利用AIRS产品分析中国地区近地面甲烷浓度时空特性

甲烷(CH4)作为仅次于二氧化碳(CO2)的第二大温室气体,不仅在全球和区域尺度光化学反应中起着重要作用,而且在能量收支平衡及气候变化方面有着重要的影响。2013年,Auqa/EOS的大气红外探测仪(AIRS)热红外近地表CH4产品在AIRS Version6.0产品中发布,其结果尚未在中国进行验证,利用热红外传感器分析中国近地表CH4浓度的时空分布还处于初始阶段。本文利用中国青海瓦里关(WLG)、中国台湾鹿林山(LLN)及蒙古乌兰乌勒(UUM)地基观测资料对AIRS V6.0近地面CH4浓度产品进行了验证,误差在2%以内,二者相关系数r分别为0.68、0.5、0.69,变化趋势一致,进而从地域、季节变化和年际变化3个方面探讨了2003年—2013年中国地区近地面CH4浓度的时空分布特征。结果表明:CH4浓度最低值位于西藏地区(1800 ppbv),高值区位于新疆维吾尔自治区北部、内蒙古自治区及黑龙江北部(1920 ppbv);夏季高,冬季低,季节性变化明显,年际变化基本上呈增长趋势。     

Periglacial and Fluvial Factors Controlling the Sedimentation of Pleistocene Breccia in NW Poland

Breccias were investigated on the terrace of the Toruń‐Eberswalde ice‐marginal valley at Rozwarzyn (NW Poland). Breccia layers include soft‐sediment clasts with diameters between 2 and 256 mm and soft‐sediment megaclasts with diameters from 256 mm to 7 m. The shape of the soft‐sediment clasts and megaclasts (derived from frozen sediments) in the breccia is diverse: from angular and irregular in the case of debris‐flow breccias to slightly rounded and tabular in fluvial breccias. These two types of breccias were developed during the Late Weichselian when the periglacial climate favored extensive lateral erosion by currents of frozen braided channels in the ice‐marginal valley. The dual presence of breccias of fluvial and debris‐flow origin in channel deposits is unique for Quaternary sediments. Zones of breccias existed in the channels where scours and obstacle marks related to megaclasts developed. The study of breccias shed new light on the fluvial processes in ice‐marginal valleys during the Pleistocene and can be considered as diagnostic for fluvio‐periglacial conditions.     

(Re-)sources of innovation: Understanding and comparing time-spatial innovation dynamics through the lens of communities of practice

Communities of practice play an important role in innovation processes. It is, however, still unclear what their particular function is. In this article the authors seek first to develop further systematic differentiations between different types of knowing in practice to provide the conceptual ground for studying the influences of knowing in practice on innovation in a comparative way. Therefore, existing inductive approaches are complemented with deductive elements that highlight different impulses of reflexivity (push vs. pull) and different internal logics of reflexivity (rationalist vs. aesthetic). Second, in this article the authors introduce a dynamic approach which focuses on core ideas of innovation processes from a spatial perspective. In such a dynamic view types of knowing in practice have an impact as sources and resources of innovation. As sources of innovation they form a particular locus in which novel ideas emerge and subsequently take particular trajectories. As resources of innovation they intervene at subsequent stages of the process and propel further the translation process of a novel idea becoming eventually a valuable and practicable solution.     

TeV γ-ray fluxes from the long campaigns on Mrk 421 as constraints on the emission of TeV–PeV neutrinos and UHECRs

Long TeV γ-ray campaigns have been carried out to study the spectrum, variability and duty cycle of the BL Lac object Markarian 421. These campaigns have given some evidence of the presence of protons in the jet: (i) Its spectral energy distribution which shows two main peaks; one at low energies (∼1 keV) and the other at high energies (hundreds of GeV), has been described by using synchrotron proton blazar model. (ii) The study of the variability at GeV γ-rays and X-rays has indicated no significant correlation. (iii) TeV γ-ray detections without activity in X-rays, called “orphan flares” have been observed in this object.Recently, The Telescope Array Collaboration reported the arrival of 72 ultra-high-energy cosmic rays with some of them possibly related to the direction of Markarian 421. The IceCube Collaboration reported the detection of 37 extraterrestrial neutrinos in the TeV–PeV energy range collected during three consecutive years. In particular, no neutrino track events were associated with this source. In this paper, we consider the proton–photon interactions to correlate the TeV γ-ray fluxes reported by long campaigns with the neutrino and ultra-high-energy cosmic ray observations around this blazar. Considering the results reported by The IceCube and Telescope Array Collaborations, we found that only from ∼25% to 70% of TeV fluxes described with a power law function with exponential cutoff can come from the proton–photon interactions.     

