满足油藏描述及生产的需要,对该地区后续长井段复杂储层非均质性研究和后期层间吸水矛盾治理具有一定的指导意义。     

非等间距WGM-AR模型在基坑周边建筑物沉降预测中的应用

非等间距GM（1,1）模型在不等时间间隔序列的趋势分析和预测方面具有重要作用,在此基础上,提出一种基于非等间距加权GM（1,1）模型和自回归AR（p）模型相结合的非等间距加权灰色自回归模型（非等间距WGM-AR模型）.将基坑周边建筑物沉降监测数据视为具有确定趋势的非等时间序列,对序列进行平滑处理,利用非等间距加权GM（1,1）模型提取该时序中的确定性趋势项,用自回归AR（p）模型分析生成的等间距序列中的随机项,并采用内插法得到沉降监测序列的随机项.将组合模型与非等间距GM（1,1）模型计算结果对比分析,结果表明,组合模型具有更高的预测精度,在基坑周边建筑物沉降预测中具有较高的应用价值.     

多精度计算和区间分析方法在科学计算中的应用

介绍了多精度计算和区间分析的概念、方法及应用,使用多精度计算研究Lorenz非线性动力系统计算结果对计算精度、步长的敏感依赖关系和不确定现象,研究Lorenz系统中长时间数值解的计算方法和基于多精度计算的最优步长、最大有效计算时间搜索方法,讨论了区间分析方法在计算机辅助证明Lorenz混沌吸引子存在性问题中的应用。     

鄂尔多斯盆地白豹地区长6储层油水识别及影响因素分析

延长组长6段是鄂尔多斯盆地白豹地区的主要含油层位,储层岩性为近深湖相带薄而致密的泥质粉砂岩,其中大量发育的滑塌沉积进一步增加了储层非均质性和评价难度;为建立适合长6储层的油水识别标准及方法,从粘土成分、成岩作用、孔隙结构、地层水矿化度4方面分析其测井特征的影响因素,在143口井长6段试油资料标定下,分析含油性与测井参数或测井组合参数的响应关系。结果表明选用综合反映储层物性特征的组合参数(△t×(USP/SSP)×(1-△GR))与深感应曲线LID(地层真电阻率Rt)制作交会图,能较好的区分出油层与非油层;在此基础上编制AC-Rt交会图可进一步将水层、干层和个别油水同层逐次区分,达到有效定性区分油、水层为油田射孔选层提供依据。     

鄂尔多斯盆地早白垩世剥蚀地层厚度恢复研究

鄂尔多斯盆地下白垩统为中生代盆地演化末期最晚沉积的地层,也是自鄂尔多斯盆地发育以来后期遭受剥蚀改造最为强烈的地层,残存范围最小。通过对全盆八百二十余口钻井现存中生代地层厚度及岩性的统计,从中选取了313口井读取声波时差值,采用声波时差和地层对比趋势法相结合进行剥蚀厚度估算,同时利用联井剖面对比法对整个盆地的恢复厚度进行对比验证。在此基础之上,恢复了早白垩世盆地原始沉积厚度,初步探讨了盆地原始沉积面貌,基本确定了盆地原始沉积边界,从而进一步加深了对晚白垩世以来盆地强烈构造变动的认识,对多种能源矿产同盆共存富集规律的研究具一定的启示。     

基于有限区间联系云的围岩稳定性评价模型

围岩稳定性评价指标分布具有有限区间分布和等级边界模糊特性。基于联系数理论和云理论的耦合方法,探讨了能考虑指标区间分布特点和级别界限模糊转换特性的围岩稳定性分类联系云模型。首先探讨了有限区间内的联系云模型,以描述有限区间内的围岩稳定性分类指标的模糊性和转换态势,结合样本指标权重和联系概率概念分析实测评价指标对各等级的综合确定度,判定了样本的围岩稳定性级别。实例应用和与其他方法对比分析结果表明,该模型应用于围岩稳定性评价是有效可行的,取得较好效果,且弥补了理想云模型不能整体描述有限区间分布的指标间确定和不确定关系的缺陷,拓广了云模型应用的适应性。     

浅海工程中小道距高分辨率多道地震方法的应用

小道距多道地震排列是一种高分辨率的探测方法,利用该方法在鲁家峙-西闪岛-登步岛浅海连岛工程中获取高精度的地震数据,通过对数据进行分析处理与解释,获得调查区域的工程地质属性,了解基岩埋深和断层分布等情况,为编制预可行性研究报告提供必要工程地质依据。结果表明,小道距多道地震可以成功地应用于浅海工程环境地质调查。     

Variability of unconfined compressive strength in relation to number of test samples

Unconfined compressive strength is one of the most commonly used properties in rock engineering. Estimation or selection of an appropriate value of unconfined compressive strength for a given rock can be difficult as it can vary greatly within the same rock unit. Considering this large variability, unconfined compressive strength obtained by testing just a few samples is questionable. The purpose of this study was to investigate the variability of unconfined compressive strength for a given rock and, based on this information, determine the minimum number of samples required for obtaining a reliable value. Unconfined compressive strength values for approximately 50 NX-size (2.125 in./5.4 cm) core samples were determined for five different rock types. Statistical analyses were performed on subsets of cores to determine the minimum number of samples required to render a reliable estimate of the average strength of the entire set of cores. The results indicate that the minimum number of samples needed for strength determination depends on the statistical method used, the chosen confidence interval, and the acceptable deviation from the mean. For a 95% confidence interval and a 20% acceptable strength deviation from the mean, either 9 or 10 samples are needed to test for strength, depending on the statistical analysis used.     

最大风速变化特征及再现期极值估算

利用枣庄市1971~2008年各月10 min最大风速资料,对枣庄最大风速统计分析。发现38年中枣庄春季、夏季、秋季、冬季和全年的最大风速都呈下降趋势,年最大风速以每10年1.47 m/s的幅度下降,冬季下降最快,达到每10年降低1.67 m/s,夏季、秋季降低幅度很接近,都小于年平均最大风速降幅,春季最大风速下降最慢,且最大风速极值主要出现在春季。枣庄各月最大风速变化曲线呈递减的"两峰两谷"形。用柯尔莫哥洛夫方法对耿贝尔分布函数进行拟合优度的检验,其显著水平达到0.05,因此利用耿贝尔分布函数估算出枣庄未来若干年的最大风速极值,以满足生产建设规划与设计中对最大风速极值的要求。