北海市沿岸风暴潮特征研究

根据1965—2009年间影响北海市沿岸的热带气旋资料和风暴增水资料,进行统计分析北海市沿岸的风暴潮特征。结果表明:北海市沿岸平均每年发生风暴增水2—3次,其中较大以上强度的风暴增水每年0.87次,严重以上强度的风暴增水每3年有一次;北海市沿岸每年4—11月均有可能发生风暴增水,且集中在7—10月,尤以9月最多。影响北海市沿岸的热带气旋主要以西北行路径为主,且多是穿过雷州半岛或海南岛后在越南沿海登陆,此种情况下,风暴增水曲线表现为周期性波动。另外,本文还采用Pearson-Ⅲ分布和Gumbel分布来估算风暴增水频度,得出北海市沿岸不同重现期的高潮位值。     

中国大陆若干地震构造带的地震准周期丛集复发行为

以青藏高原东南缘和东北缘若干地震构造带的历史地震活动资料为基本数据，通过地震复发间隔的计算，分类和统计检验等，研究了大陆板内地震的复发行为。认为：大陆板内地震既不是简单地准周期重复发生，也不是简单地丛集复发，而可能是一种准周期的丛集复发行为，即地震丛是准周期重复发生的，而在某一地震丛内，地震又是丛集复发的。存在两类地震复发间隔，即地震丛复发间隔和地震丛内的地震复发间隔，它们分别满足对数正态分布和指数分布。在进行大陆板内活动断裂地震危险性定量计算和评估时，不能简单地套用N．B．实进模型中给出的地震复发间隔概率密度函数或累积分布函数，而应该根据当前地震的活动水平，判断当前是属于丛内的活跃期还是丛间的平静期，据此分别选用地震丛内地震复发间隔分布函数或者地震丛复发问题隔分布函数，这样将大大提高活动断裂地震危险性计算和定量评估的水平。最后，简要探讨了大陆板内地震准周期丛集复发行为的可能物理机制。     

基于混沌理论的时间序列区间预测

运用非参数统计的方法，作出混沌时间序列在特定概率限的区间预测，弥补了传统点预测的不足，使预测的适用性得以提高。并通过数据实证验证了该理论方法。     

The value of high-resolution nutrient monitoring: A case study of the River Frome, Dorset, UK

The River Frome was sampled at sub-daily sampling interval, with additional storm sampling, through an annual cycle. Samples were analysed for total phosphorus (TP), soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP), total oxidisable nitrogen (TON) and dissolved reactive silicon (Si). The resulting data set was artificially decimated to mimic sampling frequencies from 12 h to monthly time interval. Monthly sampling interval resulted in significant errors in the estimated annual TP and SRP load of up to 35% and 28% respectively, and the resulting data sets were insufficient to observe peaks in P concentration in response to storm events. Weekly sampling reduced the maximum percentage errors in annual load estimate to 15.4% and 6.5%. TON and silicon concentrations were less variable with changing river flow, and monthly sampling was sufficient to predict annual load estimates to within 10%. However, to investigate within-river nutrient dynamics and behaviour, it is suggested that a weekly sampling interval would be the minimum frequency required for TON and Si studies, and daily sampling would be a minimum requirement to adequately investigate phosphorus dynamics. The loss in nutrient-concentration signal due to reduced sampling interval is presented. Hysteresis in the nutrient concentration/flow relationships for all 32 storm events during the study period were modelled and seasonal patterns discussed to infer nutrient sources and behaviour. The high-resolution monitoring in this study identified, for the first time, major peaks in phosphorus concentration in winter that coincide with sudden falls in air temperature, and was associated with biofilm breakdown. This study has shown that to understand complex catchment nutrient processes, accurately quantify nutrient exports from catchments, and observe changes in water quality as a result of nutrient mitigation efforts over time, it is vital that the newly emerging field-based automated sampler/analyzer technologies begin to be deployed, to allow for routine high-resolution monitoring of our rivers in the future.     

区间值直观模糊集的直积与相关性

在区间值直观模糊集上定义新的算子,给出这些关系与算子之间的一些重要性质,并讨论了区间值直观模糊集的相关性问题.     

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输沙势计算中的“时距”问题

风力作用是干旱区风蚀过程和风沙地貌形成发展过程的动力基础,我们在探讨区域的风力作用时,通常是利用风速资料。风速是评价区域风沙活动的基础,但不同方法采集的风速资料对评价结果的影响并不一样。利用野外实测的风速资料进行不同时距处理,旨在说明时距在评价区域风沙作用的影响。结果表明,利用数据中值计算的结果要比平均值大11.31%,这说明以往研究中对输沙势的评价有偏大的现象。但是,由于以往所用数据的时距比较长,又造成计算的输沙势减小的趋势,随着时距增加,数据最大值/峰值降低,数据偏离中值的程度越明显,不论是利用中值还是平均值来计算输沙势,随着时距的增加,计算的DP值逐渐越小。对于用风速平均值计算的DP,1 min的计算结果要比5 min的计算大4.94%,比10 min的计算结果大16.90%,比15 min的计算结果大17.78%;而对于用中值计算的DP,1 min的计算结果要比5 min的计算大4.84%,比10 min的计算结果大16.70%,比15 min的计算结果大17.38%。     

Variation in low food access areas due to data source inaccuracies

Several spatial measures of community food access identifying so called “food deserts” have been developed based on geospatial information and commercially-available, secondary data listings of food retail outlets. It is not known how data inaccuracies influence the designation of Census tracts as areas of low access. This study replicated the U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service (USDA ERS) food desert measure and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) non-healthier food retail tract measure in two secondary data sources (InfoUSA and Dun & Bradstreet) and reference data from an eight-county field census covering 169 Census tracts in South Carolina. For the USDA ERS food deserts measure accuracy statistics for secondary data sources were 94% concordance, 50–65% sensitivity, and 60–64% positive predictive value (PPV). Based on the CDC non-healthier food retail tracts both secondary data demonstrated 88–91% concordance, 80–86% sensitivity and 78–82% PPV. While inaccuracies in secondary data sources used to identify low food access areas may be acceptable for large-scale surveillance, verification with field work is advisable for local community efforts aimed at identifying and improving food access.     

Seismic Integrated Interpretation and Prediction on Channel Sandbody of Deep Layer at West Slope in Qikou Sag

1IntroductionIn modern oil and gas exploration, utilizing vari-eties of seismic information to comprehensively pre-dict oil and gas reservoir is always an important subject for geologists. Especially in recent years, with the constant development and innovation of seismic exploration technology, it has been one of important means of raising exploration efficiency to use seismic information relating to stratigraphic structure, lithological trap or reservoir to seek for isolated sandbody, channe…     

Seismic Integrated Interpretation and Prediction on Channel Sandbody of Deep Layer at West Slope in Qikou Sag

According to the seismic and geological differences among every oil measures in mid-deep layers at west slope in Qikou Sag, varieties of new techniques on geophysics and geochemistry were introduced, such as seismic process of target and CWS, neural network seismic microfacies cluster analysis, 3D interval velocity analysis. Taking advantage of the series of new techniques aims at predicting synthetically and quantitatively the deep gravity flow channel sandbody. Furthermore, considering the structural setting data, potential structural-lithologic traps were specified. As a result, the geological and drilling effect is obviously promoted.