中国石油资源空间流动的驱动机制分析

采用重心分析方法、指示克里金内插方法和空间相关系数,探讨了中国石油资源空间流动的驱动机制,结果表明：① 多数年份内,汇地系统重心演变受经济发展的影响更大;而2003 年以后经济重心对源地系统重心的影响也在逐渐加强。② 从源地系统空间相关分析来看,石油生产-进口量的区域差异,决定了源地系统与国内油田和国内油田-石油进口港（口岸） 的空间相关程度;而石油流动要素的空间分布及演变,对空间相关系数的数值变化产生一定影响,这使得源地系统在1985 和1995 年主要由单一国内油田驱动机制所决定,在1999、2003 和2009 年则由国内油田-进口石油港（口岸）的双重驱动机制所决定。③ 对汇地系统来说,国内炼厂的资源需求是汇地系统空间格局演变的重要驱动力。     

洞庭湖区生态承载力系统耦合协调度时空分异

不同时空尺度下,生态承载力系统耦合协调度呈现不同差异和变化。在阐述耦合协调发展作用机理的基础上,构建了耦合协调度评价指标体系,利用容量耦合模型对洞庭湖区生态承载力系统耦合协调度进行时空分析。结果表明：① 时序变化上,2001~2012年洞庭湖区生态承载力系统耦合度和耦合协调度变化趋势基本趋同,大致呈现同步稳定上升态势,耦合度均值达0.499,处于拮抗阶段;耦合协调度均值达0.463,处于中度耦合协调阶段;年均增长率上,耦合度达3.35%,大于耦合协调度的3.05%。表明生态承载力内部系统耦合作用和协同效应明显,并且耦合作用的强度大于内部协调性。② 空间分异上,17个县域的耦合度出现了低水平耦合、拮抗阶段和磨合阶段3种状态,3种耦合状态的县域个数和区间变化呈现不同的差异。耦合协调度出现了低度耦合协调、中度耦合协调和高度耦合协调3种状态,其变化状况基本上与耦合度类似,但从协调状态的县域个数和区间变化来看,耦合协调度的变化稍滞后于耦合度的变化,空间分布与耦合度分布特征基本相似,高、低值区的空间分布由西南向东北大致呈现较低-高-低-高-较低的“M”型基本格局。③ 空间组合上,17个县域出现了低耦合低协调区、中耦合低协调区、中耦合中协调区、高耦合中协调区和高耦合高协调区5种空间组合类型,其基本空间格局是,低耦合低协调区集中分布在洞庭湖区中部和西南部,高耦合高协调区则沿京广线、石长线和常岳高速三线呈“三足鼎立”布局,其它不同组合类型则集中于高耦合高协调区外围呈“零星状”分布。     

高层建筑荷载引发地面沉降与隆起变形三维数值模拟

针对地下水埋深较浅地区,由高层建筑荷载引起的土体变形问题,以比奥固结理论为基础,结合土体非线性流变理论,将土体本构关系推广到黏弹塑性;同时考虑土体力学参数及水力参数的动态变化关系,建立了高层建筑荷载引发地面沉降与隆起变形的三维有限元数值模型,详细研究了高层建筑荷载影响下的土体变形特征及此过程中土体力学参数及水力学参数的变化特征。结果表明：由高层建筑荷载引起的地面沉降呈现漏斗状,以建筑物中心为漏斗中心,高层建筑荷载施加初期,高层建筑周围出现隆起,到达最大值后隆起逐渐消失;高层建筑底部浅层土体孔隙度、渗透系数及泊松比均呈现缓慢减小趋势,弹性模量呈现缓慢增大趋势;而高层建筑周围浅层土体的孔隙度、渗透系数及泊松比呈现先增大后减小的变化趋势,弹性模量则呈现先减小后增大的变化趋势;高层建筑影响区域浅部土体参数的变化趋势与土体的回弹及压缩有关。     

大陆边缘成矿

大陆陆壳的形成与发展经历了陆核—地块 (台 )—联合大陆—大陆裂解—陆缘增生—碰撞造山的演化过程。地壳通过不均一性分异而形成大陆型和大洋型地壳,大陆裂解、洋壳向陆缘消减和陆 -陆碰撞拼接则形成具有不同构造特征的大陆边缘。以中国大陆已存在的 3条陆壳对接消减带为界划分了 5个大陆边缘构造带,进一步区分出 13个次一级的边缘构造区及其内的 53个时空配置结构,并据现有矿产地计算了边缘构造区的矿产发现几率。将中国大陆边缘划分为离散型、会聚型、对接型和转换型 4类,总结了其成矿系列类型专属;认为大陆边缘普遍性成矿有利因素的耦合对成矿至关重要,而最佳耦合的机制及其发生在大陆边缘区的时空位置是圈定有利成矿靶区的关键科学问题。     

理解前兆异常变化机理和地震短临前兆

本文概要介绍了国内外近几年在地壳形变一地球自转日长变化十年尺度相关性、静寂地震、前驱波三方面的重要研究发现,并分析了这三项研究发现在地震前兆异常机理认识中的作用。初步分析表明：深部核幔耦合作用引起的地壳形变、地球物理场十年尺度波动,是数年至十年尺度地震场兆波动性变化的重要调制因素之一;源于断层脆韧转换带(过渡层)的静寂地震一慢地震缓慢破裂过程,是数天至数月尺度地震短期异常变化产生的重要原因;源于脆韧转换层上部或弹脆性层薄弱部分慢地震过程所辐射出来的低频前驱波(慢地震波),是目前已发现的可重复出现的短临前兆信号,具有数小时至7天左右的地震短临预报指标意义。     

