中国沿海增减水的变化特征及与海平面变化的关系

本文通过对中国沿海25个观测站水位资料的分析,初步探讨了中国沿海1980-2012年增减水的变化特征及与海平面变化的关系。结果表明:（1）中国沿海增减水的季节变化特征明显,相邻站由于受到的气象状况相同,其沿海增减水变化的过程相近,但是变化幅度存在较大差异。从空间分布看,沿海增减水的变化幅度呈现中间大南北小的区域特征,自长江口至广东沿海,增减水的年变化幅度最大,年变幅平均为5.0~7.5 cm;南海周边及北部湾沿海,增减水的年变化幅度次之,年变幅平均为4.0~5.5 cm;自渤海至黄海沿海,增减水的年变化幅度较小,年变幅平均为3.3~3.5 cm。（2）从时间变化看,1980-2012年中国沿海年平均增减水长期基本没有趋势性变化,但明显存在2至5年的周期性变化信号,该信号的震荡幅度为0.1 cm。经过高频滤波后,对沿海月平均增减水序列与Niño3.4指数进行相关性分析,相关系数为-0.5,该相关系数通过了显著性检验,说明中国沿海的增减水变化与ENSO事件呈现负相关关系。（3）中国沿海增减水的长期变化及空间分布特征均与海平面变化不同。1980-2012年,中国沿海海平面的上升速率为2.9 mm/a,而增减水长期基本无趋势性变化;另外,其季节变化与海平面的季节变化从时间和区域上均不存在一致性。（4）但是,短期海平面的变化与增减水有关,并且增减水对短期海平面的贡献根据其具体情况而定,增水幅度大且持续时间长的过程对短期海平面有抬升作用,其贡献率最大可达65%;反之,减水幅度大且持续时间长的过程则对短期海平面有降低的作用。     

秦皇岛入海河流的污染水平、排放特征及对褐潮暴发区生源要素的影响

为查明秦皇岛近海大面积褐潮连年暴发的成因,在2013年3—11月对该地区主要入海河流和沿岸褐潮暴发区的生源要素污染进行了连续调查研究。调查结果表明,所调查入海河流普遍为劣V类地表水,总氮(TN)超标严重,按照氮污染程度由高到低排列依次为大蒲河洋河戴河石河汤河东沙河。各河流中的碳、氮、磷、硅等污染物浓度在时间变化上没有统一规律。基于综合污染指数法的评价结果显示,大蒲河和洋河为重度污染,戴河和汤河从先前的轻度污染加重为中度污染。从污染物入海量上看,TN和化学需氧量(COD)是排放量最高的两种河源污染物,其中溶解态氮占TN的74.6%。在所调查河流中,洋河和大蒲河分别贡献了TN的38.2%和33.2%,同时大蒲河还贡献了75.8%的活性磷酸盐和37.7%的活性硅酸盐,而75.9%的COD来自汤河、洋河和大蒲河。秦皇岛河源污染物排放在时间上较为集中在6—9月的丰水期,但各河流单独的排放具有随机性,没有统一的季节性规律,表现出受人为调控影响明显的特点。秦皇岛沿岸褐潮暴发区的生源要素变化与河源污染物排放有显著性相关(P=0.05)。     

2002-2014年间基于海平面变化的海洋增暖趋势研究

21世纪以来全球变暖进入停滞时期,研究表明,大量热量进入海洋深层是导致全球平均表面温度暂缓上升的主要原因。本文估计和研究了2002.4-2014.12间由热膨胀导致的海平面变化趋势,以此来探测海洋热含量的变化情况。研究使用GRACE重力卫星CSR RL05数据计算了全球海洋的水质量变化,并结合海平面异常数据,计算了由热量变化导致的海平面变化（Net SLA）。将Net SLA与Ishii温度数据计算的海洋热含量进行相关性分析后表明,Net SLA与海洋热含量存在高度相关性,相关系数最大值达0.95。考虑到海洋观测只能表现海洋上层2000m的热含量变化,而除去水质量变化的海平面变化则反映了整层海洋的热含量变化,是估计海洋增暖趋势快慢的有利工具。经计算得出,2002至2014年间南太平洋和南印度洋存在加速增暖趋势,而近年来南半球环状模的增强是导致其增暖的主要原因。     

