基于大数据分析下的气候模型

为研究全球变暖与极寒天气间的关系,对加拿大13个省代表性测站10年的观测数据进行时空变化趋势分析,采用经验正交函数(EOF)寻找海洋表面温度历史数据的变化规律。另外利用BP神经网络建立了年平均温度、日降水量与地球吸热、散热、海表面温度、当地纬度间的关系,预测未来25年气候的变化,并建立了"极寒天气"与气候变化的关系模型。研究表明:高纬度地区温度、降水量普遍较低,同经度地区的温度差异较小且降水量变化不大;加拿大地区温度呈周期性变化,符合北半球的季节变化特征;北大西洋的东部与其他海洋的温度是反相关的,西太平洋南北回归线附近的海洋表面温度升高;"极寒天气"出现频率与气候变化有一定关系,局地极寒现象与全球变暖的大趋势并不矛盾。本研究为人们认识和理解"全球变暖"提供了一个新的思路。     

冷泉系统甲烷气体渗漏的声学特征及潜在环境效应

The amount of methane leaked from deep sea cold seeps is enormous and potentially affects the global warming,ocean acidification and global carbon cycle. It is of great significance to study the methane bubble movement and dissolution process in the water column and its output to the atmosphere. Methane bubbles produce strong acoustic impedance in water bodies, and bubble strings released from deep sea cold seeps are called "gas flares"which expressed as flame-like strong backscatter in the water column. We characterized the morphology and movement of methane bubbles released into the water using multibeam water column data at two cold seeps. The result shows that methane at site I reached 920 m water depth without passing through the top of the gas hydrate stability zone(GHSZ, 850 m), while methane bubbles at site II passed through the top of the GHSZ(597 m) and entered the non-GHSZ(above 550 m). By applying two methods on the multibeam data, the bubble rising velocity in the water column at sites I and II were estimated to be 9.6 cm/s and 24 cm/s, respectively. Bubble velocity is positively associated with water depth which is inferred to be resulted from decrease of bubble size during methane ascending in the water. Combined with numerical simulation, we concluded that formation of gas hydrate shells plays an important role in helping methane bubbles entering the upper water bodies, while other factors, including water depth, bubble velocity, initial kinetic energy and bubble size, also influence the bubble residence time in the water and the possibility of methane entering the atmosphere. We estimate that methane gas flux at these two sites is 0.4×10~6–87.6×10~6 mol/a which is extremely small compared to the total amount of methane in the ocean body, however, methane leakage might exert significant impact on the ocean acidification considering the widespread distributed cold seeps. In addition, although methane entering the atmosphere is not observed, further research is still needed to understand its potential impact on increasing methane concentration in the surface seawater and gas-water interface methane exchange rate, which consequently increase the greenhouse effect.     

Meio-epifaunal wood colonization in the vicinity of methane seeps

In deep-sea environments, plant remains of several origins are found, including branches, twigs, leaves, and wood pieces, among others. As most of the deep-sea bottoms are oligotrophic and nutrient-limited, plant remains provide an oasis of localized organic enrichment and a substrate for colonization. Sunken wood was suggested to play an important evolutionary role in the diversification of chemosynthetic ecosystems, possibly representing stepping stones for the colonization between vent and seep ecosystems. In order to understand colonization processes of the Pacific Costa Rican meio-epifaunal assemblages associated with sunken wood, a field experiment was conducted on Mound 12 (8°55.778′N, 84°18.730′W) at ~1,000 m water depth. Woodblocks were placed in four different habitats (Mussel beds, tube worms, near mussel beds, rubble bottoms), and different local environmental conditions (seepage-active and seepage-inactive sites). Seven experimental Douglas fir woodblocks (each 1,047 cm² in surface area) were deployed from the R/V Atlantis using the manned submersible Alvin in February 2009 and recovered after 10.5 months in January 2010. Sample processing and analyses led to a data set of abundance (total 9,951 individuals) and spatial distribution of nine meio-epifaunal higher taxa/groups. Meio-epifaunal densities on individual woodblocks ranged from 3 to 26 ind.10 cm². Copepods accounted for the highest abundances (75.1%), followed by nauplii larvae (11.7%) and nematodes (9.8%). The maximum number of individuals (26.3 ind.10 cm⁻²) was found in blocks placed in seepage-inactive areas (near active mussel beds) in contrast to 2.9 ind.10 cm⁻² in active areas (within a mussel bed). A hierarchical cluster analysis grouped blocks according to seepage activity and not to habitat, but tests of similarity showed no significant differences in higher taxon composition and abundances, probably owing either to substrate homogeneity or low sample size. Copepods were the most abundant representatives, suggesting that this group is one of the most successful in colonizing in the early stage of succession, in this case while hardwood substrates are not yet decomposed or bored by bivalves.     

台湾东北海域冷水块的特征

根据海洋调查历史资料 ,对台湾东北海域冷水块的时空分布、结构、特点进行分析 ,主要结果如下 :(1 )首次利用卫星跟踪漂流浮标的轨迹 ,佐证冬季该冷水块的存在。 (2 )鉴于该冷水的重要性 ,建议对它给予称谓 ,暂定名为“彭花棉”冷水块。 (3 )该冷水块是黑潮次表层水涌升的结果 ,是黑潮对我国近海海洋环境影响的典型实例之一。 (4)该冷水块具有低温、高盐、高密、低氧、高磷、高硅和高氮等特性     

