贡湖水质富营养化综合评价及初步预测

对１９９６年７月贡湖三次调查资料进行的水质和富营养化现状综合评价显示：贡湖水质以Ⅲ－Ⅳ类为主，局部已出发Ｖ类，凯氏氮，非离子氨和总磷为主要污染物；营养型以中营养和中富营养类型分布面积较广。     

周期浅析

本文分析了滑动平均的数据处理方法对周期分析结果产生的影响。提出了过程变量同号积分的数据处理方法,并对亚洲西风指数序列进行了试验分析。分析结果表明,周期的长短与振幅的大小有密切关系,亚洲逐日西风指数的周期振荡具有明显的季节特征。     

1990年12月14日台湾强震的预报判据

本文运用福建省沿海气象要素的异常变化,作台湾省的中、短期地震预报,取得了成功的效果。采用长乐历年各月14时最低气压的距平值,作台湾省未来4～7个月内出现强震的预报依据,并采用热异常进行短临跟踪。当秋冬季节连续4d 长乐、福州、台北的气温均比广州累计高出10℃时,预报未来1～5d 台湾省出现7级强震。又根据近百年来台湾发生的强震,统计其活动季节,得到近20年来7级地震发生的时间,绝大部分在9～12月。     

Semi-Probabilistic Evaluation of System Redundancy for Existing Offshore Structures

In this paper, a new definition of structure system redundancy is proposed in view of the various measures for structure redundancy. By introducing the terms of structure system failure at the mechanism level and equivalent reliability index, the safety for existing offshore platforms can be evaluated by the semi-probabilistic method presented in this paper. Some numerical examples are given and satisfactory results have been obtained.     

海洋生态环境监测的指标体系研究

本文在总结国内外各种海洋生态监测方法的基础上,构建生物分布指数、生物暴露指数和生物反应指数,并由此确定生态质量总指教。生态质量总指数可以综合反映特定海洋环境的生物群落特征,典型污染物在生物体内的蓄积特征以及生物体对环境污染的生理生化反应特征,因此可以应用于近岸海洋环境质量的生态监测。     

Estimation of Axial Pile Bearing Capacity According to Shear Strength Parameters of Soil

At pesent,it is very popular to estimate pile bearing capacity by use of empirical formula andphysical indexes of soil provided in the design codes for civil construction in China.This paper attempts toapply mechanical indexes of soil and semi-empirical formulas,which are based on soil mechanical theoriesand were summarized and presented by Meyerhof in 1976,to calculate the axial pile bearing capacity.Lo-ading test results of 24 single piles in Tianjin area have been collected and compared with the proposed cal-ulation approach.     

工程风险分析中的风险当量及其评价标准

目前，量化、半量化风险分析是工程风险分析的主流。在对工程进行量化和半量化风险分析时，无论采用什么方法，风险评价指标和评价标准都是关键的重要问题。只有在建立了统一的评价指标和评价标准体系的基础上，对工程进行的风险分析能够得出正确和一致的结论。文章通过对国内外风险分析理论和实践的研究和总结，提出了在工程风险分析中确定风险评价指标和评价标准的原则和方法。     

青岛海陆风三维结构的数值模拟

本文采用 1个陡地形影响修正的三维中尺度流体静力的气象学模式 ,对青岛地区海陆风的日变化规律和三维结构进行了较细致的分析。结果显示 ,青岛有多支海陆风存在 ,且每支海陆风出现的时间、强度和向内陆伸展的距离有很大的不同。这其中沿岸山地的机械和热力作用扮演着重要的角色。在观测站 ,模拟结果和实测资料等方面有较好的一致性。     

Atmospheric forcing of the eastern tropical Pacific: A review

The increase in marine, land surface, atmospheric and satellite data during recent decades has led to an improved understanding of the air–sea interaction processes in the eastern tropical Pacific. This is also thanks to extensive diagnoses from conceptual and coupled ocean–atmosphere numerical models. In this paper, mean fields of atmospheric variables, such as incoming solar radiation, sea level pressure, winds, wind stress curl, precipitation, evaporation, and surface energy fluxes, are derived from global atmospheric data sets in order to examine the dominant features of the low level atmospheric circulations of the region. The seasonal march of the atmospheric circulations is presented to depict the role of radiative forcing on atmospheric perturbations, especially those dominating the atmosphere at low levels.In the tropics, the trade winds constitute an important north–south energy and moisture exchange mechanism (as part of the low level branch of the Hadley circulation), that determines to a large extent the precipitation distribution in the region, i.e., that associated with the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Monsoonal circulations also play an important role in determining the warm season precipitation distribution over the eastern tropical Pacific through a large variety of air–sea–land interaction mechanisms. Westward traveling waves, tropical cyclones, low latitude cold air intrusions, and other synoptic and mesoscale perturbations associated with the ITCZ are also important elements that modulate the annual rainfall cycle. The low-level jets of the Gulf of California, the Intra-Americas Sea (Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea) and Chocó, Colombia are prominent features of the eastern tropical Pacific low-level circulations related to sub-regional and regional scale precipitation patterns. Observations show that the Intra-Americas Low-Level Jet intensity varies with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases, however its origin and role in the westward propagation and development of disturbances that may hit the eastern tropical Pacific, such as easterly waves and tropical cyclones, are still unclear. Changes in the intensity of the trade winds in the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico (associated with eastern tropical Pacific wind jets) exert an important control on precipitation by means of wind–topography interactions. Gaps in the mountains of southern Mexico and Central America allow strong wind jets to pass over the continent imprinting a unique signal in sea surface temperatures and ocean dynamics of the eastern tropical Pacific.The warm pools of the Americas constitute an important source of moisture for the North American Monsoon System. The northeastern tropical Pacific is a region of intense cyclogenetic activity, just west of the coast of Mesoamerica. Over the oceanic regions, large-scale properties of key variables such as precipitation, moisture, surface energy fluxes and wind stress curl are still uncertain, which inhibits a more comprehensive view of the region and stresses the importance of regional field experiments. Progress has been substantial in the understanding of the ocean and atmospheric dynamics of the eastern tropical Pacific, however, recent observational evidence such as that of a shallow meridional circulation cell in that region, in contrast to the classic concept of the Hadley-type deep meridional circulation, suggests that more in situ observations to validate theories are still necessary.This paper is part of a comprehensive review of the oceanography of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.