京津冀及周边地区冬季能见度与PM2.5浓度和环境湿度的多元回归分析

2013年至今,中国冬季与雾霾相伴的低能见度事件频发,京津冀及周边地区尤为严重。PM_2.5浓度与环境湿度是导致低能见度的最关键影响因素。为了深入研究PM_2.5浓度与环境湿度对大气能见度的影响,利用2017年1月京津冀及周边地区MICAPS气象数据与PM_2.5观测数据,运用天气学诊断分析方法讨论了不同相对湿度下PM_2.5浓度、环境湿度对冬季能见度变化的相对贡献,按照地理环境与污染程度差异将京津冀及周边地区划分为北京-天津地区与河北-山东地区,建立了PM_2.5浓度与环境湿度（由露点温度、温度代表）对能见度的多元回归方程,并对2015、2016、2018、2019年冬季能见度进行了回算检验。结果显示:相对湿度低于70%、PM_2.5浓度低于75 μg/m3时,北京-天津地区与河北-山东地区能见度多高于10 km,PM_2.5浓度升高是此时能见度迅速降低的主导因素;相对湿度从70%上升至85%和PM_2.5浓度从75 μg/m3升高200 μg/m3的共同作用导致了能见度降低到10 km至5 km;能见度进一步从5 km下降至2 km则更多依赖于相对湿度进一步从85%升高至95%,PM_2.5浓度与此时能见度相关减弱;能见度降低至2 km甚至更低主要是由于水汽近饱和状态下（相对湿度95%以上）的雾滴消光引起,与PM_2.5浓度的变化关系不大。与不分组直接拟合相比,以相对湿度85%为界线,分别拟合能见度能够很大程度优化多元回归模型,相对湿度高于85%时能见度拟合值的均方根误差从9.2和5.2 km下降至0.5和0.7 km,5 km以下拟合能见度的误差大幅度减小。按相对湿度85%将数据分组所得的拟合方程对2015、2016、2018、2019年1月能见度估算结果较好,观测值与拟合值相关系数均高于0.91,为雾-霾数值预报系统提供了新的能见度参数化算法。      

济南PM2.5质量浓度与气象条件相关性初步研究

通过对济南2013年12月—2018年2月PM2.5质量浓度数据分析得出,PM2.5质量浓度平均和最大值均为冬季最高,春秋季次之,夏季最低;PM2.5质量浓度值1月和12月最高,8月最低;其质量浓度呈明显的逐年递减趋势。在不同风向上PM2.5质量浓度存在显著差异性,在N风向和ESE(盛行)风向上均出现了质量浓度较大值,一方面与污染物的异地输送有关,另一方面与济南的特殊地形有关。研究表明,无论污染源在山脉的背风侧还是迎风侧,都很容易导致高浓度污染;尤其在冬季,山脉地形还会加重逆温影响,使污染程度加重。通过相关性研究发现,冬季、春季和秋季,PM2.5质量浓度与相对湿度和平均总云量均呈正相关,与日照时数及其距平呈负相关;冬季,PM2.5质量浓度与平均气温及其距平以及最高、最低气温均呈正相关,与平均、最高、最低气压均呈负相关;春季和秋季,PM2.5质量浓度与气温距平值呈正相关;夏季和秋季,PM2.5质量浓度与日降水量呈负相关,而且随着雨强的增大,对PM2.5的洗消作用越显著。上述变量间相关性均通过了P≤0.01显著性检验。     

1961—2017年辽宁省旱涝急转现象时空演变特征

利用1961-2017年辽宁省61个气象站逐月降水数据,以5-8月为研究时段建立旱涝急转指数（drought-flood abrupt alternation index,DFAI）序列,采用线性倾向法、趋势分析、阶段性分析、T检验、ArcGIS空间插值等方法对辽宁省降水集中期的旱涝急转现象进行时空特征分析。结果表明：1961-2017年辽宁省降水集中期DFAI总体以-0.7/（10 a）的速率下降,有13 a出现旱转涝,有19 a出现涝转旱;DFAI强度以0.1/（10 a）的速率略呈上升趋势。近57 a,辽宁省旱转涝多发生在20世纪60年代,涝转旱多发生在20世纪70年代和20世纪初之后,1989年出现了涝转旱的突变,发生频率呈增多趋势,1994年又出现旱转涝的突变,发生频率呈减少趋势。典型旱转涝年（2013年）,DFAI的高值区分布在中、西部地区;典型涝转旱年（2014年）,DFAI绝对值的高值区分布在东北部和中西部地区。DFAI变化率在空间分布上具有明显的中、北部增多,东、西部减少的趋势差异。     

1960—2018年辽河流域日降水集中程度分析

基于1960-2018年的日降水资料,计算辽河流域降水集中指数（CI）,分析日降水集中程度的时空特征。结果表明：降水集中指数CI可以有效描述辽河流域降水集中程度,辽河流域年CI指数平均为0.67,降水集中程度总体呈现出东部和西部低、南部和北部高的鞍型空间分布特征;夏季降水集中程度最高,各站点季平均CI指数为0.65,空间分布与年分布较一致,冬季平均CI指数最低,为0.60,由东南向西北递减;研究时段内年CI指数表现为不显著的减小趋势,其中东部区域减小的趋势最大;各子区域年CI指数平均变化周期为3 a左右,其中1985年以前,变化周期较短,在2 a左右,1985年以后,变化周期超过3 a。     

北京一次持续性雾霾过程的阶段性特征及影响因子分析

利用北京地区高时间分辨率观测资料对2009年11月3—8日一次持续性雾霾天气过程中的气象因素和气溶胶演变特征进行了分析。结果表明,该次雾霾过程具有明显的阶段性特征,前期以霾为主,中期发展为雾霾交替,后期随着相对湿度减小再次转换为霾并最终消散。边界层逆温是低能见度过程形成的必要条件,但并不最终决定雾霾低能见度强度。相对湿度和PM_2.5浓度是决定能见度大小的两个关键影响因子,对能见度的影响体现出阶段性特征。大部分时段PM_2.5浓度是影响能见度的主要因子,当能见度小于1 km时,能见度变化更多受相对湿度影响。不同的情景计算表明,控制PM_2.5浓度对于改善本次过程的能见度有重要作用。