中国沿海地区近20年台风灾害风险评价

依据自然灾害系统理论,综合考虑致灾因子和承灾体特征,提出台风灾害风险评价方法。在GIS环境下对中国沿海地区台风灾害危险性、脆弱性和风险进行分析评价。评价结果显示:海南省、上海市和广东省、福建省、浙江省的沿海区域台风灾害危险性较高;北京市、天津市、上海市和江苏省、山东省的大部分地区及广东省、福建省、浙江省、河北省的沿海区域承灾体脆弱性较高;海南省、上海市和广东省、福建省、浙江省的沿海区域台风灾害风险较高;而北京市、天津市以及河北省、辽宁省和山东省的大部分区域台风灾害风险较低。     

金沙江水电站工程区典型单体滑坡风险评价探讨

在对金沙江流域内的部分大型水电站工程区内的滑坡分析基础上,以两个滑坡为例,针对水电站工程区讨论了单体滑坡的风险评价方法。选取滑坡稳定性,规模和可能造成的涌浪高度3个指标进行危险性评价;并且定性地将大坝的易损性确定为高、中、低三个等级。在此基础上,对研究区的牛滚函滑坡和东岳庙滑坡进行了危险性分析和易损性评价,得出这两个单体滑坡的风险分析结果：牛滚函滑坡为低度风险,东岳庙滑坡为中度风险。研究成果为水电站工程区滑坡减灾防灾与风险管理提供了科学依据。     

不同权重条件下降雨对边坡稳定性影响的二级模糊综合评判

边坡稳定性影响因素众多,其中一部分具有明显的不确定性,用经典数学理论及力学模型很难描述。采用二级模糊综合评判法,对影响边坡稳定的离散型和连续型因素采用不同方法确定隶属度,并利用二元对比分析法给出各因素权重值;同时考虑降雨对边坡稳定的重要影响,对降雨后各影响因素的权重进行修正,建立边坡稳定的二级模糊综合评判计算模型,评价降雨前后边坡稳定性的变化。研究结果表明：模型所采用的隶属函数,充分考虑了各个因素的不同特点和分布规律;考虑降雨前后权重的变化,能使评判结果更趋合理。以实际工程为例,模糊综合评判结果显示：降雨前边坡处于基本稳定状态,降雨后处于欠稳定状态,与经典极限平衡法计算结果一致。     

碳酸盐风化碳汇与森林碳汇的对比——碳汇研究思路和方法变革的必要性

目前,全球碳循环研究主要集中在海洋碳汇以及陆地土壤和植被碳汇,而对岩石风化碳汇仅考虑地质长时间尺度的硅酸盐风化作用,而认为碳酸盐风化在长时间尺度上对碳汇无贡献。然而,碳酸盐相对于硅酸盐有快得多的溶解速度,且对全球变化(特别是气候和CO2变化)的响应迅速,同时由于生物作用和人为活动的影响,使得碳酸盐风化碳汇的能力需要重新评价。最新的研究发现,由碳酸盐溶解、全球水循环及水生生物光合利用溶解无机碳共同作用,即水-岩-气-生相互作用形成的大气碳汇,远远大于之前只估计了河流输运的无机碳汇,其量级与森林碳汇量相当,因此有必要对传统的碳汇研究思路和方法进行某些变革,这有可能为解决所谓的全球“碳失汇”问题找到一条出路。      

An ‘Effective’ Involvement of Indigenous People in Environmental Impact Assessment: the cultural impact assessment of the Saru River Region,Japan

The Cultural Impact Assessment of the Saru River Region represents the first time that a site investigation was implemented in Japan in order to preserve an ethnic culture in relation to the construction of a dam. One of the project's basic concepts was to get local residents, especially those of Ainu ethnicity, to participate in the investigation. Existing case studies of environmental impact assessment have argued that the assessment has failed to sufficiently involve Indigenous people in its process and has largely failed to incorporate Indigenous knowledge, cultural values, and voices into its processes and outcomes. Also, intangible aspects of Indigenous cultural heritage have not been protected. In the Cultural Impact Assessment of the Saru River Region, the Final Report was released in 2006 and significantly included the 3 year investigation of input by local residents. In this sense, this assessment succeeded in effectively involving Indigenous people in its process and in reflecting their cultural values in its results. The more important issue is, however, how these results were included in the final outcomes. If Indigenous people have no power over final decision making, their involvement is not effective. This paper analyses the significance and unresolved problems involved in this overall assessment process.     

Estimating economic impacts in New Zealand: Technical issues

Abstract: This technical paper describes the techniques used to calculate future economic impacts, using two quite different situations: a technology park in a major urban area and the suspension of fees at a tertiary institution in a provincial town. A number of issues arose which required assumptions to be made. Notable among these were the lack of regionalized input–output tables and estimating the ‘leakage’ to economies outside the specified target area.     

屋面雨水回灌裂隙岩溶水工程风险评价

济南城市雨洪水回灌岩溶含水层是维护自然水循环,增加地下水补给量,维持济南泉群喷涌以及城市防洪的有效途径。但由于裂隙岩溶含水层具有渗透系数大、水流速度快,地下水一旦污染很难短时间恢复等特点,需要对回灌工程开展风险评价。本文以济南大学西校区的屋面雨水深井回灌裂隙岩溶水工程为例,利用澳大利亚MAR指南对工程进行风险评价。主要由初级风险评估、试运行调查、试运行风险评价及风险控制与管理4部分组成。初级风险评估结果显示屋面雨水回灌裂隙岩溶含水层工程的总体难度水平较低,项目可行。试运行调查期间监测的屋面雨水和回灌前后地下水水质可知屋面雨水经初期弃流、沉淀和过滤后,除浊度外基本达到地下水Ⅲ类标准,且处理后达标的雨水可迅速补充地下水。试运行风险评价结果显示屋面雨水中浊度经预处理后仍较高,使其成为该系统的最大风险项和关键控制点,故本项目的风险控制措施为改进预处理设施,降低雨水中的浊度。为保证工程能够高效持续运行,加强后期管理也尤为重要。      

天津市热储规划分区和地热井审批系统研发

为解决天津市地热工作中大量地热地质专业数据处理工作周期长与管理决策快速、科学要求相矛盾的问题,满足地热开发利用科学规划发展的要求,为资源的可持续开发利用提供操作简单、智能的工具和手段;在过去天津地热工作的基础上,提出了"两线一面"三维动态分区方法,利用MapGIS SDK及Visual Basic开发了地热工程热储规划分区及地热井审批查询系统。该系统的开发为规划的制定和落实提供了快速、全面、直观的规划分区,并且具有动态跟踪功能。在规划期间内,每年根据热储动态观测数据,利用该系统制作一套年度规划分区图,供管理部门掌握规划情况和动态审批。     

Framework for the derivation of analytical fragility curves and life cycle cost analysis for non-seismically designed buildings

The quantification of the devastating effects of earthquakes on buildings can be achieved with the use of earthquake risk assessment. The formulation of strategies to minimise this risk is a complex task which relies on data regarding mainly the hazard, vulnerability and remaining life of the building. In this paper, the case study of Limassol municipality is presented. Initially, the building inventory and categorisation is defined followed by the selection of hazard scenarios and the development of analytical vulnerability curves. In the final part, risk assessment is performed leading to the formulation of retrofitting strategies for long term use.