全国地质灾害趋势预测及预测图编制

区域地质灾害预测是地质灾害研究的难题。本文运用基于地理信息系统的风险评价方法对这一问题进行了探讨。将全国剖分为2700个单元,对地质灾害进行现状评价,并与已数字化的地质灾害图件进行单要素叠加,编制了全国地质现状等值线图,在现状评价基础上,对地质灾害进行趋势预测,将降雨条件、区域地震活动、区域地壳稳定程度、区域岩组条件和人类工程活动等作为区域地质灾害演变的因素,运用模糊综合评判模型进行综合评判,编制了1:600万中国地质灾害趋势预测图。     

胶州湾海域营养状况研究

根据2000～2009年胶州湾海水监测资料,选用单项指标分析和富营养化指数法,对胶州湾海域以及主要河口区营养水平进行评价。结果表明,胶州湾水质较差,无机氮严重超标,N/P值为62.7,呈现高N低P状况,整个海域呈中度-重度富营养状态。主要河口海域无机氮(IN)严重超标,富营养化程度高,其中墨水河口为严重富营养,楼山河口为重度富营养。     

北戴河近岸海域表层沉积物重金属分布特征及污染评价

分析了北戴河近岸海域表层沉积物重金属含量和空间分布特征,利用修正综合指数法和潜在生态风险指数法对其污染程度进行了评价。结果表明,该区表层沉积物重金属平均含量较低,高值区主要分布在西南角和东北角河口,低值区主要分布在中部;区内重金属污染程度总体上处于较低至中等等级,污染相对明显的为人造河口、石河口和秦皇岛城区近岸海域。相对而言,Hg是主要的致污元素。     

利用基于环境因子的动态产量模型评估西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼

西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼,Illex argentinus,巴塔哥尼亚南部群体是重要的经济种类。海洋环境因子在柔鱼资源分布中起着重要的作用。本研究利用基于环境因子的动态产量模型评估2000-2010年的滑柔鱼的资源量。假设海洋环境因子（滑柔鱼产卵场最适宜海表温度占比）影响动态产量模型的参数K,DIC值表明在正态分布和均匀分布下均是基于环境因子的评估模型优于基本的动态产量模型。阿根廷滑柔鱼的最大可持续产量（MSY）在351600吨到685 100吨之间,资源生物量在1322400吨到1 803 000吨之间,其捕捞死亡系数均小于F_0.1和F_MSY,资源处在良好状态,没有遭受过度捕捞。本研究为应用环境因子在柔鱼类的资源评估与管理提中供了科学的参考方法。     

基于模糊综合评判理论的过驳系统效率计算方法

如何计算整个系统的运转效率，特别是受不确定因素影响的系统(如过驳系统)，仍然是一个非常重要的研究课题。文章提出基于模糊综合评判方法的效率计算方法，是一种新的尝试，这种方法较好的避免了人的主观随意性，更符合实际情况，同时又可以弥补统计方法的不足。文章对某沿海地区的一过驳系统进行了效率计算，取得比较好的效果。     

用于复合驱防腐垢剂的综合性能评价

适合于复合驱的防腐垢剂BH是一种磷硅酸盐。针对矿场实际,通过室内实验,对含该防腐垢剂的三元复合体系基本性质进行了研究。结果表明,这种磷硅酸盐防腐垢剂具有良好的缓蚀防垢效果,且驱油体系与渤海油田原油仍然可以形成超低界面张力。体系的表观黏度和界面张力的稳定性也有所改善。压力传导和转向调44能力实验结果表明：“聚合物／BH助剂”和“聚合物／表面活性剂／BH助剂”复合体系相比聚合物溶液其传导能力分别下降了14．2％和29．5％,转向调剖能力分别提高了11．8％和14．9％;而“聚合物／ga活性剂／BH助剂”相比“聚合物／表面活性剂／NaOH”体系传导能力相差不大,但转向调剖能力相对提高了10％左右。可见BH防腐垢剂不仅具有良好的缓蚀防垢和降低界面张力效果,而且具有较强的转向调剖能力。     

