Seismic Hazard Analysis — Quo vadis?

The paper is dedicated to the review of methods of seismic hazard analysis currently in use, analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches. The review is performed from the perspective of a user of the results of seismic hazard analysis for different applications such as the design of critical and general (non-critical) civil infrastructures, technical and financial risk analysis. A set of criteria is developed for and applied to an objective assessment of the capabilities of different analysis methods. It is demonstrated that traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods have significant deficiencies, thus limiting their practical applications. These deficiencies have their roots in the use of inadequate probabilistic models and insufficient understanding of modern concepts of risk analysis, as have been revealed in some recent large scale studies. These deficiencies result in the lack of ability of a correct treatment of dependencies between physical parameters and finally, in an incorrect treatment of uncertainties. As a consequence, results of PSHA studies have been found to be unrealistic in comparison with empirical information from the real world. The attempt to compensate these problems by a systematic use of expert elicitation has, so far, not resulted in any improvement of the situation. It is also shown that scenario-earthquakes developed by disaggregation from the results of a traditional PSHA may not be conservative with respect to energy conservation and should not be used for the design of critical infrastructures without validation. Because the assessment of technical as well as of financial risks associated with potential damages of earthquakes need a risk analysis, current method is based on a probabilistic approach with its unsolved deficiencies.

Traditional deterministic or scenario-based seismic hazard analysis methods provide a reliable and in general robust design basis for applications such as the design of critical infrastructures, especially with systematic sensitivity analyses based on validated phenomenological models. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis incorporates uncertainties in the safety factors. These factors are derived from experience as well as from expert judgment. Deterministic methods associated with high safety factors may lead to too conservative results, especially if applied for generally short-lived civil structures. Scenarios used in deterministic seismic hazard analysis have a clear physical basis. They are related to seismic sources discovered by geological, geomorphologic, geodetic and seismological investigations or derived from historical references. Scenario-based methods can be expanded for risk analysis applications with an extended data analysis providing the frequency of seismic events. Such an extension provides a better informed risk model that is suitable for risk-informed decision making.     

Assessing soil erosion in Mediterranean karst landscapes of Lebanon using remote sensing and GIS

Maps showing the potential for soil erosion at 1:100,000 scale are produced in a study area within Lebanon that can be used for evaluating erosion of Mediterranean karstic terrain with two different sets of impact factors built into an erosion model. The first set of factors is: soil erodibility, morphology, land cover/use and rainfall erosivity. The second is obtained by the first adding a fifth factor, rock infiltration. High infiltration can reflect high recharge, therefore decreasing the potential of surface runoff and hence the quantity of transported materials. Infiltration is derived as a function of lithology, lineament density, karstification and drainage density, all of which can be easily extracted from satellite imagery. The influence of these factors is assessed by a weight/rate approach sharing similarities between quantitative and qualitative methods and depending on pair-wise comparison matrix.The main outcome was the production of factorial maps and erosion susceptibility maps (scale 1:100,000). Spatial and attribute comparison of erosion maps indicates that the model that includes a measure of rock infiltration better represents erosion potential. Field investigation of rills and gullies shows 87.5% precision of the model with rock infiltration. This is 17.5% greater than the precision of the model without rock infiltration. These results indicate the necessity and importance of integrating information on infiltration of rock outcrops to assess soil erosion in Mediterranean karst landscapes.     

Exurbia from the bottom-up: Confronting empirical challenges to characterizing a complex system

We describe empirical results from a multi-disciplinary project that support modeling complex processes of land-use and land-cover change in exurban parts of Southeastern Michigan. Based on two different conceptual models, one describing the evolution of urban form as a consequence of residential preferences and the other describing land-cover changes in an exurban township as a consequence of residential preferences, local policies, and a diversity of development types, we describe a variety of empirical data collected to support the mechanisms that we encoded in computational agent-based models. We used multiple methods, including social surveys, remote sensing, and statistical analysis of spatial data, to collect data that could be used to validate the structure of our models, calibrate their specific parameters, and evaluate their output. The data were used to investigate this system in the context of several themes from complexity science, including have (a) macro-level patterns; (b) autonomous decision making entities (i.e., agents); (c) heterogeneity among those entities; (d) social and spatial interactions that operate across multiple scales and (e) nonlinear feedback mechanisms. The results point to the importance of collecting data on agents and their interactions when producing agent-based models, the general validity of our conceptual models, and some changes that we needed to make to these models following data analysis. The calibrated models have been and are being used to evaluate landscape dynamics and the effects of various policy interventions on urban land-cover patterns.     

金川镍铜矿床数学模型对深部矿化变化趋势的指示

按矿化特征将金川X矿区主矿体分为致密块状特富矿、海绵状富矿和浸染状贫矿.应用MicroMine软件对3类矿化体分别建立了数学模型,并应用距离平方反比法对模型单元块进行了镍、铜品位估值.通过分析和对比矿床数学模型900m至1300m不同水平剖面上的Ni、Cu品位及Ni/Cu比值的变化,得出在X矿区的中部西侧是一个Ni和Cu的矿化中心,并且向深部Cu的矿化强度高于Ni.     

