Assessment of the hydrological status of Doñana dune ponds: a natural World Heritage Site under threat

ABSTRACT

The hydrological response of shallow ponds to groundwater withdrawal has been of growing concern in the Doñana National Park (southern Spain) in recent decades. This study examines the role of groundwater in maintaining the hydroperiod (i.e. the hydrological regime) in the park’s main dune ponds, by quantifying the groundwater fluxes to/from them. The hydrological characterization was performed by applying different methodologies. Daily hydrological balances registered in the ponds revealed groundwater contributions ranging from 80% of the total water inflows (i.e. groundwater discharge) to a net groundwater recharge from the ponds to the aquifer, and enabled the studied water bodies to be classified as discharge or recharge systems. The recharge systems must have been influenced by the lowering of piezometric levels due to groundwater extraction for urban supply in a nearby coastal resort.     

On the use of mean monthly runoff to predict the flow–duration curve in ungauged catchments

ABSTRACT

We examine the applicability of predicting the daily flow–duration curve (FDC) using mean monthly runoff represented in its stochastic form (MM_FDC) to aid in predictions in ungauged basins, using long-term hydroclimatic data at 73 catchments of humid climate, in the eastern USA. The analysis uses soil hydrological properties, soil moisture storage capacity and the predominant runoff generation mechanism. The results show that MM_FDC did not distinguish the shapes of the upper and lower thirds of the FDC. The upper third is where the precipitation pattern and the antecedent moisture conditions are dominant, while the lower third is where drought-induced low flows and the evapotranspiration effect are prevalent. It is possible to use the MM_FDC to predict the middle third of the FDC (exceedence probabilities between 33% and 66%). The method is constrained by the catchment flow variability (slope of FDC), which changes in accordance with landscape properties and the predominant runoff generation mechanism.     

3D SPH numerical simulation of the wave generated by the Vajont rockslide

A 3D numerical modeling of the wave generated by the Vajont slide, one of the most destructive ever occurred, is presented in this paper. A meshless Lagrangian Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) technique was adopted to simulate the highly fragmented violent flow generated by the falling slide in the artificial reservoir. The speed-up achievable via General Purpose Graphic Processing Units (GP-GPU) allowed to adopt the adequate resolution to describe the phenomenon. The comparison with the data available in literature showed that the results of the numerical simulation reproduce satisfactorily the maximum run-up, also the water surface elevation in the residual lake after the event.Moreover, the 3D velocity field of the flow during the event and the discharge hydrograph which overtopped the dam, were obtained.     

Saturated area dynamics and streamflow generation from coupled surface–subsurface simulations and field observations

A distributed physically-based model describing coupled surface–subsurface flows is applied to an instrumented catchment to investigate the links between runoff generation processes and the dynamics of saturated areas. The spatial characterization of the system is obtained through geophysical measurements and in situ observations. The model is able to reproduce the dynamics of the system through the calibration of only few parameters with a clear physical interpretation, providing a solid basis for our numerical investigations. Such investigations demonstrate the important control exerted by surface topography on the time evolution of saturated area patterns, mainly mediated by topographic curvature, that dictates both the dominant streamflow generation process at the local scale and the connection-disconnection dynamics of saturated areas. The relation between hillslope water storage and streamflow, Q = f(V), is shown to be highly hysteretical and dependent on the mean saturation of the catchment: higher degrees of saturation tend to yield one-to-one relationships between streamflow and water storage. On the contrary, streamflow-water storage relations are importantly affected by the specific configuration of saturated areas connected to the outlet when the system is far from complete saturation. This observation contradicts common assumptions of a one-to-one relationship Q = f(V) often used to justify widely observed power-law Q vs. dQ/dt recession curves. Furthermore, even when Q = f(V) becomes unique at high degrees of saturation, no power-law form emerged in our runs, speculatively because of the small size of the catchment formed by a single incision and the corresponding hillslope.     

An alternative depth-integrated formulation for granular avalanches over temporally varying topography with small curvature

An alternative formulation is proposed for deriving depth-integrated equations for gravity-driven granular avalanches over a non-trivial topography with small curvature. The coordinate system of Bouchut and Westdickenberg (2004 Bouchut, F and Westdickenberg, M. 2004. Gravity driven shallow water models for arbitrary topography. Commun. Math. Sci., 2: 359–389. [Crossref] , [Google Scholar]) is combined with the unified coordinate (UC) method, so that it can evolve in accordance with the entrainment–deposition processes at the basal surface. The resultant mass and momentum equations are formulated as a conservation system of the Cartesian components of the conservative physical variables. The motion of the flows is driven by the basal topography-induced pressure, pressure gradient, and resisted by the basal friction. The best benefit of this formulation is that it greatly simplifies the computation of the varying coordinate orientations. The features and advantages of this formulation are illustrated by the sliding-mass examples where we simulate the motion of a finite mass of granular material sliding down an inclined chute, running through a transition zone, and being deposited onto a horizontal plane.     

