Grey fuzzy optimization model for water quality management of a river system

A grey fuzzy optimization model is developed for water quality management of river system to address uncertainty involved in fixing the membership functions for different goals of Pollution Control Agency (PCA) and dischargers. The present model, Grey Fuzzy Waste Load Allocation Model (GFWLAM), has the capability to incorporate the conflicting goals of PCA and dischargers in a deterministic framework. The imprecision associated with specifying the water quality criteria and fractional removal levels are modeled in a fuzzy mathematical framework. To address the imprecision in fixing the lower and upper bounds of membership functions, the membership functions themselves are treated as fuzzy in the model and the membership parameters are expressed as interval grey numbers, a closed and bounded interval with known lower and upper bounds but unknown distribution information. The model provides flexibility for PCA and dischargers to specify their aspirations independently, as the membership parameters for different membership functions, specified for different imprecise goals are interval grey numbers in place of a deterministic real number. In the final solution optimal fractional removal levels of the pollutants are obtained in the form of interval grey numbers. This enhances the flexibility and applicability in decision-making, as the decision-maker gets a range of optimal solutions for fixing the final decision scheme considering technical and economic feasibility of the pollutant treatment levels. Application of the GFWLAM is illustrated with case study of the Tunga–Bhadra river system in India.     

Late Barremian to early Aptian calcareous nannofossil paleoceanography and paleoecology from the Ocean Drilling Program Hole 641C (Galicia Margin)

Calcareous nannofossil assemblages at Site 641C (Galicia Margin, North Atlantic) were investigated in order to determine changes in fertility and temperature of surface waters. Taxa such as Zeughrabdotus spp. <3.5 μm, Biscutum constans, Discorhabdus rotatorius and Diazomatolithus lehmanii, which thrived in higher fertility conditions, are particularly abundant across the CM0 interval as opposed to those with oligotrophic affinities such as Watznaueria spp. and Nannoconus spp., which are generally reduced in abundance. The abundances of nannoconids are much lower than those observed in Tethyan sections, indicating higher fertility conditions. Slumpings and low recovery prevent the identification of the onset of the “nannoconid crisis”, but a sharp drop in nannoconid abundances, observed prior to the CM0 interval, correlates with the “nannoconid decline” observed in several Tethys sections.The normalized ratio between low and high fertility taxa (Fertility Index) was used to characterize the nannofossil assemblages in terms of productivity changes. The highest values of the Fertility Index were observed across magnetic chron CM0. The paucity of cold water taxa such as Seribiscutum spp. and Repagulum parvidentatum suggests warm water conditions throughout the deposition of upper Barremian–lower Aptian sediments on the Galicia Margin.     

黄河三角洲城市建设规划中气候资源的利用

在对黄河三角洲1961～2000年40年气候资源调查分析的基础上，以其中心城市东营为例，进一步分析了风向在城市布局规划中的指导作用，用统计方法估算了不同频率和高程的风载荷，对日照间距系数、采暖通风和空调室外气象参数等进行计算，为城市建设部门充分应用风、光、热等气候资源条件，趋利避害，进行合理规划设计，提供科学依据。     

Statistical Analysis on Depth Distribution Model of Earthquake Hypocenters

In order to improve reliability of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, shallow earthquake (depth <70 km) data, recorded with orientation precision grades 1 and 2 by modern instrument and containing depth information after 1970, are selected as statistical samples, meanwhile, North China seismic region, Central China seismic region, South China seismic region, Xinjiang seismic region and Qinghai-Xizang Plateau seismic region are chosen as statistical units to study the depth distribution characteristics of shallow earthquakes. Considering the differences of depth distribution characteristics of earthquakes with different magnitudes, the following magnitude intervals are adopted to analyze earthquakes with different magnitude scales, respectively: M S=2.0～2.9, M S=3.0～3.9, M S=4.0～4.9, M S=5.0～5.9 and M S=6.0～6.9. The results show that hypocenter depths are normally distributed by and large around the mean depth of the corresponding seismic region. The probabilistic distribution curves of earthquake depth in West China are wider than those in East China. The probabilistic distribution deviation, σ, of West China is greater than those of East China, that is, earthquakes in West China have a wider range in terms of depth. There is also a tendency that the absolute value of mean hypocenter depth increases with the magnitude by and large.     

