Statistical simulation analysis of the correlation between the annual estimated key regions with a certain seismic risk and the earthquakes in China

IntroductionEarthquake prediction is still one of most difficult problems in the world although the researches on it in China have been done for more than 30 years. A lot of experience, however, has been accumulated and some theoretical study on earthquake prediction conducted so that some prediction could be issued prior to earthquakes to obtain real effectiveness of mitigating disasters from these earthquakes to some extent, in China. The annual national consulting convention of earthquake …     

单侧破裂震源对地震动空间相关性影响的远场分析

将震源简化为有一定破裂长度的线状断层,定量研究了单侧破裂震源对地震动空间相关性的影响．依据波谱随空间坐标的展开式,得到了描述地震动场相关性的表达式．在远场假定下,给出了理论解析公式,并依据地震动Fourier谱随空间坐标的展开条件,得到了计算地震动场孔径的理论公式．最后,以一次地震为例,给出了孔径随震中距、方位角、频率变化的三维图象．      

全国年度地震重点危险区与地震相关性的统计模拟分析

用统计模拟的方法对1990～1997年全国年度重点危险区与地震的相关性进行了分析．由于统计模拟的方法有效地处理了地震和危险区的时空不均匀性,并且得到经运算105 次的统计模拟随机预报概率,将其与实际预报平均概率比较,得到较为客观的结果．结果表明:① 1990～1997年全国年度重点危险区的实际预报平均概率,比完全平均随机划定预报区的统计模拟平均随机概率高0.03719;② 考虑地震活动背景概率时,实际预报平均概率比危险区加权重的统计模拟平均概率高0.02183;③ 将中国大陆依地震分布不均匀性分为新疆西部地区、西南地区和其它地区３个区时,新疆西部地区的实际预报平均概率大大高出统计模拟平均随机概率,其差值为0.20962．      

Permian sequence stratigraphy of slope facies in southern Guizhou and chronostratigraphic correlation

The Permian in slope facies area of southern Guizhou consists of 16 third order sequences, which can be grouped as four sequence sets and further into two mesosequences. Most of them are delineated by conformable or submarine erosion surfaces, and well controlled by conodont and fusulinid zones. Four important sea-level falls are recognized in the area, which occur respectively at the basalSweetognathodus whitei zone, lowerS.aff.hanzhongensis zone, middleJinogondolella xuanhanensis zone and the basalClarkina yini zone. Among the recognized transgression events, three are regarded as the most significant. They occur respectively at the basalNeogondolella exculptus zone, basalJinogondolella nankingensis zone and the lowerClarkina postbitteri zone, and are all accompanied by faunal turnovers. The key surfaces in sequences can be used to fine-tune the boundaries of bio-chronozones, stages and series.     

Optimal Design of TMD Under Long-Term Nonstationary Wave Loading

—Traditionally,the use of a tuned mass damper(TMD)is to improve the surviability of the pri-mary structure under extraordinary loading environment while the design loading condition is describedby either a harmonic function or a stationary random process that can be fully characterized by a powerspectral density(PSD)function.Aiming at prolonging the fatigue life of an offshore platform,this studyconsiders an optimal design of TMD for the platform under long-term nonstationary loading due tolong-term random sea waves characterized by a probabilistic power spectral density(PPSD)function.Inprinciple,a PPSD could be derived based on numerous ordinary PSD functions;and each of them is treat-ed as realization of the corresponding PPSD.This study provides a theoretical development for theoptimal TMD design by minimizing the cost function to be the mean square value of the expectedlong-term response.A numerical example is presented to illustrate the developed design procedure.     

The effective source rocks in the north Cambay Basin, India

Source rock screening reveals five laterally extending potential sources (PS) in the Paleogene. The PSs are SR5 and SR6 in dominantly marine early Eocene to late Paleocene Cambay Shale formation, and SR7, SR8/9, and SR11/12 in dominantly freshwater early Paleocene Olpad formation. Only 3 PSs, SR11/12, SR8/9, and SR7 have attained vitrinite reflectance of 0.75% at 45, 7, and 2 mybp, respectively. Chromatographic and isotope data of oils and PS samples suggest that mainly the Olpad source rocks: SR7 and SR8/9 contributed to the discovered oils. The Cambay Shale source rocks, SR5 and SR6, contrary to the prevalent view, possibly have no significant contribution towards the accumulated oils.     