Analysis of aftershock sequences in South and Southeastern Spain

A probabilistic modeling is used to analyze the spatio-temporal behavior of eleven aftershock sequences occurred in South and Southeastern Spain. This study focuses on the analysis of two seismicity parameters: the b-value of the frequency-magnitude distribution, and the p-value, explaining the temporal decay rate of aftershocks. The estimated b values range between 0.77 ± 0.05 and 1.18 ± 0.10 close to the typical b-values of the aftershock frequency-magnitude relationship b ≈ 1.0. The estimated p-values range between 0.75 ± 0.03 and 1.43 ± 0.10 showing broad regimes of the temporal decay of aftershocks. The modified Bath’s law used to analyze the energy partitioning, suggests that a large fraction of the accumulated energy is released in the mainshock and relatively small fraction of energy is released during aftershock sequence, for example 80% of the total energy is released during the Mula 1999 mainshock, 88% during Bullas 2002 mainshock and 87% during La Paca 2005 mainshock. The fractal dimension D₂ is estimated using the correlation integral, and then used to derive the slip ratio, as the ratio of the slip occurred on primary fault segment to the total slip. For example, we obtained a slip ratio equal to 71% for the Mula 1999 aftershock sequence, 61% for the Bullas 2002 event, 58% for the La Paca 2005 aftershock, 50% for the Lorca 2011 sequence and 63% for the sequence triggered by the Gador 2002 mainshock.Finally, the correlations between the fractal dimension, the b-value and the p-value is analyzed, and the Aki’s relation D = 3b/c is discussed as well.     

Scale dependent effects in resource selection by crop-raiding Japanese macaques in Niigata Prefecture,Japan

A resource selection function is one that yields values proportional to the probability of use of a resource unit. This quantity is influenced by the heterogeneity of landscape structures, which occurs over multiple spatial scales. To provide input into wildlife management strategies, we investigated the scale dependency and functional responses of Japanese macaques using multiple scale analysis. The multiple buffers with radii of 100, 500, 1000, 1500, 2000, and 2500 m were defined as the spatial scale. Crop damage was predicted at the within-home range scale, using the Random Forests algorithm with environmental variables linked to resource selection of Japanese macaques. Sixteen environmental variables were defined, covering aspects of landscape configuration, human disturbance, topography, and adopted countermeasures. Crop damage was most accurately predicted within a buffer zone of 1000 m, although radii exceeding 1000 m were also highly accurate. Although the importance of variables differed among spatial extents, the functional responses for each environmental variable were independent of spatial extent. These results suggest that the limiting factors of crop damage depend on spatial extent, while functional responses in resource selection remain constant across spatial extents. We also compared a multi-scale gradient map with a typical binary map to demonstrate the uncertainty in damage predictions at different spatial scales. Our results may aid wildlife management planning, for which differences in resource selection across different spatial scales are critically important.     

Gender bias in the convergence dynamics of the regional homicide rates in Mexico

The geography of violence in Mexico has changed in recent years because of an explosive increase in regional homicide rates since 2006. This study relies on spatial statistical data analysis to address the issue of convergence in homicide victim rates across Mexican municipalities from 2001 to 2010. Based on the results of spatial panel modeling, we conclude that despite strong regional disparities in murders, municipal-level homicide growth rates display a pattern of convergence with spatial interaction features. This convergent pattern is gender-specific; the homicide growth rates for females show stronger convergence than those for males when local and regional factors are not considered. We postulate that homicide growth dynamics among females more closely follow the predictions of the “modernization hypothesis” than do the dynamics among males. This finding suggests that violence (specifically, homicides) against women in Mexico is driven by underlying factors other than short-term factors, such as drug cartel dynamics, and regional factors, such as local institutions and governments. The data might support the long-established feminist hypothesis that contends that violence against women follows specific dynamics that are different from the dynamics of violence against men.     

Trends of summer daily maximum temperature extremes in Turkey

This work seeks to understand the variability of warm and cool events during summer in Turkey. Daily maximum air temperature data from 97 weather stations were analyzed to determine percentile threshold values (99th, 95th, 90th, 1st, 5th, and 10th) at each station. Trends in the percentile values were determined using the Mann–Kendall trend test. The analysis demonstrates an increase in frequency of warm, hot, and extremely hot days, whereas cool, cold, and extremely cold days show a decreasing trend. Increasing trends are statistically significant at the 0.05 and 0.01 levels for 13 and 46% of the stations, respectively. Significant decreasing trends have been detected at 0.05 and 0.01 levels for 19 and 15% of 97 stations, respectively. Analysis of the observations shows that the number of warm and hot event started to increase in the 1970s. Warm events are comparatively more numerous than cold events in western and southern parts of the country.     

武汉气候舒适度与游客网络关注度年内变化相关性分析

气候舒适度对旅游地旅游需求量及游客网络关注度具有重要影响．通过对武汉市气候舒适度的评价,并结合2009-2011年游客网络关注度统计资料,采用OLS方法构建了游客网络关注度月指数与气候舒适度的回归模型．研究表明,武汉市气候舒适度指数以及游客网络关注度都呈现出“M”形变化特征,而且游客网络关注度月指数的气候弹性系数为0．883％．本研究为预测武汉市旅游需求量年内变化、游客接待和景区管理提供科学依据．