中强地震平静是汶川8.0级地震前最显著的地震活动异常

本文对四川地区1923年以来5.0级以上地震资料进行了分析研究。 结果表明, 研究区中强地震经历了4个较为完整的周期活动, 中强地震具有16年的准周期活动特征, 平静期持续5年左右, 从2008年汶川8.0级地震开始, 研究区将进入第5个活动周期, 其可能的持续时间为2024年前后。 2008年汶川8.0级地震前, 5.0～5.9级、 6.0～6.9级、 7.0～8.0级三个档次的地震事件的平静间隔均达到统计时段的历史之最, 三个档次地震的平静均被汶川8.0级地震直接打破, 中强地震超长平静是汶川8.0级地震前最为显著的异常现象。     

2001年永胜6 级地震的地表破裂与程海断裂

综合研究结果表明程海断裂晚更新世晚期以来大地震活动的时间间隔在1500a以上,因此未来一定时间段内,程海断裂还主要以6级左右的中强震为主。     

Paleoearthquake rupture behavior and recurrence of great earthquakes along the Haiyuan fault,northwestern China

Paleoseismological studies have shown that indi-vidual past large-magnitude earthquakes can be recog-nized in the geological record and the timing betweenevents can be measured through Quaternary datingtechniques[1—6]. Thus, through paleoseismological st-udies, it is possible to determine age of each prehis-toric event so that recurrence intervals of large earth-quakes may be evaluated which provides a means toexpand the limited view of earthquakes offered by thehistorical and instrumental re…     

惠州断层及其邻区地震危险性评价

惠州断层长约20 km,宽约5 km,产状135°—150°/NE∠65°—75°,在断层露头处可见复合断层角砾岩,这反映出该断层曾发生过多次运动.为研究该断层最新活动时代及地震危险性,得到的现今惠州断层垂直形变图显示,该区明显受区域活动构造所控制,垂直形变幅度相对较小,无明显的高速度梯度带;地壳水平运动状态测点的运动...     

RUPTURE CHARACTERISTICS OF LATE QUATERNARY STRONG EARTHQUAKES ON THE WESTERN BRANCH OF THE XIAOJIANG FAULT ZONE

The Xiaojiang fault zone is located in the southeastern margin of the Tibetan plateau, the boundary faults of Sichuan-Yunnan block and South China block. The largest historical earthquake in Yunnan Province, with magnitude 8 occurred on the western branch of the Xiaojiang Fault in Songming County, 1833. Research on the Late Quaternary surface deformation and strong earthquake rupture behavior on the Xiaojiang Fault is crucial to understand the future seismic risk of the fault zone and the Sichuan-Yunnan region, even crucial for the study of tectonic evolution of the southeastern margin of Tibetan plateau. We have some new understanding through several large trenches excavated on the western branch of the Xiaojiang fault zone. We excavated a large trench at Caohaizi and identified six paleoseismic events, named U through Z from the oldest to the youngest. Ages of these six events are constrained at 40000-36300BC, 35400-24800BC, 9500BC-500AD, 390-720AD, 1120-1620AD and 1750AD-present. The Ganhaizi trench revealed three paleoearthquakes, named GHZ-E1 to GHZ-E3 from the oldest to the youngest. Ages of the three events are constrained at 3300BC-400AD, 770-1120AD, 1460AD-present. The Dafendi trench revealed three paleoearthquakes, named E1 to E3 from the oldest to the youngest, and their ages are constrained at 22300-19600BC, 18820-18400BC, and 18250-present. Caohaizi and Ganhaizi trenches are excavated on the western branch of the Xiaojiang Fault, the distance between them is 400m. We constrained four late Holocene paleoearthquakes with progressive constraining method, which are respectively at 500-720AD, 770-1120AD, AD 1460-1620 and 1833AD, with an average recurrence interval of 370~440a. Large earthquake recurrence in the late Holocene is less than the recurrence interval of~900a as proposed in the previous studies. Thus, the seismic hazard on the Xiaojiang Fault should be reevaluated. We excavated a large trench at Dafendi, about 30km away south of Caohaizi trench. Combining with previous paleoseismological research, it is found that the western branch of Xiaojiang Fault was likely to be dominated by segmented rupturing in the period from late of Late Pleistocene to early and middle Holocene, while it was characterized by large earthquakes clustering and whole segment rupturing since late Holocene.     