Variance–Covariance Matrix of the Experimental Variogram: Assessing Variogram Uncertainty

Assessment of the sampling variance of the experimental variogram is an important topic in geostatistics as it gives the uncertainty of the variogram estimates. This assessment, however, is repeatedly overlooked in most applications mainly, perhaps, because a general approach has not been implemented in the most commonly used software packages for variogram analysis. In this paper the authors propose a solution that can be implemented easily in a computer program, and which, subject to certain assumptions, is exact. These assumptions are not very restrictive: second-order stationarity (the process has a finite variance and the variogram has a sill) and, solely for the purpose of evaluating fourth-order moments, a Gaussian distribution for the random function. The approach described here gives the variance–covariance matrix of the experimental variogram, which takes into account not only the correlation among the experiemental values but also the multiple use of data in the variogram computation. Among other applications, standard errors may be attached to the variogram estimates and the variance–covariance matrix may be used for fitting a theoretical model by weighted, or by generalized, least squares. Confidence regions that hold a given confidence level for all the variogram lag estimates simultaneously have been calculated using the Bonferroni method for rectangular intervals, and using the multivariate Gaussian assumption for K-dimensional elliptical intervals (where K is the number of experimental variogram estimates). A general approach for incorporating the uncertainty of the experimental variogram into the uncertainty of the variogram model parameters is also shown. A case study with rainfall data is used to illustrate the proposed approach.     

Estimating Pearson's Correlation Coefficient with Bootstrap Confidence Interval from Serially Dependent Time Series

Pearson's correlation coefficient, r_xy, is often used when measuring the influence of one time-dependent variable on another in bivariate climate time series. Thereby, positive serial dependence (persistence) and unknown data distributions impose a challenge for obtaining accurate confidence intervals for r_xy. This is met by the presented approach, employing the nonparametric stationary bootstrap with an average block length proportional to the maximum estimated persistence time of the data. A Monte Carlo experiment reveals that this method can produce accurate (in terms of coverage) confidence intervals (of type bias-corrected and accelerated). However, since persistence reduces the number of independent observations, substantially more data points are required for achieving an accuracy comparable to a situation without persistence. The experiment further shows that neglecting serial dependence may lead to serious coverage errors. The presented method proves robust with respect to distributional shape (lognormal/normal) and time spacing (uneven/even). The method is used to confirm that a previous finding of a correlation between solar activity and Indian Ocean monsoon strength in early Holocene is valid. A further result is that the correlation between sunspot number and cosmogenic ¹⁰Be concentration vanishes after approximately 1870.     

A Comparative Study of the Atmospheric Layers below First Lifting Condensation Level for Instantaneous Pre-Monsoon Thunderstorm Occurrence at Agartala (23o30’N, 91o15’E) and Ranchi (23o14’N, 85o14’E) of India

An attempt has been made to investigate the role of vertical wind shear, corrective instability and the thermodynamic parameter (θes - θe) below the first lifting condensation level (FLCL) in the occurrence of instanta-neous premonsoon thunderstorm over Agartala (AGT) and Ranchi (RNC) at 12 GMT Radiosonde data of 1988 have been utilized here. The study has however been confined to 1000 hPa-500 hPa range at most Here the convectively unstable layers with positive vertical wind shear upto 500 hPa have been termed as ‘Fa?vourable Layers’ (FL) and the level at which an initially stable layer turns out to be convectively unstable for the first time has been termed as ‘Transition Level’ (TL). It is observed that the changes in vertical wind shear are positive at TL at the time of occurrence of thunderstorm (TS) and the corresponding change is negative on fair-weather situa?tion Moreover, the 90% confidence interval for (θes - θe) reveals that for AGT the upper layer thermodynamic characteristic is important at the time of occurrence of TS whereas for RNC, the value of (θes - θe) at the surface is much more effective     

Physical background on estimating b value

The G-R relation lgN=a-bM (1954) is an empirical formula used widely in the seismicity research. But the linearity of b curves has great difference in different time and space domains. An interested question in this paper is that in how large a space-time-strength domain the b value has certain physical connotation. This study told us that we can get optimal statistical results of b value in those space-time domains which can develop correspondent strong shocks with magnitude interval (M _s≥8.5, 8.0≤M _s<8.5, 7.0≤M _s<8.0). Thus, the possible seismogenic areas in which strong shocks with different magnitude intervals develop can be inferred in different regions of the mainland of China. Finally, some new problems are proposed, such as the delimitation of seismic province, the seismicity parameter determination in seismic hazard analysis and in earthquake predictions by using b value. Contribution No. 96A-0074, Institute of Geophysics, SSB, China.     

1679年三河-平谷8级地震发震断层的古地震及其重复间隔

通过大探槽开挖和断层陡坎分析，揭示出发生于１６７９年８级地震的新夏垫断层自距今约２万ａ以来共发生了４次地震事件。前两次为砂体液化显示的事件；后两次为可见直接断错证据的事件。分析得到的１６７９年地震最大垂直位移为１．７５ｍ，前１６７９年事件为１．４１ｍ，是两次震级非常接近的特征地震。４次事件发生的时间分别为距今约２００００，１３０００，７５００和３１７ａ，平均重复间隔时间为（６５６１±６９１）ａ，显示了准周期重复的特征     

地震空间分布函数的确定方法研究

选取了几个反央西南地区地震活动的时间和空间特征的因子，因子量化全部建立在因子与实际地震发生的统计关系上，使因子具有一定的概率预报意义和相互对比的基础，另外还对部分因子的预报效能了作评估和修正，采用３种方法分别求出了３套地震空间分布函数，并作了要相互比较。