Detection of free vertical convection and double-diffusion in groundwater monitoring wells with geophysical borehole measurements

Two algorithms for in-situ detection and identification of vertical free convective and double-diffusive flows in groundwater monitoring wells or boreholes are proposed. With one algorithm the causes (driving forces) and with the other one the effects (convection or double-diffusion) of vertical transport processes can be detected based on geophysical borehole measurements in the water column. Five density-driven flow processes are identified: thermal, solutal, and thermosolutal convection leading to an equalization, as well as saltfingers and diffusive layering leading to an intensification of a vertical density gradient. The occurrence of density-driven transport processes could be proven in many groundwater monitoring wells and boreholes; especially shallow sections of boreholes or groundwater monitoring wells are affected dramatically by such vertical flows. Deep sections are also impaired as the critical threshold for the onset of a density-driven flow is considerably low. In monitoring wells or boreholes, several sections with different types of density-driven vertical flows may exist at the same time. Results from experimental investigations in a medium-scale testing facility with high aspect ratio (height/radius = 19) and from numerical modeling of a water column agree well with paramters of in-situ detected convection cells.     

舟山国家石油储备基地堆载预压加固效果分析

介绍了舟山国家石油储备基地试验区软基堆载预压大型现场试验结果,根据现场试验测得的数据,分析了软土地基堆载预压下沉降变化规律、分层沉降变化规律、深层土体位移变化规律、超静孔隙水压力变化规律,进一步探讨了根据应力和应变分析得到的地基固结性状,其中通过应变分析得到适用于储备基地的沉降经验系数m。结果表明,打设塑料排水板结合堆载预压处理软弱地基具有良好的效果。     

泌阳凹陷毕店地区核三段湖底扇与重力流沉积

毕店地区处于泌阳凹陷中部,属于深水沉积区,含砂率多数在20%.该区核桃园组三段Ⅲ～Ⅵ砂组可识别出湖泊相和湖底扇相,具有较为典型的重力流沉积特征.在取心井段中可寻找到液化流、滑塌、拉裂与掉落岩块的滑动证据;此外,发育砂纹层理、泄水沟构造及渫状构造,后二者见于鲍玛序列C段,它们和砂纹层理伴生,这些岩块的上下层均为鲍玛BE段组合的浊积岩所构成的平整岩层.层拉平的地震剖面也表明核三段Ⅳ砂组中的平行、亚平行地震相之间夹有透镜状或波状、眼球状反射结构,平行、亚平行反射解释为深水背景泥沉积,而波状与眼球状反射为典型的湖底扇.     

Numerical Experiment on Two-Dimensional Line Thermal

The time evolution of a two-dimensional line thermal-a turbulent flow produced by an initial element with signifi-cant buoyancy released in a large water body, is numerically studied with the two-equation k - e model for turbulence closure. The numerical results show that the thermal is characterized by a vortex pair flow and a kidney shaped concentra-tion structure with double peak maxima; the computed flow details and scalar mixing characteristics can be described by self-similar relations beyond a dimensionless time around 10. There are two regions in the flow field of a line thermal: a mixing region where the concentration of tracer fluid is high and the flow is turbulent and rotational with a pair of vortex eyes, and an ambient region where the concentration is zero and the flow is potential and well-described by a model of doublet with strength very close to those given by early experimental and analytical studies. The added virtual mass coeffi-cient of the thermal motion is found to be approximat     

一种计算台风风场的方法

揭示Ｒａｎｋｉｎｅ涡风场模式和Ｊｅｌｅｓｎｉａｎｓｋｉ风场模式之间的联系，并设计了一种台风风场分布模式，它的风速分布曲线落在Ｊｅｌｅｓｎｉａｎｓｋｉ和Ｒａｎｋｉｎｅ涡两个风场模式的风速分布曲线之间，具有一个既优于Ｊｅｌｅｓｎｉａｎｓｋｉ又优于Ｒａｎｋｉｎｅ涡的风速衰减速率，因此它同时克服了Ｒａｎｋｉｎｅ涡模式计算风速偏小和Ｊｅｌｅｓｎｉａｎｓｋｉ模式计算风速偏大的缺点，以一种比较合理的变化趋势向远方衰减，成为一个比较切合实际的台风风场分布模式。同时，文中提出的移行台风风场计算方法对宫崎正卫、上野武夫和Ｊｅｌｅｓｎｉａｎｓｋｉ模式都有一定的改进。     

在各类天气系统影响下石臼港沿岸波浪场的分布

本文查阅了从１９７３－１９８５，１３年的历史资料，对石臼港沿岸波浪场进行了详细的分类、统计分析和计算，提出了各类较强天气系统影响石（即指石臼港）的极端区域，同时获得了石港沿岸各类天气系统影响下的波浪分布特点以及波高计算式，为保障石港的生产及港口建设为石港的波了提供了有益的分析数据和预报手段。