Evaluating Earthquake-Triggered Landslide Hazard at the Basin Scale Through Gis in the Upper Sele River Valley

To evaluate techniques for assessing earthquake-triggeredlandslide hazard in the Southern Apennines (Italy), a GIS-based analysis was used to modelseismically induced slope deformations. Geological, geotechnical, geomorphological and seismologicaldata were integrated into a standard earthquake slope stability model. The model assessed thelandslide potential that existed during the 1980 Irpinian earthquake in the Upper Sele river Valley.The standard Newmark displacement analysis, widely used for predicting the location of shallowunstable slopes, does not take into account errors and/or uncertainties in the input parameters.Therefore, a probabilistic Newmark displacement analysis technique has been used. Probabilistictechniques allow, e.g., an estimation of the probability that a slope will exceed a certain criticalvalue of Newmark displacement. In our probabilistic method, a Monte-Carlo based simulation modelis used in conjunction with a GIS. The random variability of geotechnical data is modelled by probabilitydensity functions (pdfs), while for the seismic input three different regression laws wereconsidered. Input probability distributions are sampled and the resulting values input into empiricalrelations for estimating Newmark displacement. The outcome is a map in which to each siteis related a spatial probability distribution for the expected displacement in response to seismic loading.Results of the experiments show a high grade of uncertainty in the application of the Newmarkanalysis both for the deterministic and probabilistic approach in a complex geological setting suchas the high Sele valley, quite common in the Southern Apennines. They show a strong dependence onthe reliability of the spatial data used in input, so that, when the model is used at basin scale,results are strongly influenced by local environmental condition (e.g., topography, lithology, groundwatercondition) and decrease the model performance.     

Optimal placement of dampers and actuators based on stochastic approach

A general method is developed for optimal application of dampers and actuators by installing them at optimal location on seismic-resistant structures. The study includes development of a statistical criterion, formulation of a general optimization problem and establishment of a solution procedure. Numerical analysis of the seismic response in time-history of controlled structures is used to verify the proposed method for optimal device application and to demonstrate the effectiveness of seismic response control with optimal device location. This study shows that the proposed method for the optimal device application is simple and general, and that the optimally applied dampers and actuators are very efficient for seismic response reduction.     

云南中强震的水氡前兆异常特征

2001年云南澜沧5.0、施甸5.2,5.9,5.3、宁蒗5.8、楚雄5.3和江川5.1级地震前，云南49项水氡前兆中的一些台站出现突出的异常。研究发现，根据这些异常项的异常特征和空间分布特征及历史震例，可对这几次地震预报的三要素，尤其是地点和时间做出较好的判断。     

川滇地区地震(Ms≥5.0)破裂类型与前兆异常分布的关系

对川滇地区 31次 (组 ) 5 .0级以上地震与余震次数的关系进行了统计 ,结合“强地震分为走滑型地震和断错型地震”的理论 ,确定了各次 (组 )地震的破裂类型。从物理机制上对地震破裂类型与震前前兆异常分布关系进行了讨论 ,由此进一步探讨了 5 .0级以上地震震后趋势预测     

Nonlinear earthquake response analysis and energy calculation for seismic slit shear wall structures

Based on the concept of structural passive control, a new type of slit shear wall, with improved seismic performance when compared to an ordinary solid shear wall, was proposed by the authors in 1996. The idea has been verified by a series of pseudo-static and dynamic tests. In this paper a macro numerical model is developed for the wall element and the energy dissipation device. Then, nonlinear time history analysis is carried out for a 10-story slit shear wall model tested on a shaking table. Furthermore, the seismic input energy and the individual energy dissipated by the components are calculated by a method based on Newmark-β assumptions for this shear wall model, and the advantages of this shear wall are further demonstrated by the calculation results from the viewpoint of energy. Finally, according to the seismic damage criterion on the basis of plastic accumulative energy and maximum response, the optimal analysis is carried out to select design parameters for the energy dissipation device.     

Models of passive margin inversion: implications for the Rhenohercynian fold-and-thrust belt, Belgium and Germany

Positive tectonic inversion is related to the transmission of compressional stresses along a décollement into the foreland of an orogenic zone. This stress and strain concentration in regions remote from the main orogenic front is commonly related to the presence of pre-existing rheological heterogeneities such as normal syn-depositional faults. During inversion, these pre-existing normal faults are reactivated as reverse faults. Tectonic inversion in the Rhenohercynian fold-and-thrust belt during the Variscan Orogeny shows that inversion is likely synchronous with the onset of collision in the hinterland. Here, we present the results of a simplified thermo-mechanical model (STM) which allows one to study strain partitioning between two orogenic zones. We show that, if the two orogenic zones have the same mechanical properties, the viscosity of the décollement, which links them, controls the initial strain partitioning. During subsequent finite shortening, erosional processes determine the partitioning of strain rate. The presence of a weak structure in the inverted zone and of a low-viscosity décollement leads to initial strain concentration in the inverted track rather than in the collision zone and a progressive decrease in strain partitioning between the two orogenic zones. The STM results are in good agreement with results of a 2D finite-element model. We conclude that, in the western part of the Rhenohercynian Massif, simultaneous uplift and deformation within the Mid-German Crystalline Rise (the main collision zone) and the Ardenne Anticlinorium (the inverted zone) lead to interpreting this orogenic event as a case of vice tectonic rather than the propagation of a ‘wave of folding’ towards the Variscan front, as suggested by previous authors.     

北京地区城市化过程与机制研究

在长时间序列高分辨率Landsat TM/MSS数据的支持下，对北京地区1975-1997年城市化基本过程和驱动机制进行了分析研究，基本结论如下；（1）北京地区城市化过程主要表现为中心大区和边缘次级中心区的面状城市化，中心大区和边缘次级中心区之间沿交通干线的线状城市化以及中心大区与边缘次级中心区之间的点状城市化3种基本模式，其中，中心大区、在城市边缘区的面状成都市化过程在区域内居于优势地位。（2）北京地区城市化过程和城市格局的形成是地形，交通等内在适应性因素和经济因素，政府行为，文化传统，突发事件等外在驱动因素共同作用的结果。其中，城市规划，产业发展政策等政府行为和3000年城市发展形成的旧有城市格局和古都风貌从根本上决定了现代北京城市发展的基本过程。     

疏勒河流域昌马灌区泉水量预测分析

疏勒河流域农业灌溉主要采用地表水灌溉 ,泉水为该区农业灌溉的主要水源之一 ,该文利用 2 0世纪 90年代的测流资料 ,采用有限差分方法对疏勒河中游泉水量的变化趋势进行预测分析 ,结果显示 ,随着时间的延长 ,泉流量呈逐渐减小的趋势 ,但下降梯度逐渐变小 ,最终趋于稳定     

大连市城市内部居住环境评价的空间结构——基于面源模型的分析

以大连市为例 ,首先利用ARC/INFO软件将研究地区划分成 162个元胞作为评价的基本空间单元 ,建立了居住环境评价的面源模型。其次利用MDS方法确定了评价因子、列联表法验证了居民属性与居住环境评价之间的相互独立程度、因子分析方法探讨了居住环境评价结构的平行性。最后应用GIS对居住环境评价空间分异现象进行了分析。     

云南省金沙江流域水土流失基本特征分析

在应用新近建立的云南金沙江流域土壤流失方程测算该流域各县(市、区)年均土壤流失总量和各地类年均 土壤流失量基础上,分析了该流域水土流失的总体特征、各地类水土流失特征和不同坡度级坡耕地的水土流失特 征,为因地制宜地防治水土流失提供了依据。