固定式海洋平台结构风险设计方法综述

海洋平台的结构设计中主要考虑海洋环境和工作荷载作用,但近年来事故荷载的影响日益引起设计者关注。在此背景下,以固定式导管架平台结构为目标,综述当前针对事故荷载的风险设计方法的应用现状。首先论述在事故极限状态设计中应用风险分析的必要性;随后综述通用规范,如NORSOK、DNV、API等规范系列中对风险分析方法的使用现状,包括风险决策的不同层次、安全标准的各类形式,重在分析各类规范相关规定的异同,探讨各类方法的适用性;最后结合我国现状,论述若针对事故荷载编制基于风险方法的设计规范,目前尚存的问题,以及解决途径。     

150ka以来内蒙古河套古大湖沉积物粒度记录的湖泊水位变化

基于内蒙古河套盆地山前兵房沟湖相层剖面沉积物的粒度记录,结合~(14)C和光释光年代学测试,对比分析沉积物粒度敏感粒级及频率曲线特征,反演了河套古大湖150ka以来的湖泊水位变化。研究结果表明,河套古大湖水位变化经历了4个阶段:(1)初始形成阶段(150~130ka),河套古大湖处于浅湖环境,沉积物粒度由粗变细,湖泊处于水位上升期;(2)发展阶段(130~54ka),早期湖水面较高,处于深水环境,晚期沉积物粒度逐渐变粗,湖泊水位有所下降;(3)萎缩阶段(54~18ka),湖泊水位快速下降,细粒沉积物含量减少,中粗粒沉积物含量增大,湖泊水位迅速下降;(4)消亡阶段(18ka至今),由于山前活动断裂影响,阴山快速隆升,湖泊急剧萎缩,湖相层顶部被山间冲洪积物覆盖。控制河套古大湖湖泊水位变化的主要因素是构造运动和气候环境突变。     

Optical dating and soil micromorphology at MacCauley's Beach,New South Wales,Australia

The ability to position landscapes in a context of time and space is a particular goal of Quaternary science research. The lack of context for dating samples published previously for MacCauley's Beach, an important site for the reconstruction of Australian sea levels, warranted a re‐evaluation of both the site stratigraphy and chronology. In this study, we combined optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating of sedimentary quartz grains and soil micromorphology of the same samples to improve our understanding of the depositional history and chronology of the sediments. This combination allowed the contextualization of samples not only in time and space, but also in terms of their depositional histories. The latter is important in OSL dating, where pre‐, syn‐ and post‐depositional processes can all influence the accuracy and precision of the final age estimates. The sediment profile at MacCauley's Beach is made up of three major units. The basal mottled mud layer has undergone extensive pedogenesis since deposition, and only a minimum age of 14.7 ± 2.7 ka could be calculated. The overlying grey mud, with OSL ages from the bottom and top of the unit of 10.0 ± 0.7 and 7.7 ± 0.5 ka, respectively, shows evidence of soil structure collapse. This unit correspond to the onset of the mid‐Holocene sea‐level high stand for this region. The overlying sand layer was first deposited at 7.5 ± 0.4 ka, with deposition continuing beyond 6.6 ± 0.4 ka. Not only does the chronology presented constrain the timing of deposition (and the extent of post‐depositional processes) at MacCauley's Beach, but the methodological approach used here can be applied to any site to aid in the interpretation of formation processes and assess their influence on OSL age determination. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A meta‐analysis of reef island response to environmental change on the Great Barrier Reef

Reef islands on the Great Barrier Reef are influenced by a range of environmental factors. A meta‐analysis of 103 islands is presented to express variation in island size (area and volume) as a function of latitudinal and cross shelf gradients in regional oceanographic factors (exposure to incident waves, tidal range and tropical cyclone frequency) and local physical factors (position on the shelf, area, length and depth of supporting reef platform, vegetative cover). Models performed well for unvegetated sandcays (R² = 0.89), vegetated sandcays (R² = 0·72) and low wooded islands (R² = 0.78), with a moderate level of variation explained when all islands were simultaneously regressed (R² = 0.58). Future island dynamics were simulated for anticipated changes in cyclone regime, wave activity and sea level. For 38 islands mapped on the 1973 Royal Society and Universities of Queensland Expedition to the Northern Great Barrier Reef, change over the same 22 year period (1973–1995) was determined and the relative magnitude of observed and modelled changes was compared and found to be consistent through rank correlation analysis (Γ = 0.84 for unvegetated sandcays, Γ = 0.81 for vegetated sandcays). Simulations of island area or volume change from 2000 to 2100 indicated that under a 30% decrease in tropical cyclone activity, unvegetated sandcays continue to accrete at a lower rate, whereas all island types erode under a 38% increase in tropical cyclone activity. Vegetated sandcays initially accrete at higher levels of cyclone activity, entering an erosive state with a 60% increase in activity. Low wooded islands are unresponsive to environmental changes modelled. A sensitivity analysis of vegetated and unvegetated sandcays indicated that the presence of vegetation increases the tropical cyclone activity threshold at which islands begin to erode. Greatest sedimentary losses occur within the central band of high cyclone activity between Cooktown and Mackay. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Prograded foredunes of Western Australia's macro‐tidal coast – implications for Holocene sea‐level change and high‐energy wave impacts

