小江西支断裂的滑动速率与强震重复周期

本文通过对各种断错地质地貌现象及被错体年龄的分析,估算出小江西支断裂在第四纪、晚更新世及全新世以来的滑动速率分别为6.7毫米/年、7.0毫米/年及6.4毫水/年。在此基础上,结合历史地震及古地震活动讨论了强震的重复周期和断裂的活动特征,结果表明小江西支断裂的活动以重复错动发生强烈地震为主要特征,强震在断裂带上同一地段的平均重复周期为900年左右,沿整个断裂带的重复周期大于330年     

R/S analysis of earthquake time interval

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评定混凝土强度的置信区间方法

提出一种新的模糊回归数据融合方法的超声回弹测强曲线,此测强曲线可以减小偶然误差,提高检测的精度。同时,运用置信检验理论提出了在给定置信度下经过修正后的建筑结构强度的置信区间,并给出了混凝土强度的三个评定标准。此方法比较符合工程实际情况,且对混凝土强度做出了定量的判定。     

基于未确知测度的边坡地震稳定性综合评价

文章提出一种基于未确知测度理论的边坡地震稳定性综合评价方法,建立了各评价指标的未确知测度函数。根据信息墒理论计算各评判因子的权重,用置信度识别准则进行等级判定,得出了评价结果。该评价方法能解决边坡地震稳定性评价中诸多因素不确定性问题,还能对其进行定量分析。对实际工程中的16个典型的地震边坡进行综合评价,并与灰色聚类法、综合指标法、实测震害的结果进行比较。研究结果表明:未确知测度评价法性能良好,正确率高,具有重要的实用价值,为边坡地震稳定性的综合评价提供了一条新途径。     

Gabor变换参数对信号时频分辨率的影响

窗函数的衰减系数和采样间隔究竟对地球物理信号时频分辨率造成多大的影响,如何才能更好地消除这种影响,是该文的主要出发点。提高分辨率是信号时频分析处理的关键,在地球物理数据处理和属性参数提取等方面具有重要作用和广泛应用。该文研究了Gabor变换窗函数衰减系数选择正确与否和采样间隔对信号分辨率的影响。参数选择不当,不仅降低信号时频谱的分辨率,甚至要丢失信号。在用Gabor变换作时频分析时,通过模拟计算预先给出最佳窗函数和最佳参数范围是十分必要的。文中还给出了常规地震信号最佳采样间隔的范围和选择、处理方法。     

MSH法直接将地球勘探测线转化为深度,密度剖面

根据运动学中的动量守恒定律、分析地震勘探过程中地震波在地下介质中的传播过程,利用反射能量、透射能量与人射能量的计算公式和检波器转化的电信号与地下密度界面反射地震波波动能量的等效原理,推导出直接求层速度和层密度公式。利用某一反射界面直接测得的波速或依据钻孔资料求得的平均速度,在计算机上就可直接计算出各地震测线物性层的埋深和密度（速度、波阻抗）,由此地质工作人员依据已知地质柱状剖面（钻孔资料）可进一步     

结构瞬时最优控制参数影响的数值分析

在瞬时最优控制算法理论分析的基础上，分别以单自由度和三自由度结构模型为例，研究了时间间隔和权矩阵对结构控制反应的影响。首先，进行了瞬时最优控制算法的理论分析，提出了控制算法的影响参数；其次，分别对单自由度和三自由度结构在无控、LQR和瞬时最优三种方法控制下，分析了时间间隔和权矩阵对结构反应的影响。结果表明：时间间隔和权矩阵对结构瞬时最优控制效果影响很大。     

六盘山东麓断裂的古地震研究

野外详细调查和探开挖揭示,在六盘山东麓断裂的孙家庄－海子峡地段自距今４．６万年以来存在有６次古地震位借事件的地质形迷,它们分别发生在距今３５２５０,２０２５０,１４７５０,１２１５０,８５５０和４０００年前,各次事件的重复间隔依次是１５０００,５５００,２６００,３６００和４５５０年。按Ｍ－Ｄ经验关系,事件１,２约相当于８级地震的位错,其余各次事件约相当６．５－７．５级地震的位错。     

Evaluation of confidence intervals for a steady-state leaky aquifer model

The fact that dependent variables of groundwater models are generally nonlinear functions of model parameters is shown to be a potentially significant factor in calculating accurate confidence intervals for both model parameters and functions of the parameters, such as the values of dependent variables calculated by the model. The Lagrangian method of Vecchia and Cooley [Vecchia, A.V. & Cooley, R.L., Water Resources Research, 1987, 23(7), 1237–1250] was used to calculate nonlinear Scheffé-type confidence intervals for the parameters and the simulated heads of a steady-state groundwater flow model covering 450 km² of a leaky aquifer. The nonlinear confidence intervals are compared to corresponding linear intervals. As suggested by the significant nonlinearity of the regression model, linear confidence intervals are often not accurate. The commonly made assumption that widths of linear confidence intervals always underestimate the actual (nonlinear) widths was not correct. Results show that nonlinear effects can cause the nonlinear intervals to be asymmetric and either larger or smaller than the linear approximations. Prior information on transmissivities helps reduce the size of the confidence intervals, with the most notable effects occurring for the parameters on which there is prior information and for head values in parameter zones for which there is prior information on the parameters.     

ISMISIP: an inexact stochastic mixed integer linear semi-infinite programming approach for solid waste management and planning under uncertainty

An inexact stochastic mixed integer linear semi-infinite programming (ISMISIP) model is developed for municipal solid waste (MSW) management under uncertainty. By incorporating stochastic programming (SP), integer programming and interval semi-infinite programming (ISIP) within a general waste management problem, the model can simultaneously handle programming problems with coefficients expressed as probability distribution functions, intervals and functional intervals. Compared with those inexact programming models without introducing functional interval coefficients, the ISMISIP model has the following advantages that: (1) since parameters are represented as functional intervals, the parameter’s dynamic feature (i.e., the constraint should be satisfied under all possible levels within its range) can be reflected, and (2) it is applicable to practical problems as the solution method does not generate more complicated intermediate models (He and Huang, Technical Report, 2004; He et al. J Air Waste Manage Assoc, 2007). Moreover, the ISMISIP model is proposed upon the previous inexact mixed integer linear semi-infinite programming (IMISIP) model by assuming capacities of the landfill, WTE and composting facilities to be stochastic. Thus it has the improved capabilities in (1) identifying schemes regarding to the waste allocation and facility expansions with a minimized system cost and (2) addressing tradeoffs among environmental, economic and system reliability level.