Statistical significance of modal parameters of bridge systems identified from strong motion data

Modal parameters of structural systems have commonly been determined using system identification (SI) methods for damage detection and health monitoring. For determining the deterioration of the integrity of structural systems correctly, modal parameters of a healthy structure have to be obtained with adequate certainty so that these parameters can be used as reliable references for the healthy system to compare with those of the damaged system. In this study, the statistical significance of modal parameters identified using strong motion time histories recorded on two bridge structures is assessed. The confidence intervals of identified modal frequencies and damping ratios are obtained using Monte Carlo simulations and sensitivity analyses in conjunction with eigenrealization algorithm. The dependence of the statistical bounds on model parameters is examined. The effect of using different number of sensors on the statistical significance is evaluated using simulated time history data from a validated finite element model of a bridge. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Neural network and wavelet conjunction model for modelling monthly level fluctuations in Turkey

This paper proposes the application of a conjunction model (neuro‐wavelet) for forecasting monthly lake levels. The neuro‐wavelet (NW) conjunction model is improved combining two methods, discrete wavelet transform and artificial neural networks. The application of the methodology is presented for the Lake Van, which is the biggest lake in Turkey, and Lake Egirdir. The accuracy of the NW model is investigated for 1‐ and 6‐month‐ahead lake level forecasting. The root mean square errors, mean absolute relative errors and determination coefficient statistics are used for evaluating the accuracy of NW models. The results of the proposed models are compared with those of the neural networks. In the 1‐month‐ahead lake level forecasting, the NW conjunction model reduced the root mean square errors and mean absolute relative errors by 87–34% and 86–31% for the Van and Egirdir lakes, respectively. In the 6‐month‐ahead lake level forecasting, the NW conjunction model reduced the root mean square errors and mean absolute relative errors by 34–48% and 30‐46% for the Van and Egirdir lakes, respectively. The comparison results indicate that the suggested model could significantly increase the short‐ and long‐term forecast accuracy. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

环境中二噁英的浓度水平及其控制技术

根据近年来二噁英的污染现状,对环境中二噁英的污染浓度水平、污染来源及途径进行了探讨,结果表明:近10年来,二噁英污染浓度水平仍高于检出标准。造纸制浆、漂白继垃圾焚烧后成为主要污染源。在人体危害方面,深入到二噁英对人体基因和染色体有诱导致变作用。根据二噁英的来源和形成机理,按前期预处理、过程控制和后期处理三个阶段,论述了二噁英的污染控制技术,同时提出了对二噁英污染控制措施。     

Relative sea‐level changes,glacial isostatic modelling and ice‐sheet reconstructions from the British Isles since the Last Glacial Maximum

While contributing <1 m equivalent eustatic sea‐level rise the British Isles ice sheet produced glacio‐isostatic rebound in northern Britain of similar magnitude to eustatic sea‐level change, or global meltwater influx, over the last 18 000 years. The resulting spatially variable relative sea‐level changes combine with observations from far‐field locations to produce a rigorous test for quantitative models of glacial isostatic adjustment, local ice‐sheet history and global meltwater influx. After a review of the attributes of relative sea‐level observations significant for constraining large‐scale models of the isostatic adjustment process we summarise long records of relative sea‐level change from the British Isles and far‐field locations. We give an overview of different global theoretical models of the isostatic adjustment process before presenting intercomparisons of observed and predicted relative sea levels at sites in the British Isles and far‐field for a range of Earth and ice model parameters in order to demonstrate model sensitivity and the resolving power available from using evidence from the British Isles. For the first time we show a good degree of fit between relative sea‐level observations and predictions that are based upon global Earth and ice model parameters, independently derived from analysis of far‐field data, with a terrain‐corrected model of the British Isles ice sheet that includes extensive glaciation of the North Sea and western continental shelf, that does not assume isostatic equilibrium at the Last Glacial Maximum and keeps to trimline constraints of ice surface elevation. We do not attempt to identify a unique solution for the model lithosphere thickness parameter or the local‐scale detail of the ice model in order to provide a fit for all sites, but argue that the next stage should be to incorporate an ice‐sheet model that is based on quantitative, glaciological model simulations. We hope that this paper will stimulate this debate and help to integrate research in glacial geomorphology, glaciology, sea‐level change, Earth rheology and quantitative modelling. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

地球运动对海平面变化的控制——从地质系统论的观点分析海平面变化之主因

从地球运动的客观规律来看,地球气候发展的趋向是向冷的方向发展,这与大气由于CO_2的增加而引起的增温相矛盾。两者如起同等作用,则意味着海平面不会发生太大的变化。但是由于活动构造影响,使海岸带上升或下降,可使局部地方海平面有较大幅度的变化。因此,研究“地动”比研究“水动”似有更重要的意义。     

THE HYDROLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND WATER BUDGET OF QINGHAI LAKE DRAINAGE BASIN

The rapid shrinkage of the surface area reflects the long-term deficit water budget of Qinghai Lake. Study of the yearly hydrology and meteorology in the lake catchment basin and the hydrologic factors as well as water budget led to the conclusion that evaporation exceeding the water input resulted in the drop of lake level, thai the obvious decrease of runoff to the lake and precipitation on the catchment accelerated the falling of lake level before 1987. and that increase of about 6.7% in rainfall on the whole basin will balance the lake's water budget.     