The Holocene evolution of the Canning Coast of Western Australia has largely been overlooked so far mainly due to its remoteness and low population density. We report on new data from a sequence of foredunes inside the macro‐tidal Admiral Bay, 110 km southwest of Broome. Based on sediment cores, differential global positioning system (dGPS)‐based elevation transects, and stratigraphical analyses on outcrops of the relict foredunes, we aim at reconstructing Holocene coastal changes and relative sea levels (RSLs), as well as identifying and dating imprints of extreme‐wave events. Sedimentary analyses comprise the documentation of bedding structures, foraminiferal content and macrofaunal remains, grain size distribution, and organic matter. The chronological framework is based on 26 carbon‐14 accelerator mass spectrometry (¹⁴C‐AMS) datings. Marine flooding of the pre‐Holocene surface landward of the 2.5 km‐wide foredune barriers occurred 7400–7200 cal bp , when mangroves colonized the area. After only 200–400 years, a high‐energy inter‐tidal environment established and prevailed until c. 4000 cal bp , before turning into the present supralittoral mudflat. During that time, coastal regression led to beach progradation and the formation of aligned foredunes. Drivers of progradation were a stable RSL or gradual RSL fall after the mid‐Holocene and a positive sand budget. The foredunes overlie upper beach deposits located up to >2 m above the present upper beach level and provide evidence for a higher mid‐Holocene RSL. Discontinuous layers of coarse shells and sand are intercalated in the foredunes, indicating massive coastal flooding events. One such layer was traced over three dune ridges and dated to c. 1700–1550 cal bp . However, it seems that most tropical cyclones induce net erosion rather than deposition at aligned foredunes and thus, they are only suitable for reconstructing temporal variability if erosional features or sedimentation reliably tied to these events can be identified and dated accurately. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

城镇化水平与制造业空间分布——基于中国省级面板数据的实证研究

基于2001~2011 年中国省区面板数据,聚焦于城镇化水平与中国制造业空间分布。研究表明,城镇化水平是中国制造业空间分布的重要影响因素之一,两者之间存在倒"U"型关系,以中国各省区制造业产值占全国制造业总产值的份额反映中国制造业的空间分布,当城镇化水平超过36.26%后,城镇化水平的进一步提高不再推动制造业份额上升,反而会导致其下降。进一步研究发现,劳动密集型、资本密集型和技术密集型3 种类型制造业在空间分布、份额变化和与城镇化水平的相关性上均存在一定程度的差异性,并印证了制造业内部存在由劳动密集型、资本密集型向技术密集型转型升级的基本规律。此外,交通设施水平、区位条件等因素也会对中国制造业空间分布产生影响。     

金融空间联系及K-means聚类中心等级识别研究——以长三角为例

以2001年、2006年、2011年长三角城市金融机构人民币存款、贷款额数为样本,构建金融空间联系模型,定量分析长三角城市金融空间联系分异特征。在此基础上构建K-means金融中心等级识别模型,识别长三角城市金融中心等级。研究表明：① 2001-2011年长三角城市金融“质量”空间趋势较为稳定,总体呈现东部高于西部,中部高于南、北部的倒U形分布。② 金融空间联系最大引力线联结格局较为稳定。③ 金融空间联系网络结构格局变化显著,主要从简单的“折线型”空间结构逐渐发展成简单的、复杂的“网络型”空间结构。④ 长三角金融城市中心等级空间分布格局稳定,以上海市金融中心最为突出。