基于加权影响力系数模型的区域产业结构分析——以新疆为例

 传统的产业结构分析一般将影响力因子作为优势产业选择的积极因素。但在实际中,对于处于衰退阶段的产业,较大的影响力往往意味着对区域经济发展的巨大阻滞作用。利用部门增加值进行加权的加权影响力系数的概念和方法,并结合产业增长率提出了对各产业部门发展状况进行分析的象限分析模型。运用所提出的模型,利用新疆42部门投入产出表对新疆产业发展现状进行了实证分析。结果表明：新疆石油天然气开采、化学工业等5个产业部门为强影响力-高增长速度部门,对国民经济拉动动作用明显;农林牧渔、建筑等4个产业部门为强影响力-低增长速度部门,对国民经济增长有较大的阻滞作用,有可能带来一系列的经济社会问题;仪器仪表及文化用品制造、通信设备与计算机制造等12个产业部门为低影响力-高增长速度部门,具有培育成为主导产业的潜力。     

Controls on event runoff coefficients in the eastern Italian Alps

Analyses of event runoff coefficients provide essential insight on catchment response, particularly if a range of catchments and a range of events are compared by a single indicator. In this study we examine the effect of climate, geology, land use, flood types and initial soil moisture conditions on the distribution functions of the event runoff coefficients for a set of 14 mountainous catchments located in the eastern Italian Alps, ranging in size from 7.3 to 608.4 km². Runoff coefficients were computed from hourly precipitation, runoff data and estimates of snowmelt. A total of 535 events were analysed over the period 1989–2004. We classified each basin using a “permeability index” which was inferred from a geologic map and ranged from “low” to “high permeability”. A continuous soil moisture accounting model was applied to each catchment to classify ‘wet’ and ‘dry’ initial soil moisture conditions. The results indicate that the spatial distribution of runoff coefficients is highly correlated with mean annual precipitation, with the mean runoff coefficient increasing with mean annual precipitation. Geology, through the ‘permeability index’, is another important control on runoff coefficients for catchments with mean annual precipitation less than 1200 mm. Land use, as indexed by the SCS curve number, influences runoff coefficient distribution to a lesser degree. An analysis of the runoff coefficients by flood type indicates that runoff coefficients increase with event snowmelt. Results show that there exists an intermediate region of subsurface water storage capacity, as indexed by a flow–duration curve-based index, which maximises the impact of initial wetness conditions on the runoff coefficient. This means that the difference between runoff coefficients characterised by wet and dry initial conditions is negligible both for basins with very large storage capacity and for basins with small storage capacity. For basins with intermediate storage capacities, the impact of the initial wetness conditions may be relatively large.     

Study on snowmelt runoff simulation in the Kaidu River basin

Alpine snowmelt is an important generation mode for runoff in the source region of the Tarim River basin, which covers four subbasins characterized by large area, sparse gauge stations, mixed runoff supplied by snowmelt and rainfall, and remarkably spatially heterogeneous precipitation. Taking the Kaidu River basin as a research area, this study analyzes the influence of these characteristics on the variables and parameters of the Snow Runoff Model and discusses the corresponding determination strategy to improve the accuracy of snowmelt simulation and forecast. The results show that: (i) The temperature controls the overall tendency of simulated runoff and is dominant to simulation accuracy, as the measured daily mean temperature cannot represent the average level of the same elevation in the basin and that directly inputting it to model leads to inaccurate simulations. Based on the analysis of remote sensing snow maps and simulation results, it is reasonable to approximate the mean temperature with 0.5 time daily maximum temperature. (ii) For the conflict between the limited gauge sta-tion and remarkably spatial heterogeneity of rainfall, it is not realistic to compute rainfall for each elevation zone. After the measured rainfall is multiplied by a proper coefficient and adjusted with runoff coefficient for rainfall, the measured rainfall data can satisfy the model demands. (iii) Adjusting time lag according to the variation of snowmelt and rainfall position can improve the simulation precision of the flood peak process. (iv) Along with temperature, the rainfall increases but cannot be completely monitored by limited gauge stations, which results in precision deterioration.     

Fundamental study on the response characteristics of drivers during an earthquake based on driving simulator experiments

After the 1995 Kobe earthquake, the expressway structures in Japan were retrofitted and they will not now be seriously damaged under a certain level of strong earthquake motion. However, the stability of a moving vehicle has not been investigated yet. It has been reported that drivers feel seismically induced vibrations, especially in the transverse direction of vehicles. Owing to this phenomenon, drivers have some difficulty in controlling the vehicles during strong shaking. For further safety promotion of the expressway networks, it is important to understand the drivers' reactions to seismic motion. The present authors have performed a series of seismic response analyses of a moving vehicle to investigate its response characteristics based on numerical simulation. However, the responses of the driver were not considered in the simulation process. In order to investigate the drivers' reactions during an earthquake, a series of virtual tests were conducted using a driving simulator. This driving simulator has six servomotor‐powered electric actuators that control its motions. Several types of tests were carried out for different examinees to investigate drivers' responses while controlling the simulator under seismic motion. The results of this study showed that a larger response time lag to strong shaking and over turning of the steering wheel may shift the vehicle into the next lane. According to this finding, trafficaccidents could possibly occur under strong ground shaking in the case of heavy traffic. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

