Study of statistically correcting model CMAQ-MOS for forecasting regional air quality

Based on analysis of the air pollution observational data at 8 observation sites in Beijing including outer suburbs during the period from September 2004 to March 2005, this paper reveals synchronal and in-phase characteristics in the spatial and temporal variation of air pollutants on a city-proper scale at deferent sites; describes seasonal differences of the pollutant emission influence between the heating and non-heating periods, also significantly local differences of the pollutant emission influence between the urban district and outer suburbs, i.e. the spatial and temporal distribution of air pollutant is closely related with that of the pollutant emission intensity. This study shows that due to complexity of the spatial and temporal distribution of pollution emission sources, the new generation Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model developed by the EPA of USA produced forecasts, as other models did, with a systematic error of significantly lower than observations, albeit the model has better capability than previous models had in predicting the spatial distribution and variation tendency of multi-sort pollutants. The reason might be that the CMAQ adopts average amount of pollutant emission inventory, so that the model is difficult to objectively and finely describe the distribution and variation of pollution emission sources intensity on different spatial and temporal scales in the areas, in which the pollution is to be forecast. In order to correct the systematic prediction error resulting from the average pollutant emission inventory in CMAQ, this study proposes a new way of combining dynamics and statistics and establishes a statistically correcting model CMAQ-MOS for forecasts of regional air quality by utilizing the relationship of CMAQ outputs with corresponding observations, and tests the forecast capability. The investigation of experiments presents that CMAQ-MOS reduces the systematic errors of CMAQ because of the uncertainty of pollution emission inventory and improves the forecast level of air quality. Also this work employed a way of combining point and area forecasting, i.e. taking the products of CMAQ for a center site to forecast air pollution for other sites in vicinity with the scheme of model products "reanalysis" and average over the "area".     

Signatures in flowing fluid electric conductivity logs

Flowing fluid electric conductivity logging provides a means to determine hydrologic properties of fractures, fracture zones, or other permeable layers intersecting a borehole in saturated rock. The method involves analyzing the time-evolution of fluid electric conductivity (FEC) logs obtained while the well is being pumped and yields information on the location, hydraulic transmissivity, and salinity of permeable layers. The original analysis method was restricted to the case in which flows from the permeable layers or fractures were directed into the borehole (inflow). Recently, the method was adapted to permit treatment of both inflow and outflow, including analysis of natural regional flow in the permeable layer. A numerical model simulates flow and transport in the wellbore during flowing FEC logging, and fracture properties are determined by optimizing the match between simulation results and observed FEC logs. This can be a laborious trial-and-error procedure, especially when both inflow and outflow points are present. Improved analyses methods are needed. One possible tactic would be to develop an automated inverse method, but this paper takes a more elementary approach and focuses on identifying the signatures that various inflow and outflow features create in flowing FEC logs. The physical insight obtained provides a basis for more efficient analysis of these logs, both for the present trial and error approach and for a potential future automated inverse approach. Inflow points produce distinctive signatures in the FEC logs themselves, enabling the determination of location, inflow rate, and ion concentration. Identifying outflow locations and flow rates typically requires a more complicated integral method, which is also presented in this paper.     

DEFORESTATION IN NORTHEAST THAILAND, 1975–91: RESULTS OF A GENERAL STATISTICAL MODEL

Using a general statistical model, this study attempts to characterise the trend of deforestation in the northeast region (Isan) of Thailand between 1975 and 1991, a period when the kingdom had sustained high rates of economic growth and steady increases in population. Using data obtained directly from government bodies on the 17 provinces comprising this heavily deforested region, the study examines the correlations between forest area and a set of six variables: population density, agricultural area, real per capita income, accumulated irrigated area, agricultural credit levels, and distance from Bangkok, the national political and economic centre. It also considers the effect of the two logging bans instituted in 1979 and since 1989. The study found a negative correlation between forest area and population density in particular, followed in ranking by agricultural credit, per capita income, the logging bans and distance from Bangkok. Viewed together with more recent data showing that rates of deforestation in the kingdom as a whole have slowed and appear to be stabilising, these results also suggest the beginnings in the 1990s of a forest transition – from an industrial to a post‐industrial stage in forest utilisation – in Thailand.     

