月降水量的神经网络混合预报模型研究

以均生函数表征预报量自身周期变化，结合500hPa月平均高度场和月平均海温场预报因子，采用神经网络方法建立了一种新的短期气候预报模型。分别以广西桂北、桂中和桂南6月降水量作为预报对象进行预报试验，结果表明，这种新的预报方法比均生函数回归预报模型及高度场、海温场预报因子的回归预报模型，具有更好的物理基础和预报能力。     

Comparison of the Langrangian Footprint

We compare flux and concentration footprint estimates of athree-dimensional Lagrangian stochastic dispersion modelapplying backward trajectories with the results of ananalytical footprint model by Kormann and Meixner.The comparison is performed for varying stability regimesof the surface layer as well as for different measurementheights. In general, excellent correspondence is found.     

JX—3解析测图仪上航测高倍放大成图的试验

介绍试用１：３３０００比例尺航测资料，在ＪＸ－３解析测图仪上高倍放大航测１：１０００比例尺地形图的成图方案和应采取的技术措施，运用 解析法模型绝对定向的原理，在全野布点时采用两种方案对照比较，进行理论和试验精度的分析，并给出试验结果。     

Preliminary results on kinematic model of tectonic blocks derived from high precision GPS observations in Southwest China

ＰｒｅｌｉｍｉｎａｒｙｒｅｓｕｌｔｓｏｎｋｉｎｅｍａｔｉｃｍｏｄｅｌｏｆｔｅｃｔｏｎｉｃｂｌｏｃｋｓｄｅｒｉｖｅｄｆｒｏｍｈｉｇｈｐｒｅｃｉｓｉｏｎＧＰＳｏｂｓｅｒｖａｔｉｏｎｓｉｎＳｏｕｔｈｗｅｓｔＣｈｉｎａＬＩＲＥＮＨＵＡＮＧ１）（黄立人）...     

斜坡失稳时间的协同预测模型

斜坡岩体由小变形到大变形乃至滑坡的发生，实质上是由组成斜坡的各子系统协同作用的结果．将协同学引入斜坡的稳定性预测评价中，并提出了一种新的斜坡失稳时间预测模型──协同预测模型．经实例检验，该模型预测精度较高，可用于滑坡的短期或临滑预报．     

综合气体地球化学测量

本文在综合大量资料的基础上,总结了气体地球化学的发展历史,对有关综合气体测量在发展过程中出现的一些术语,阐述了一点浅见,介绍了综合气体测量的采样方法、理论依据,提出了综合气体测量的发展方向。     

泥炭档案气候变化重建的定量模型

泥炭档案气候变化重建的定量模型＊陶发祥洪业汤（中国科学院地球化学研究所，贵阳５５０００２）李汉鼎冷雪天（东北师范大学地理系，长春１３００２４）关键词泥炭档案纤维素稳定同位素气候变化定量模型用泥炭档案定量重建大气ＣＯ２浓度的研究已取得重要进展［１］，但...     

APPROACH TO KARST SOLUTION PROCESS RESPONSES ON CLIMATE

ＩｎｔｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎＳｏｌｕｔｉｏｎａｓａｋａｒｓｔｇｅｏｍｏｒｐｈｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌｐｒｏｃｅｓｓｉｎｌａｎｄｆｏｒｍｄｅｖｅｌｏｐｍｅｎｔｈａｓｌｏｎｇｂｅｅｎｒｅｃｏｇｎｉｚｅｄ.Ｓｉｎｃｅｔｈｅｋａｒｓｔｐｒｏｃｅｓｓｅｓａｒｅａｌｍｏｓｔｅｎｔｉｒｅｌｙｓｏｌｕｔｉｏｎ,ｔｈｏｕｇｈｋａｒｓｔｌａｎｄｆｏｒｍｓａｒｅｎｏｔｏｎｌｙｃａｕｓｅｄｂｙｓｏｌｕｔｉｏｎｂｕｔａｌｓｏｂｙｅｒｏｓｉｏｎ,ｔｈｅｃｉｒｃｕｌａｔｉｏｎａｎｄｃｈｅｍｉｃａｌｃｏｍｐｏｓｉｔｉｏｎｓｏｆｋａｒｓｔｕｎ…     

Application of discovery process models in estimating petroleum resources at the play level in China

Discovery process modeling has gained wide acceptance in the Chinese exploration community. In recent years, a variety of discovery process models have been applied to the prediction of undiscovered petroleum resources at the play level in sedimentary basins in China. However, challenging problems have been encountered, particularly when one method alone has been applied to small plays in nonmarine sedimentary basins or in plays with an unusual order of discovery wells. This paper presents results gotten by using the lognormal discovery process model of the Geological Survey of Canada and the geoanchored method for three petroleum plays in basins with different geologic settings. Although the predicted shapes of the parentsize distributions which use these two models, were not always similar, the expected values of the total resources and the number of fields (pools) to be discovered are comparable. The combined use of two discovery process models in the same play compensates for the weaknesses in one method compared with the other and vice versa. Thus, more reliable estimates are the result.     

隧道开挖模拟计算中的模型识别方法初探

介绍了利用隧道施工的位移量测信息来选择计算模型的原理和方法。应用实例表明，本文所提出的方法有较好的应用前景。