Confidence and Trust in Public Institution Natural Hazards Management: Case Studies in Urban and Rural China

This research aims to investigate the extent to which urban and rural residents trust grassroots-level institutions and how this might affect community resilience to environmental change in China. It focuses on the commitments of institutional actors and their capacities to manage natural hazards and coordinate the community's response. Semistructured interviews were conducted with megacity (Tianjin) and remote village (Wolong) residents in China. We found that public confidence in grassroots-level institutions is limited due to inherent constraints on resources and power. Residents of Wolong tend to recognize the commitment and role of those institutions in connecting individuals with one another, whereas their urban counterparts in Tianjin remain skeptical. Issues of solidarity might account for this difference. These findings will have implications for state–society cooperation and disaster risk comanagement in both urban and rural China.     

Simulation of summer storms of differing recurrence intervals in a semiarid environment using a kinematic routing scheme

A kinematic flood routing procedure has been devised for a small dendritic headwater gully network on the Western slope of Colorado. the program is spatially-distributed, incorporating lateral inflows from 103 field sites on the network for which channel geometry variables are known. This model, in which a lateral inflow algorithm for the sideslopes between each channel site is convoluted into a Freeze-type (1978) numerical scheme, is fully developed in this paper. Although the field basis of the lateral inflow algorithm has been tested elsewhere (Faulkner, 1990), sensitivity tests were needed for the roughness and hillslope velocity estimates used in the routing procedure. After these successful tests, a suitably precalibrated run of the model was compared with a field-monitored runoff event on the watershed, and results again were encouraging. However, peak attentuation downstream was more pronounced in reality than on the simulation, so the model was also modified by inclusion of allowances for transmission loss. the tendency that the model had displayed for peak size attenuation downstream was considerably enhanced. Using the model, the geomorphic role of the flashfloods which affect the watershed in the summer months is briefly considered by applying the model to existing records of local summer storm rainfall events as a basis for event simulation. These simulations show that downstream attenuation of the flood wave on concave networks in steep semiarid terrain was likely to be a common occurrence, possibly resulting in down-net deposition and differences in geomorphic behaviour between upstream and downstream sites. the discussion is finally broadened to consider the relative importance of ‘common’ as compared to ‘freak’ watershed events in maintaining these differences.     

On comparative probabilities for normal confidence intervals by pearson's Types III and VII, and the Edgeworth series models for biotite data

Biotite crystals were counted in standard thin sections which originated from the diamond drill core of the mafic norite formation at Strathcona mine, Sudbury Nickel Irruptive. Pearson's method of moments is suitable to fit Types III and VII to the biotite data and its log ₁₀ transformation values, as the number of samples (thin sections)is large (351).Based on the two models and the Edgeworth series (utilizing the log ₁₀ data)probability values p,that biotite occurrences lie in the interval mean ± Z standard deviations is derived. Results are compared with the usual normal probability values p_Z corresponding to Zand it is shown that the Edgeworth series generated the largest pvalues for intervals when p_Z values are large; for intermediate or lower p_Z s. Types VII and III models produced larger ps, relative to the Normal and the Edgeworth series.     

中国主要地震活动区的地震间隙分布

结合地震间隙和强度变化分析了本世纪全国及国内主要地震活动区中强以 上地震活动特征,间隙大多在５．５ａ内,一半以上在２．５ａ内,最大间隙近１８ａ.５０年代 以后全国７．５级以上和７．０级以上、青藏块体７．０级以上地震活动及近２０ａ来台湾 ７．０级以上、华北和四川６．０级以上地震活动明显减弱,２０－３０年代青藏块体北部大 震的活动影响一直持续到７０年代,５．０－６．５级地震活动自８０年代明显增强,云南 ７０年代后形成的地震活动高潮实际上从６０年代就开始增强,华北和台湾地区表现 了强震前活动增强而甘宁青地区表现了强震后活动衰减的典型过程,制约我国地震 活动的大三角应力场、东部应力场和全球应力场具有长期稳定的２０ａ周期性,后面的 应力场依次滞后于前一个应力场约１／４个周期,前两者起主导作用,青藏块体东北缘 的地震活动除受东部应力场的影响外,还与青藏块体地壳物质东流的重要作用有关, 今后几年要特别注意四川和甘宁青６．０级以上、甘肃地区５．０级以上及新疆７．０级 以上地震。     