ANALYSIS OF THE CONFIDENCE INTERVAL OF THE COMPOSITE FAULT PLANE SOLUTION OBTAINED FROM THE GRID SEARCH METHOD: AN EXAMPLE OF SOUTHERN JIANGXI PROVINCE

In order to quantitatively analyze the reliability of the composite fault plane solution of small earthquakes, the Bootstrap sampling technique is introduced into the grid search method, and the ideas and methods for calculating the confidence interval from the grid search method are proposed initially. There are two sample sets that can represent the characteristics of the composite fault plane solution. One sample set is the optional solutions obtained by the grid search method and the other is obtained by the Bootstrap sampling technique. Then, we calculate the confidence intervals of the two sample sets (P, B and T axis). The research results of tectonic stress field in southern Jiangxi Province are relatively few. In view of such situation, we use the focal mechanism solutions of small earthquakes to calculate and analyze the composite fault plane solution and the confidence interval. This study shows that the confidence interval of the principal stress axis can be obtained well by both of the sample methods. The reliability of the results and the confidence range of the principal stress axis can be better represented by the confidence intervals. The middle principal stress in southern Jiangxi Province is nearly vertical, and the maximum and minimum principal stresses are nearly horizontal. The direction of maximum principal stress is NWW-SEE and that of the minimum principal stress is NNE-SSW. And, the area is in a strike-slip stress regime. The results are consistent with previous studies, and the stress directions obtained by previous researchers are within the confidence interval calculated by this paper.     

Recurrence pattern of Holocene earthquakes along the Dead Sea transform revealed by varve-counting and radiocarbon dating of lacustrine sediments

A high-resolution Holocene seismic history of the Dead Sea Transform (DST) is established from laminated sedimentary cores recovered at the shores of the Dead Sea. Radiocarbon dating and annual laminae counting yield excellent agreement between disturbed sedimentary structures (identified as seismites) and the historical earthquake record: All recent and historical strong events of the area were identified, including the major earthquakes of A.D. 1927, 1837, 1212, 1033, 749, and 31 B.C. The total of 53 seismites recognized along the entire Holocene profile indicate varying recurrence intervals of seismic activity between a few and 1000 years, with a conspicuous minimum rate at 2100-31 B.C. and a noticeable maximum during the past six to eight centuries. Most of the epicenters of the correlated earthquakes are situated very close to the Dead Sea (within 150 km) or up to 400 km north of it along the DST. Between 1000 B.C. and A.D. 1063, and from A.D. 1600 to recent time the epicenters are all located on the northern segment of the DST, whereas prior to 1000 B.C. and between A.D. 1000 and 1600 they appear to scatter along several segments of the DST. We establish how the local intensity exerts a control on the formation of seismites. At historically estimated intensities greater than VII, all well documented earthquakes are correlated, whereas at intensities smaller than VI none are matching.The periods with enhanced earthquake rate along the DST correlate with those along the North Anatolian Fault as opposed to the intervening East Anatolian Fault. This may indicate some elastic coupling on plate-boundary scale that may also underlie escape and extrusion tectonics, typical of continental collision.     

云南地震动反应谱特性V_(max)/a_(max)值的研究

本文通过对发生在云南省的澜沧—耿马等几次地震记录的分析,提出了适合云南实际的地震动反应谱特性Ｖｍａｘ／ａｍａｘ值的ｗｅｉｂｕｌ模型,并求出了平均值和标准差,对于样本不足的给出了ｍ,η的置信区间,可为我国、特别是云南省的工程建设提供基础依据。     

利用区间分析的空间信息智能分发决策

分析了经典多属性决策方法TOPSIS应用于空间信息的决策问题的局限性:缺乏求解空间信息的决策属性的理想解的方法,且难以获取空间信息的决策属性的效用度。针对该问题,引入区间分析的方法,对TOPSIS方法进行了扩展,提出了基于E-TOPSIS方法的分发决策算法。实验结果表明,基于E-TOPSIS方法能很好地进行空间信息智能分发决策。     

非等时距GM(1,1)在变形预报中的应用

本文应用灰色理论建模原理,探讨了非等间距GM(1,1)模型的建模步骤;通过几种不同参数下的建模方式,利用MATLAB编程进行计算比较,着重分析影响非等间距GM(1,1)模型预报精度的因素,并探讨模型的改进方法。结果表明,对于较均匀的非等间距数据,灰色模型具有较高的预报精度。在间距间隔变化较大的情况下,灰色模型进行改进后也能得到比较满意的预报结果。