全过程沉降预测的新模型与方法

地面沉降是普通存在的一种环境灾害为此提出了一种新模型,它概括了泊松曲线模型与Verhulst模型,能准确预测全过程沉降量的变化规律。提出了将非线性回归与3次样条插值相结合求解新模型的思路与方法,突破了泊松曲线模型所用三段计算法的局限。实例分析结果表明：所提出的方法能准确地求得非线性模型的解;新模型及方法与Verhulst模型及方法相比,能使模型计算值与实测值之间的残差大幅度减小。新模型为岩土工程设计提供了新的科学依据。     

Impacts of regional warming on long‐term hypolimnetic anoxia and dissolved oxygen concentration in a deep lake

Although few reports have described long‐term continuous anoxia in aquatic systems, Lake Ikeda in Japan experienced such conditions in the hypolimnion from 1990 to 2010. The present study aimed to assess temporal fluctuations in the lake's thermal stability from 1978 to 2011 to understand the influence of regional climate change on hypolimnetic anoxia in this lake. Because complete vertical mixing, which supplies dissolved oxygen (DO) to the hypolimnion, potentially occurs on February, we calculated the Schmidt stability index (S) in February and compared it with hypolimnetic DO dynamics. Vertical water temperature profiles were calculated using a one‐dimensional model, and calculated temperatures and meteorological data were used to analyse annual fluctuations in water temperatures, thermocline depth, meteorological variables and S. We estimated that mean annual air and volume‐weighted water temperatures increased by 0.028 and 0.033 °C year^?1, respectively, from 1978 to 2011. Between 1986 and 1990, S and water temperature increased abruptly, probably due to a large upwards trend in air temperature (+0.239 °C year^?1). We hypothesize that a mixing regime that lacked overturn took effect at this time and that this regime lasted until 2011, when S was particularly small. These results demonstrate that abrupt climate warming in the late 1980s likely triggered the termination of complete mixing and caused the 21‐year period of successive anoxia in Lake Ikeda. We conclude that the lake response to a rapid shift in regional climate conditions was a key factor in changing the hypolimnetic water environment and that thermal stability in winter is a critical environmental factor controlling the mixing regime and anoxic conditions in deep lakes. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

清洁生产和末端治理环境绩效对比分析

以吉林省为例,应用无残差完全分解模型,将工业污染产生量和排放量的变化分解为规模效应、空间结构效应和技术效应,分析清洁生产和末端治理不同产业生态化策略导向下的环境绩效,探索产业生态化发展改进方向.结果表明:清清生产的控污效果在数量上大于末端治理的减排效果,产业生态化发展表现出以预防策略为主的特征.但是,环境目标主要通过清...     

The empty shell of the planetary: re-rooting the urban in the experience of the urbanites

ABSTRACT

This paper offers reflections on a body of work that has been produced under the label of “planetary urbanization”. This term has its roots in speculative work by French writer Henri Lefebvre in the late 1960s and early 1970s and has recently been popularized by a new generation of critical urban theorists. In this commentary, I propose that Lefebvre’s idea of planetary urbanization (and the aligned concepts “complete urbanization” and “urban society”) offer a way to think productively about post-capitalist possibilities. Making reference to early writings by Marx and Engels about communism and the end of human pre-history, I argue that planetary urbanization presents a terrain for liberation from the constraints of capitalist histories. Given that this terrain is currently defined by the domains of neoliberalism and climate change a new politics is necessary to unlock the possibilities of urban society.     