2015年台风“彩虹”过境后下山冷急流引起的南海北部海域异常海面降温

This study deals with a unusual cooling event after Typhoon Mujigea passed over the northern South China Sea(SCS) in October 2015. We analyze the satellite sea surface temperature(SST) time series from October 3 to 18,2015 and find that the cooling process in the coastal ocean had two different stages. The first stage occurred immediately after typhoon passage on October 3, and reached a maximum SST drop of –2℃ on October 7 as the usual cold wake after typhoon. The second stage or the unusual extended cooling event occurred after 7d of the typhoon passage, and lasted for 5d from October 10 to 15. The maximum SST cooling was –4℃ and occurred after 12d of typhoon passage. The mechanism analysis results indicate that after landing and moving northwestward to the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau(YGP), Typhoon Mujigea(2015) met the westerly wind front on October 5. The lowpressure and positive-vorticity disturbances to the front triggered meridional air flow and low-pressure trough,thus induced a katabatic cold jet downward from the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP) passing through the YGP to the northwestern SCS. The second cooling reached the maximum SST drop 4d later after the maximum air temperature drop of –9℃ on October 11. The simultaneous air temperature and SST observations at three coastal stations reveal that it is this katabatic cold jet intrusion to lead the unusual SST cooling event.     

真鲷三倍体诱导初步研究

在真鲷Pagrosomusmajor三倍体诱导研究中，对染色体倍数的分析表明，受精卵受精5min后，在1．5℃冰水中处理5min，可获得17％的三倍体诱导率和28％的嵌合体比率，染色体数分别是：2N＝48，3N＝7Z，嵌合体50—68。仔鱼红血细胞测量和组织切片分析显示，三倍体和二倍体的红血细胞核直径（长径，下同）、视网膜神经节细胞核直径和中脑细胞核直径大小存在差异，其比率分别是1．42，1．35和1．41，这种差别必然导致三倍体鱼和二倍体鱼在代谢与功能方面的差异。应加强对鱼类三倍体形成机制及应用潜力的研究，同时注意开展其生理学、生化学和行为学的比较研究。     

南太平洋辐合带(SPCZ)的特征分析

根据热带西太平洋卫星云图资料及流场特征分析,讨论了南太平洋辐合带(SPCZ)的演变特征和形成机理。提出SPCZ是反映西太暖池同东太冷舌海气耦合系统以及暖池大气同相邻陆区大气间相互作用的重要特征。主要表现为在12～2月的热带西太平洋上的NW/SE辐合带,其形成原因主要应归因于西太暖池本身,以及暖池与东太赤道冷水舌强度与相对位置改变引发的Walker环流位置与走向的变动,另外,新几内亚岛及澳洲大陆也有重要影响。     

基于雷达和微波辐射计的湖北省冷季“高架雷暴”特征分析

利用常规观测、加密自动气象站、三维闪电定位仪、天气雷达和地基微波辐射计资料等,对湖北冷季(2014年11月)发生的3次高架雷暴过程进行了分析。(1)3次过程发生在地面冷锋后部地面冷气团中,主要以短时强降水和频繁的雷电活动为主,是典型的冷季"高架雷暴",对流区位于地面冷锋后部500 km左右。(2)地面到925 hPa的冷垫,迫使暖湿气流爬升,在925 hPa逆温层附近触发对流,冷垫之上西南暖湿气流越强,对流越旺盛,雷达径向速度剖面可以明显看到1 km之下的冷垫。(3)冷季高架雷暴雷电活动剧烈,CG(地闪)占总闪比例60%以上,而+CG则占CG的40%左右,闪电频次和降水有很好的时空对应关系,CG出现在较强降水中心附近及周围,IC和CG突增对降水均有一定的时间提前量。CG更靠近强回波中心,且和≥30 dBZ的回波位置对应较好,IC则分布在雷暴单体外侧回波强度≥15 dBZ的区域。0Ⅱ等温线以上的(最大)回波强度达到43 dBZ以上或者18 dBZ回波顶高超过7.5 km是湖北冷季高架雷暴是否发生雷电的重要预警因子。(4)地基微波辐射计温度、湿度廓线和探空曲线基本吻合,可以看到明显的冷垫、...     

Implementing adaptation in developed countries: an analysis of progress and trends

Little attention has been paid thus far to the experiences of developed countries in adapting to climate change. This article addresses this research gap by providing an assessment of broad trends in progress on planning and implementing adaptation in developed countries. Primary inputs are the National Communications (NCs) by these countries to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), although the article also discusses illustrative examples of recent adaptation activities that have not been covered in the NCs. NCs reflect ‘whole government’ perspectives and follow a standardized reporting format, which facilitates cross-national comparisons. The analysis shows that impacts and adaptation receive limited attention within NCs. The discussion on impacts and adaptation has typically been dominated by climate scenarios and impacts analysis, while the discussion on adaptation is often limited to the identification of generic options. There are signs of recent progress, however, in the Third and especially the Fourth NCs, in which a growing number of developed countries report on establishing frameworks for adaptation and on efforts to implement adaptation measures that take future climate into account. Although an encouraging sign, it is still too early to assess the eventual impact of such measures.     

暴雨类冷涡与非暴雨类冷涡的合成对比分析

选择了８例典型的东北冷涡暴雨过程和８例典型的东北冷涡弱降水过程进行了合成对比分析，发现暴雨类冷涡其暴雨主要出现在冷涡的发展阶段，而非暴雨类冷涡的降水主要发生在冷涡的成熟阶段；暴雨类冷涡与其南侧的副热带低值系统联系密切，非暴雨类冷涡的这一特点不甚明显；暴雨类冷涡的两个降水中心分别出现在系统东侧偏南和南侧偏东一些的地，距系统中心大约３００－４００ｋｍ和７００－８００ｋｍ，这些区域处于低层辐合、高层辐菜