Risk assessment of TBT in the Japanese short-neck clam (Ruditapes philippinarum) of Tokyo Bay using a chemical fate model

A risk assessment of Tributyltin (TBT) in Tokyo Bay was conducted using the Margin of Exposure (MOE) method at the species level using the Japanese short-neck clam, Ruditapes philippinarum. The assessment endpoint was defined to protect R. philippinarum in Tokyo Bay from TBT (growth effects). A No Observed Effect Concentration (NOEC) for this species with respect to growth reduction induced by TBT was estimated from experimental results published in the scientific literature. Sources of TBT in this study were assumed to be commercial vessels in harbors and navigation routes. Concentrations of TBT in Tokyo Bay were estimated using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model, an ecosystem model and a chemical fate model. MOEs for this species were estimated for the years 1990, 2000, and 2007. Estimated MOEs for R. philippinarum for 1990, 2000, and 2007 were approximately 1–3, 10, and 100, respectively, indicating a declining temporal trend in the probability of adverse growth effects.A simplified software package called RAMTB was developed by incorporating the chemical fate model and the databases of seasonal flow fields and distributions of organic substances (phytoplankton and detritus) in Tokyo Bay, simulated by the hydrodynamic and ecological model, respectively.     

应用模式识别定量划分潜在震源区

本文以陕西关中及部分邻区为例,考虑地质构造、地震活动及地球物地场等因素,采用不同的模式识别方法和多种计算方案,以定量判定潜在震源区。其结果表明,模式识别方法有利于地质、地震活动及地球物理场等多种因素综合应用,并能选择和显示判定潜有震源区的主要特征。不同模式识别方法的比较和多种试验方案的综合,则可提高潜在震源区判定的可靠性和稳定性。     

Swath mapping of the seafloor and its application to deep-bottom fisheries in New Caledonia

A bottom longline fishery operated in the EEZ of New Caledonia from 1988 to 1991. Fishing focused on five seamounts with summits at depths ranging from 500 to 750 m. The target species was alfonsino, Beryx splendens. As the soundings available from marine charts were not detailed enough, the fishing masters had to make their own charts in order to set the gear in the right location. A series of 11 scientific cruises devoted to a research program on alfonsino was launched in late 1991. During the first scientific cruises, several days were spent mapping the seabed to improve the existing knowledge of the topography of three seamounts by coupling the EDO echosounder depth measurements to the GPS positions. As this procedure is slow, it is applicable to limited areas or, if a wider grid is used, to large zones to locate major structures such as ridges and seamounts. The emergence of the multibeam echosounder has greatly improved seabed mapping performance. This tool seems to fit the requirement of exploratory deep-bottom fishing particularly well, as it covers large areas while providing details of the bottom. The EM 12 was used to obtain bathymetry and imagery of the SE portion of the EEZ of New Caledonia, covering an approximate area of 70,000 km² in two weeks. For depths ranging from 500 to 4,500 m, the results were impressive. They confirmed the known major features and provided greater topographical detail, revealing fine unknown structures. They also provided information on the type of substratum, information which might influence the fishing strategy. Finally, they made it possible to obtain an accurate estimate of the exploitable area which in turn led to new stock estimates.     

喀斯特荒漠化是一种地质—生态灾难

ＫＤＮ是一种ＧＥＯＬ－ＥＣＯＬ灾难,是发生潮湿的碳酸盐岩区的土壤侵蚀、土地退化与生态系统凋萎,致使人类很难生活在其中。ＫＤＮ是我国四大ＧＥＯＬ－ＥＣＯＬ灾害中最难整治、最难摆脱贫困的地区。本文按国际公认的原则为准,认定“石山化”≠ＫＤＮ,从地质结构性气候、物候和生态系统多因子厘定了ＫＤＮ术语,认定人为扰动与人口超载是其产生的序参量。其过程最迟也是３００多年前明清朝代屯垦开始,近半个世纪加速衰竭,森