大气折光系数测定及在悬索桥基准索股线形测量中的应用

大跨度悬索桥基准索股跨中位置处于百米高空,如何测得精确的垂度值,对主缆线形进行控制至关重要。本文分析了影响悬索桥基准索股垂度测量精度的主要因素,提出了基于实时大气折光系数改正的单向三角高程的跨中垂度测量新方法。在桥址区建立高精度的高差基准,通过对桥址区的大气折光系数的测定及改正试验,证明该测量方法切实可行。基准索股跨中垂度采用双测站进行测量,当双测站所测同一点绝对垂度互差小于10 mm时,取双测站所测垂度均值作为该点的垂度值。该方法的测量结果达到设计精度要求,对同类工程测量项目有借鉴意义。     

一种近岸区波浪破碎模型

从波浪破碎的能量关系入手,以紊流能量方程为基础,考虑破碎区内单个波在不同破碎阶段所提供的紊动能量强度的变化过程,提出了一种波浪破碎模式.通过将这一模型引入Boussinesq方程中,初步建立了一种近岸区波浪变形数学模型,并用波浪水槽实验资料对模型模拟波高和平均水位的情况进行了初步验证,得到了良好的结果.     

南沙群岛海域水体漫衰减系数Kd(490)的特性研究

对南沙群岛海区水体Kd(490）的特性进行了深入分析和探讨,研究结果表明：Kd（490）的垂直分布与同步测量的海水叶绿素a浓度的垂直分布有很强的相关性;Kd（490）的垂直分布反映出该区域海水存在较强的分层现象,研究中还发现上行辐亮度漫衰减系数KL（490）与Kd（490）垂直变化趋势相当一致,但是以二者达到最大值的深度为界,上层水体的KL（490）值稍大于Kd(490）值,在这一深度以下则相反。     

Shape optimization of two-dimensional cavitators in supercavitating flows, using NSGA II algorithm

The reduction of energy consumption of high speed submersible bodies is an important challenge in hydrodynamic researches. In this paper, shape optimization of two-dimensional cavitators in supercavitating flows is studied. A two dimensional supercavitation potential flow passes a symmetric two dimensional cavitator, which is placed perpendicular to the flow in a channel of infinite length and immediately a cavity is formed behind the cavitator. This is because of the generation of a gas or vapor cavity between the body and the surrounding liquid due to the change in a high speed flow direction passing the cavitator. Drag force acting on this supercavitating body dictates the thrust requirements for the propulsion system, to maintain a required cavity at the operating speed. Therefore, any reduction in the drag force, by modifying the shape of the cavitator, will lead to decrease this force. This study concentrates on the optimization of two dimensional cavitators in order to decrease drag coefficient for a specified after body length and velocity in a potential flow. To achieve this goal a multi-objective optimization problem is defined to optimize cavitator shapes in supercavitating flow. The so-called NSGA II (Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm) algorithm is used as an optimization method. Design parameters and constraints are obtained according to supercavitating flow characteristics and cavitator modeling and objective functions are generated using Linear Regression Method. The obtained results are compared with other classic optimization methods, like the weighted sum method, for validation.     

Terrestrial surface-area increment: the effects of topography,DEM resolution,and algorithm

The area increment of land surface compared with its projected area is an effect of topographic relief and is also a source of environmental variations. To examine the effects of topography and data resolution on surface area calculation, we calculated incremental area coefficients (IACs), based on two different algorithms, for a DEM of China at a series of spatial resolutions. Sampling the DEM with a regional network of 50?km?×?50?km cell size, we explored the relationships among the two IACs and topographic features. Both IACs studied were exponential functions of resolution. At 30-m resolution, the IACs were 4.31 and 4.89% over China, respectively. The largest increment for a 50?km?×?50?km cell was >45%. Between the IACs there was a linear relationship that varied with DEM resolution. Hierarchical variation partitioning revealed that the factors included contributed in a very similar percentage composition to the two IACs, mean slope (37.5 or 38.7%) and standard deviation of slope (22.3 or 19.6%) at local scale dominated the area increment, followed by regional elevation range. Data resolution contributed about 10%, while the deviation of slope exposure only had minimal (1.4 or 1.7%) impact on surface-area increment. For a specific type of geomorphology, a threshold resolution of DEM can be determined, below which the surface-area increment (i.e., IAC) is negligible. Our results provided the first comprehensive estimate of the contributions of the topographic features, DEM resolution, and algorithms for the surface-area increment, and indicated the scale-related properties and potential environmental consequences of topographic heterogeneity in various estimates of natural resources and ecosystem functions when area needs to be taken into account.     

Size Scaling of Cross Correlation Between Multiple Variables

Reservoir models have large uncertainty because of spatial variability and limited sample data. The ultimate aim is to use simultaneously all available data sources to reduce uncertainty and provide reliable reservoir models for resource assessment and flow simulation. Seismic impedance or some other attribute provides a key source of data for reservoir modeling. These seismic data are at a coarser scale than the hard well data and it not an exact measurement of facies proportions or porosity. A requirement for data integration is the cross-covariance between the well and seismic data.The size-scaling behavior of the cross correlation for different measurement scales was nvestigated. The size-scaling relationship is derived theoretically and validated by numerical studies (including an example with real data). The limit properties of the cross-correlation coefficient when the averaging volume becomes large is shown. After some averaging volume, the volume-dependent cross-correlation coefficient reaches a limit value. This plateau value is controlled mainly by the large-scale behavior of the cross and direct variograms.The cross correlation can increase or decrease with volume support depending on the relative importance of long- and short-scale covariance structures. If the direct and cross variograms are proportional, there is no change in the cross correlation as the averaging volume changes. Our study shows that the volume-dependent cross-correlation coefficient is sensitive to the shape of the cross variogram and differences between the direct variograms of the well data and seismic data.