长山群岛港口地域组合空间结构演化定量分析

在国内外相关研究文献综述的基础上,构建了港口联系强度指数和综合基尼系数,对1986~2004 年长山群 岛港口地域组合空间结构的演化特征进行定量分析,认为从1986 年到2004 年,大长山港口组合单元一直是长山 群岛最重要的门户港,长山群岛港口地域组合整体上看是趋向集中。并对长山群岛陆岛连接方案进行论证,对陆岛 连接工程建设后长山群岛港口地域组合空间结构进行情景分析,“大连———长山群岛”之间的连接、联系方式、途径 发生了变化,这将使长山群岛港口地域组合的空间结构大为改观。对长山群岛港口地域组合空间结构的演化趋势 进行预测。     

地震相和测井相联合预测火山岩相分布特征研究

以火山岩的基本地质特征、测井特征与测井相及其地震相特征与地震相分类为基础,依据测井相所建立的火山岩相模式,时地震相进行标定,形成由火山岩相、测井相和地震相组成的"三相"技术.该技术建立起"三相"之间的对应关系,以揭示火山岩相空间展布规律及变化特征.将"三相"技术应用于某盆地北部地区的营城组火山岩相研究.把营城组一段的地震相转换成火山岩相,得到火山岩相的平面分布,有效地预测出某盆地北部地区营城组一段火山岩的空间展布规律和火山岩储层有利相带.钻井证实:火山岩相之通道相岩石的物性最好,侵出相和爆发相次之,火山沉积相最差;火山岩相以火山颈岩物性最好,溢流相顶部次之.     

Y11B航空物探(电/磁)综合站西北找水初步成果

1997年9月23日～10月8日,在甘肃省安西—敦煌地区用Y11B航空物探(电/磁)综合站和GPS导航定位进行了地下水勘查试生产工作。用均匀大地模型,结合已知的水文地质资料,初步圈定了淡水区、过渡类型水区、咸水区和苦水区及泉水湖。所推断的水质和土壤含盐量与大的水文地质单元和1:20万水文地质普查报告都吻合得很好,且细节更为清楚。对差异较大的地方做了分析和解释。     

一种基于核学习的储集层渗透率预测新方法

基于核学习的支持向量机,是一种采用结构风险最小化原则代替传统经验风险最小化原则的新型统计学习方法,具有完备的理论基础。这里提出了核学习技术在储集层非均质特性描述中渗透率参数预测的新用途。在复杂地层中,基于支持向量机的智能和自适应模式识别能力而建立了常规测井多参数信息输入的渗透率预测模型,然后对实际油田储集层渗透率进行了预测。与常规线性回归模型预测结果相对比,所提出的方法更易于使用,很少受不确定因素的影响,并具有较强的信息整合能力以及更高的预测准确性和可信度。     

资阳地区震旦系古岩溶储层特征及测井评价

位于四川盆地的资阳地区在震旦系灯影组中发现了继威远震旦系气藏之后的又一大型气藏。区内７口钻井揭露的地层显示本区灯影组主要由一套震层状白云岩民,基质岩块具低孔低渗特点,有效的储集空间是由受古岩溶作用产生的溶蚀孔洞和构造作用产徨的裂缝共同构成,溶洞具有数量多,大洞多,发育集中的特点,裂缝具有成因,多期次,多产状的特点,对这套以缝洞型为玉的储层,由常规测井资料计算单一的物性参数（如孔隙度等）的方法难以其     

机载粉剂催化剂播撒设备的研制及其在奥运和残奥消云中的应用

人为引发的下沉气流可以抑制对流云的发展,这一现象已在试验中得到验证。用“人工下沉气流法”实施人工消云试验时,需在云顶大剂量的播撒粉剂催化剂。北京市人工影响天气办公室研制了能完成此类大剂量播撤任务的设备,并通过外场飞行试验对设备进行检验和改进。这是国内人工影响天气领域首个采用空投播撒法的粉剂催化剂播撤设备;可减少催化剂对飞机和播撤设备的污染。分析发现,新设备能够满足人工消云作业中播撒大剂量粉剂催化剂的需要。该设备在北京奥运会、残奥会开闭幕式当日的消云试验作业中投入使用,共实施消云飞行作业9架次,累计利用新设备播撒吸湿性粉剂催化剂34吨。     

资源三号卫星影像融合优化方法探讨

针对资源三号卫星影像如何进行影像融合、波段组合才能到达到最佳视觉效果还没有统一意见的问题,该文提出了利用目前测绘项目中普遍采用的融合算法、波段组合比例对不同地形类别资源三号卫星影像进行实验验证的方法。综合主观评价与客观评价融合后的影像质量,得出了Subtractive、Pansharp和Pansharp2方法较为适合资源三号卫星影像融合的结论,其中绿波段与近红外波段的最佳组合比为9∶1。同时,分析了资源三号卫星影像融合后数据量大大增加、如何将近红外波段的波谱信息合理地加入到红、绿、蓝波段中等问题。