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本文简要给出了滇,川及邻区近年短临地震综合预报的经验性作法和预报指标,从不同角度探索了进入强震短临阶段和强震三要素的经验性综合分析方法。 相似文献
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J. A. M. JANSSEN 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1997,83(3):479-503
There have been several claims, either explicit or by implication, either based on experimental evidence or on theoretical reasoning, that the wind stress is modified by the stage of development of the wind sea. However, the overall evidence is weak, because theories are still incomplete and because it is questionable whether the sea-state effect, which is of the order of 10%, can be separated from experimental noise, which is of the order of 20%. In this paper a rigorous statistical analysis of HEXMAX data is pursued in order to establish the significance of sea-state effects. It appears that the enhanced drag, especially at high winds, which has already been established by previous analyses, cannot be attributed to the effect of young waves. The analysis provides no clues for the actual mechanism, which could be related to breaking or shoaling waves. As the effect of sea-state on wind stress is much smaller than the experimental noise level, it is hard to detect. Nevertheless, HEXMAX seems to contain a wave effect that is at the edge of statistical significance. It is, however, not the wave age itself that influences the drag, but a parameter involving wave height.Because the HEXMAX evidence is only indicative, we conclude that the issue set out in this paper cannot be answered on the basis of the HEXMAX data alone. It is recommended that error analyses are also carried out for other relevant observational data sets and that new measurements with suppressed noise will be taken up. 相似文献
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解译过程的智能化实现,一直是综合信息矿产预测理论与实践中所关注的问题。本文根据综合信息解译的特点,分析了实现智能化过程的基本方法,设计了开发智能解译系统的模型。本模型集图像分析与处理技术和专家系统技术为一体,体现了解译过程的本质特征。文中论述了它们的基本任务和要求。本模型对建造不同研究内容、不同解译任务的智能化系统具有指导作用 相似文献
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古潜山火成岩裂缝带划分与孔隙度计算 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
针对火成岩岩性成分复杂,常规测井难以正确划分岩性,严重阻碍了储层参数的定量计算。本文提出模糊聚类划分岩性,采用综合概率法与混合体积模型计算裂缝孔隙度、有效孔隙度等参数。其测井解释结果与井壁取心和地质描述资料对照,完全吻合。 相似文献
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利用模糊综合评判法对昌宁盆地地下水水质进行了评价,并指出为确保评价的精度,在进行模糊评判中,建议四种A·R复合运算方法联合应用,综合分析 相似文献
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A regional atmospheric climate model is used toexamine the effect of changes in the roughnesslengths of momentum (z0m) and heat (z0h)on the structure of the lower atmosphere and on thesurface energy fluxes over Antarctica. Fourexperiments were carried out in which z0mand/or z0h were altered with respect to acontrol experiment. The changes consisted of (1) alowering of z0m from a field aggregated froma vegetation map with an orographic correction basedon the European Centre for Medium-Range WeatherForecasts z0m field, to a constant value of10-3 m; and (2) a lowering of z0h from a valueequal to z0m to a constant value of 10-3 mor a value dependent on the wind speed via a surfacerenewal model. A reduction of z0m results in theexpected increase in near-surface wind speed. It alsoresults in an increase in the depth of the layer in whichsouth-easterly near-surface winds prevail, and in adecrease in the strength of the large-scale flow overthe continent, in particular in summer. In theescarpment region a decrease of z0m is foundto result in too high wind speeds. Surface temperatureson average decrease while atmospheric temperaturesincrease, resulting in an increase of near-surfacestatic stability. Changes in roughness lengths donot significantly change the temperature profiles.The surface fluxes, on average found reduced, aremodelled best by using the z0h based on thesurface renewal method. 相似文献
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经历剪切变形历史的岩石节理表面粗糙特性分析 总被引:5,自引:1,他引:5
基于两类岩石节理剪切试验,采用非接触式激光测距仪,实测了剪切前后节理表面粗糙数据,统计分析了岩石节理表面粗糙特性的三维粗糙参数的物理含义,并将这些参数与相应的二维参数进行了充分比较。结果表明,三维参数与二维参数间存在的近似线性关系,而多个三维参数相对比单一的二维参数更全面有效地描述了节理表面粗糙特性。 相似文献
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