Wave propagation in fluid-saturated media: waveform and spectral analysis

A new numerical approach to the solution of waves propagating in a fluid-saturated medium, using Biot's theory as a foundation, has important implications for oil reservoir management and earthquake prediction. A numerical scheme is developed using an exponential transformation that explicitly treats the petrophysical and fluid properties of the medium within the framework of a generalized model. The scheme accounts for wave dissipation and velocity modifications. The numerical solution is used to perform numerical experiments to study the dynamic behaviour of waves in a fluid-saturated medium at well-logging frequencies (15 kHz). The results from the numerical experiments indicate that the degree of saturation by a high-viscosity fluid (HVF) such as oil, the temperature and the porosity of a medium strongly influence the spectral power distribution, frequency content and the velocity of waves propagating through the medium. An increase in HVF saturation causes enhanced attenuation of the low-frequency components, and increases the seismic velocity. An increase in porosity, however, enriches the low-frequency components and decreases the seismic velocity. A spectral quantification procedure is suggested and used to obtain information about the petrophysical and fluid properties of the medium from the spectral characteristics of the transmitted waveform. The procedure involves segmentation of the energy or power distribution of the transmitted waveforms into specified energy bands. The energy or power in these bands is then estimated. The extracted quantification variables are found to have strong correlations with the degree of HVF saturation, and the temperature and the porosity of the medium.     

不同浓度悬浮泥沙水体的光谱吸收特性模拟

悬浮泥沙的光学特性是影响内陆湖泊水色遥感的重要因素。利用光谱吸收衰减仪(AC-S)测得水池中悬浮泥沙浓度为2.13~1 442.40 mg/L的水体光谱吸收。在蓝、绿和红光波段,悬浮泥沙水体的平均比吸收系数分别为0.0161±0.0039 m2.g-1、0.0071±0.0020 m2.g-1和0.0025±0.0007 m2.g-1;指数拟合获得的Sm*值为0.0098±0.0011 nm-1,利用其模拟的比吸收光谱与实测光谱吻合效果较好,说明该Sm*取值对悬浮泥沙水体比吸收光谱的曲线斜率变化具有一定的参考价值。此外,建立了悬浮泥沙水体吸收系数a(440)m与其浓度的关系模型,R2达0.947,拟合精度较高;然而比吸收系数a*(440)m与泥沙浓度几乎无相关性。研究结果可为内陆水色遥感分析模型的建立提供重要的参数保障。     

基于模糊集分析的土壤质量指标高光谱反演

通过对横山县84个土样350~2 500 nm波段的光谱曲线分析,进行土壤质量12项指标的光谱反演。为获得有效光谱反演指标,利用单相关分析方法计算土壤质量指标与光谱反射率的相关系数并绘制相关系数曲线,根据极大相关性选择最佳波段作为光谱反演指标;剔除异常样本后,利用模糊识别理论建立土壤质量指标反演模型,通过优化得到模型的最佳参数。土壤质量12项指标光谱反演模型的平均检验误差均小于15%,说明模型的精度较高。     

基于谱间特征与比值型指数的水体影像识别分析

根据杨存建等人发现LandsatTM影像水体具有TM₂+TM₃>TM₄+TM₅的特征,本文以2000年福州市Landsat-TM为例,分析了水体及其他几类主要地物的光谱特性在影像中的表现特征,发现除水体外,居民地的影像以及山体影像也都具有TM₂+TM₃>TM₄+TM₅(即(TM₂+TM₃)/(TM₄+TM₅)>1)的特征,但是三者(TM₂+TM₃)/(TM₄+TM₅)的比值却存在着较大的差异,所以辅以适合的阈值(水体(TM₂+TM₃)/(TM₄+TM₅)>2.0,TM₂>40)可以将水体信息区别于其他背景地物。将该方法在含不同水体类型的福州市Landsat-TM遥感影像上进行实验,表明其可以将水体与全部居民地的阴影和山体阴影有效区分开来;同时可用于快速、简便和准确地提取城市和山区中的湿地水体信息,解决水体提取中难于消除居民地阴影与山体阴影的难题。