SAR立体影像匹配的视差图融合方法

提出了一种基于视差图融合的匹配方法。首先,基于归一化互相关系数(normalized cross correlation,NCC),利用多个不同尺寸的匹配窗口分别进行匹配,获取相应的视差图;然后,提出了一种左右一致性(left right consistency,LRC)和信噪比(signal to noise ratio,SNR)相结合的置信测度,用来评价视差图中每个视差的置信水平;在此基础上,提出了一种视差图融合策略,该策略对上述多个匹配窗口获取的视差图进行加权融合,融合时既考虑了视差本身的置信水平,也兼顾了其邻域视差的影响。采用TanDEM-X的聚束立体影像进行试验,结果表明,本文方法能有效减少DEM粗差点,DEM高程精度由11.28 m提高到8.41 m。     

LEO卫星轨道预报精度分析

利用动力学拟合法,以HY-2A卫星为例分析不同拟合区间对预报不同弧长的轨道精度的影响。基于CNES提供的事后精密星历和采用非差简化动力学方法获得的厘米级快速轨道两种产品,进行卫星轨道预报。结果表明:采用24 h和12 h拟合区间分别预报12 h轨道时,其3DRMS优于6 dm;当预报24 h轨道时,3DRMS优于1 m。     

管道内部缺陷定位的一致性检验改进算法

针对管道内部缺陷定位中,里程轮累积误差较大的问题,提出了一种改进的一致性检验算法。在原有一致性检验的基础上,新定义了一种置信距离测度,消除了不同测量精度里程轮之间存在两种置信距离的情况,再利用阈值分辨出有效数据和较大误差定位数据,消除较大误差对定位结果的干扰。综合运用一致性检验和极大似然估计,进行管道内部缺陷检测定位分析,通过试验对比分析可知,新的一致性检验算法具有良好的抗干扰性,其平均相对定位误差为0.212%,有效减少了里程轮定位的累积误差,实现了管道内部缺陷检测的高精度定位,满足管道内检测的实际工程需求。     

完全规格化缔合勒让德函数及其导数的递推算法与适用范围比较

完全规格化缔合勒让德函数及其导数常用标准向前列递推算法和标准向前行递推算法进行计算。基于第一、第二相对数值精度标准对两种算法的适用范围进行分析比较,计算结果表明,标准向前列递推算法的适用范围大于标准向前行递推算法,说明前者优于后者;结果同时还表明,完全规格化缔合勒让德函数与其导数同一种算法的适用范围也相同,并指出了二者适用范围相同的原因。     

非等间隔灰色模型在桥梁墩台沉降预测中的应用

灰色系统理论具有对样本数量需求少、预测精度好的特点,被广泛地应用于隧道桥梁、公路建设中的数据建模分析,但该数学模型严格要求样本序列等间隔性,因而限制了其适用区间。本文以桥梁墩台沉降数据为例,采用时间加权因子对传统灰色模型方式进行改进,并对其预测效果进行精度检验,为相关非等间隔工程数据建模提供一定的理论参考。     

山西断陷带太原-临汾部分的强地震平均复发间隔与未来危险段落研究

1303年山西洪洞M8大地震距今已700年. 为了分析长期地震危险性，本文将山西断陷带太原——临汾部分划分为5个震源段，根据历史地震和GPS观测资料，估算出各段的平均地震矩率与强地震平均复发间隔，进而根据最近30多年的台网地震资料计算获得的b值图象，分析不同段落现今应力积累的相对水平. 主要结果表明:临汾盆地段的平均地震矩率为2.211016~3.031016Nm/a, M7.5地震的平均复发间隔估值为1 560~2 140 a. 灵石——洪洞段M8地震的平均复发间隔估值在4300~5100 a之间, 相当于平均矩率为2.581016~3.101016Nm/a. b值图象显示灵石——洪洞段与临汾盆地段现今处于低或较低的应力水平，可能反映自1303年M8和1695年M7.5大地震破裂后，这两段的断面强度至今仍未恢复. 候马段和介休——汾阳段具有相对较高的应力水平，并结合平均复发间隔估值，判定这两个段落可能是未来强震的潜在危险段.