Palaeoecological evidence of changes in vegetation and climate during the Holocene in the pre‐Polar Urals,northeast European Russia

This study investigated Holocene tree‐line history and climatic change in the pre‐Polar Urals, northeast European Russia. A sediment core from Mezhgornoe Lake situated at the present‐day alpine tree‐line was studied for pollen, plant macrofossils, Cladocera and diatoms. A peat section from Vangyr Mire in the nearby mixed mountain taiga zone was analysed for pollen. The results suggest that the study area experienced a climatic optimum in the early Holocene and that summer temperatures were at least 2°C warmer than today. Tree birch immigrated to the Mezhgornoe Lake area at the onset of the Holocene. Mixed spruce forests followed at ca. 9500–9000 ¹⁴C yr BP. Climate was moist and the water level of Mezhgornoe Lake rose rapidly. The hypsithermal phase lasted until ca. 5500–4500 ¹⁴C yr BP, after which the mixed forest withdrew from the Mezhgornoe catchment as a result of the climate cooling. The gradual altitudinal downward shift of vegetation zones resulted in the present situation, with larch forming the tree‐line. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

REVIEWS OF GEOGRAPHIC SOFTWARE

Geographic Software Reviewed in this article: THE DIFFUSION GAME . Christopher J. Lovelock and Charles B. Weinberg . MAPIT . Raymond J. Kalush , Jr . SIMODEL . Peter A. Williams and A. Stewart Fotheringham . WEATHER FRONTS . P. C. Moyer . WORLD DYNAMICS . Mark Lewis Baldwin     

Seismic stratigraphy, buried beach ridges and contourite drifts: the Late Quaternary history of the closed Lago Cardiel basin, Argentina (49°S)

The results of a seismic stratigraphic analysis of a closed lake basin, Lago Cardiel, in southernmost South America are reported. Very few high-resolution, continental records spanning the Late Quaternary have been obtained from this region. Seismic sequence stratigraphic analysis allows a reconstruction of lake level variations. Two major hiatuses of unknown age occurred during the early evolution of the basin with the deposition of an alluvial fan in a restricted area in the intervening time period. Following the development of a relatively shallow lake during the late Pleistocene and a short desiccation pulse around 11 220 ¹⁴C yr BP, a transgression of over 135 m occurred at the beginning of the Holocene. The transgression was associated with the formation of beach ridges preserved in the lake stratigraphy on the floor of the modern Lago Cardiel at four different elevations. The preservation of largely unreworked beach ridges indicates a stepwise rise in the lake level. There is no seismic evidence of a major lowering of the lake below modern level during the entire Holocene. Deposition since the mid-Holocene is marked by strong lateral differences in sediment accumulation with a depocentre slightly to the north of the basin midpoint and a pronounced mounded distribution. Seismic reflection geometries, as well as sedimentological characteristics indicate a lacustrine contourite drift covering an area of 80–100 km². As Lago Cardiel is under the influence of westerly winds, these most likely drove lake circulation. The identification of drowned beach ridges and of contourite drifts illustrates that high-resolution seismic stratigraphy is not only a powerful tool in reconstructing past lake level elevations for closed lake basins, but it can also provide information about the rate of lake level changes and the presence and strength of lake currents.     

Relationships between Holocene sea-level variations,trophic development,and climatic change in Negra Lagoon,Southern Uruguay

Paleolimnological data are presented on trophic development, climatic change and sea level variations in Negra Lagoon, a 142 km² coastal lagoon in southern Uruguay. Using a sediment core that extended to the early Holocene, analyses of organic matter, carbonate, diatoms and opal phytoliths allowed us to track changes in trophic state and paleosalinity levels, which were closely related to Holocene sea level variation, temperature and humidity. Diatom Association Zones (DAZ) corresponding to transgressive events were dominated by marine/brackish taxa and relatively low organic matter values, while those DAZ corresponding to regressive events showed increases in brackish/freshwater diatoms and organic matter. Opal Phytoliths Association Zones (OPAZ) also were identified, temperature and humidity indices were calculated, and climatic trends were inferred. During the middle Holocene (i.e., ~5000–4000 yr BP), cool–dry climatic conditions were established. After ~4000 yr BP, a transition from cool to warm–humid conditions was observed, but fully warm humid conditions established only after ~1700 yr BP. Such climatic amelioration led to increases in trophic state.