柴达木盆地北缘盆-山耦合特征及对砂岩型铀成矿的控制作用

柴达木盆地北缘盆地-造山带体系在西北地区有一定的代表性,盆-山耦合过程与成矿的研究是当代地质科学研究的热点之一。以盆-山耦合体系演化、铀矿化目的层改造作用、砂岩型铀成矿理论为基础,将柴达木盆地北缘划分成四大构造单元,讨论了主要构造运动时期的盆-山耦合特征,分析了盆-山耦合体系对侏罗系、古近系和新近系的改造作用,指出了该区的主要找矿类型。     

Kinematics of Convergence and Deformation in Luzon Island and Adjacent Sea Areas:2-D Finite-Element Simulation

The Luzon Island is a volcanic arc sandwiched by the eastward subducting South China Sea and the northwestward subducting Philippine Sea plate.Through experiments of plane-stress,elastic,and 2-dimensional finite-element modeling,we evaluated the relationship between plate kinematics and present-day deformation of Luzon Island and adjacent sea areas.The concept of coupling rate was applied to define the boundary velocities along the subduction zones.The distribution of velocity fields calculated in our models was compared with the velocity field revealed by recent geodetic (GPS) observations.The best model was obtained that accounts for the observed velocity field within the limits of acceptable mechanical parameters and reasonable boundary conditions.Sensitivity of the selection of parameters and boundary conditions were evaluated.The model is sensitive to the direction of convergence between the South China Sea and the Philippine Sea plates,and to different coupling rates in the Manila trench,Philippine trench and eastern Luzon trough.We suggest that a change of±15° of the di rection of motion of the Philippine Sea plate can induce important changes in the distribution of the computed displacement trajectories,and the movement of the Philippine Sea plate toward azimuth330° best explains the velocity pattern observed in Luzon Island.In addition,through sensitivity analysis we conclude that the coupling rate in the Manila trench is much smaller compared with the rates in the eastern Luzon trough and the Philippine trench.This indicates that a significant part of momentum of the Philippine Sea plate motion has been absorbed by the Manila trench;whereas,a part of the momentum has been transmitted into Luzon Island through the eastern Luzon trough and the Philippine trench.     

地壳形变与密度变化耦合运动探析

为整体解释现代大地测量数据,提出了地壳变形与密度变化耦合运动的基本思想;分析了地壳变形与密度变化耦合运动的基本理论;导出了由地壳形变与密度变化耦合运动引起的重力时间变化一般严格公式。     

A study of formation and development of one kind of cyclone on the mei-yu (Baiu) front

The paper presents one diagnosis of baroclinity and the coupling of jets during the developing process of a cyclone that occurred on the mei-yu (Baiu) front around the end of the second stage of the mei-yu (Baiu)in 1998. Results have shown that: (1) The advantageous changes of upper-level large-scale circulation caused the appearance and maintenance of the coupling between the upper-level jet (ULJ) and lower-level jet (LLJ) over the cyclone‘s area. The coupling of jets in this case possesses some different characteristics from previous cases. Moreover, the coupling between the ULJ and LLJ caused the intensification of both lower-level convergence and upper-level divergence, which was favorable for the development of this cyclone. (2) From the analysis of the voricity budget, the role of lower-level convergence in the development of the cyclone was emphasized. Divergent wind in the lower troposphere was a direct contributor to the development of the cyclone. (3) During the development of the cyclone, cold air and warm air were_active over the cyclone‘s domain. Although this cyclone occurred at the mei-yu (Baiu) front, its development assumed baroclinity to a certain extent, which was just the main difference between this kind of cyclone and the first kind of low which is usually barotropic (or quasi-barotropic). (4) In recent years, studies on mei-yu front lows have paid more attention to the lower troposphere. In this paper, the analysis of the energy budget further supports this point: the certain effect of baroclinity forcing in the upper troposphere on mei-yu front lows cannot be ignored.     

强矿震地球物理过程及短临阶段预测的研究

基于中尺度地震实验场高密度数字地震和前兆台网对抚顺老虎台矿两次强矿震进行连续的现场观测,用地震学方法和小波工具分析强矿震孕震过程采集到的数据,提取短临阶段的异常信息;用区域强震震源机制解、强矿震的震源机制解、极近场震源调查、震源高精度定位、现场绝对地应力测量、三维有限差分数值试验方法,分析强矿震的孕震应力场环境和震源机制;通过定量观察采矿与矿震活动的相关性,分析强矿震的直接诱发原因．提出地质构造环境、地应力场和采矿活动共同作用诱发强矿震的机理和局部应力场在孕育该震过程起主导作用、卸荷重力应力场抑或耦合了高压瓦斯的膨胀起主要诱发作用的观点;发现煤炭深部开采条件下,矿震和瓦斯存在密切的相关性,有可能存在一种开采卸荷和高压瓦斯气体膨胀耦合作用诱发的新型矿震——卸胀耦合型矿震;提取到震前短临阶段存在的b值、η值、频次、波速比等可信的地震学异常和定点潮汐形变前兆异常,对异常信息的提取方法和强矿震短临阶段的预测进行了探讨．