测量上海产业网络的点入度和点出度——超越后工业化社会的迷思

利用上海市2007年144个部门投入产出表,计算基于投入产出完全消耗系数的点入度和点出度,将产业划分为Ⅰ型（高点入度、高点出度）,Ⅱ型（低点入度、高点出度）,Ⅲ型（低点入度、低点出度）,Ⅳ型（高点入度、低点出度）。研究发现：① Ⅰ型、Ⅱ型、Ⅲ型和Ⅳ型制造业点入度均值分别比各类型服务业高0.52、0.45、0.04、0.27,表明制造业相对服务业具有更强的后向拉动效应。② Ⅱ型和Ⅳ型服务业点出度均值分别高于Ⅱ型和Ⅳ型制造业0.29、0.16,而Ⅰ型和Ⅲ型服务业点出度均值分别小于Ⅰ型和Ⅲ型制造业0.32、0.17,表明服务业的前向拉动效应存在着分异。③ Ⅰ型、Ⅳ型制造业及服务业的点出度对GDP均具有正向的相关性,提高对这些产业的使用有利于提升GDP。Ⅱ型服务业的点入度对GDP具有负向的相关性,点入度较低的房地产开发经营业、银行业、证券业GDP分别为该类服务业前3名。Ⅱ型服务业点出度、Ⅲ型制造业和服务业点入度和点出度对GDP的回归系数均未通过显著性检验。尽管制造业GDP占比下降,制造业仍在上海产业网络中发挥着重要的作用。上海应超越后工业化的迷思,降低对房地产业的依赖,加强制造业与服务业的融合发展,特别是加强金融对制造业等实体经济的支持,提升产业网络关联多样性和非关联多样性,促进航空、航天、机器人等新兴产业的发展。     

有限群p-超可解性的一个判别准则

为了得出群的p-超可解性的一些判别准则,引入有限群的z-置换嵌入子群的概念。设z是群G的Sylow子群的完全集,群G的一个子群H称为在G内z-置换嵌入,如果H的每个Sylow子群也是G的某个z-置换子群的Sylow子群,一些已知的结论也得到推广。     

基于城镇化视角的绿洲城市用水变化驱动效应分析

城镇化是驱动区域用水变化的双刃剑,既可以通过刺激生产来促进用水总量增长,也可以通过优化用水结构和提高用水效率来抑制用水总量增长。以黑河流域张掖市为例,通过构建城镇化驱动用水变化的完全分解模型,定量测度了2000-2011年张掖市人口和经济城镇化过程对用水总量和用水效率变化的驱动效应。结果表明：张掖市人口和经济城镇化过程对用水总量均具有明显的减量效应,对用水效率均具有明显的增量效应,而且与人口和经济城镇化速度高度相关。因此建议干旱区绿洲城市在水资源约束下,应将城镇化作为优化人口结构、经济结构和用水结构,提高经济效率以及用水效率,并最终实现水-生态-经济良性循环的抓手。该结论对于科学认识干旱区绿洲城市城镇化与水资源利用的关系具有一定的参考价值。     

模拟应变软化岩石三轴试验过程曲线

在经典弹塑性理论框架下,认为岩石材料在应变软化过程中遵守摩尔-库仑强度准则,塑性变形服从非关联流动法则。对两组岩石在三轴试验中呈现的应变软化行为进行了分析,获取了峰值前后强度参数的大小。采用应变软化模拟方法,将应力-应变曲线峰后应变软化阶段简化为一系列应力跌落和塑性流动的脆塑性过程,在给定的强度参数演化规律基础上,得到了岩石的应力-应变曲线、侧向应变-轴向应变曲线、体应变-轴向应变曲线和塑性体应变-轴向塑性应变曲线。模拟得到的应力-应变曲线与试验结果吻合较好,其他曲线与相关试验测试规律基本一致。研究成果对确定岩石强度参数与认识岩石峰后强度演化规律有一定的指导意义。     

2003年7月西太平洋副热带高压变异及中国南方高温形成机理研究

运用全型垂直涡度倾向方程理论, 研究了空间非绝热加热在垂直方向的变化对2003年7月副高强度和位置变异的影响.结果表明: 副热带地区的非绝热加热对副高的强度和位置的变化有极其重要的影响.与气候平均状况相比较, 2003年7月副高北侧、西侧非绝热加热的垂直变化异常偏强, 而南侧、东侧较常年异常偏弱.这种异常的非绝热加热状况导致我国江南到副热带西太平洋地区呈现带状的异常反气旋性涡度制造, 使得7月副高偏强偏西.     

2009年3月25日黄海M_L 4.0地震震源机制的讨论

应用振幅谱反演方法,对2009年3月25日黄海M_L 4.0地震的震源机制进行求解。在震源位置固定情况下,得到此次地震的地震矩为7.17×10~(14)N·m,矩震级约3.8级,最佳震源机制解为:走向40°,倾角80°,滑动角150°,与震中附近区域的中国断层线走向基本吻合。