甘肃省高寒阴湿区农业气候区划与资源利用研究

从分析甘肃省高寒阴湿区农业气候资源入手，划分出高寒阴湿区的气候界线，研究了种植业的气候资源优劣及其农业气象灾害，提出了合理利用途径。     

崇信县甘薯气候适应性分析与种植技术

对崇信县甘薯气候适应性分析发现，在栽苗到封垄期温度偏低，而封垄前覆膜可解决热量不足问题；水分条件基本能满足甘薯生长需要。采用适当种植技术，可使甘薯获得较高产量。     

茶叶寒冻害天气指数保险设计

以茶叶萌芽至展叶期寒冻害为突破口,利用1987—2016年福建省泉州市安溪县17个自动气象站2—4月的逐日气象数据及安溪各茶树种植区产量数据,确定茶叶寒冻害的天气指数保险气象指标,分析日极端最低气温与茶叶减产率的关系,建立了茶叶寒冻害指数模型。计算安溪不同区域茶叶种植区不同等级寒冻害的发生概率,应用纯保费率方法厘定了保险费率,并根据福建省政策性农业保险的实际情况,制定茶叶不同区域种植区寒冻害指数保险触发条件、赔付标准,设计了安溪县茶叶寒冻害天气指数保险合同。设计的茶叶寒冻害天气指数保险产品以客观气象数据作为定损依据,可以为茶农提供一种有效的风险转嫁方式,也为保险公司增加新险种提供了技术支撑。     

BCC第二代气候预测模式系统对2015年一次寒潮过程的预报能力评估

利用BCC第二代气候预测模式系统(BCC_CSM2)的回报试验结果,评估了BCC_CSM2对2015年1月27—31日一次强寒潮过程的次季节预报能力,结果表明:(1)此次寒潮过程主要由新地岛以西的短波槽不断东移发展而形成的,模式能够提前10 d较好地预报过程期间降温以及高空环流形势,相关系数、距平符号一致率以及均方根误差都定量表明模式在10 d左右具有较好的预报能力,但是对降温程度的预报能力随起报时间的延长逐渐降低;(2)为了探讨随起报时间延长模式预报能力降低的原因,从位势倾向方程出发,分析相对涡度平流和温度平流随高度变化发现,在模式提前10 d之内的预报时段内,模式预报的相对涡度平流和温度平流随高度变化与再分析资料的诊断结果基本一致,能够合理预测短波槽的东移和槽脊的强度变化,当预报超过10 d后,模式中相对涡度平流的配置不利于短波槽的东移,模式预报的低层出现暖平流,并随高度增加而减小,不利于槽的加深,使模式预报的环流形势产生偏差,导致模式预报能力降低。     

河南春季一次层状云降水云物理结构分析

河南2000年4月14日的降水由冷锋和西南涡产生，降水云系分布不均匀，云图上云区间有带状云隙，雷达回波图上出现两条带状回波，云带内部分布也不均匀，垂直方向上降水云系有分层现象。分析了降水云系的微物理特征，根据可播度的PMS指标确定了航线上过冷水丰富的区域，结合卫星、雷达资料讨论了过冷水丰富区域的分布特征，还讨论了降水云系内部存在的对流不稳定。     

云南冷锋切变型暴雨的中尺度特征分析

利用T106数值预报产品资料，通过中尺度滤波方法，提取云南冷锋切变型暴雨过程中的中尺度降水系统，对其有关物理量的特征及演变进行了分析。研究发现，通过中尺度滤波方法，可以从常规的数值预报产品资料中有效分离出直接导致暴雨的中尺度天气系统，通过对这些中尺度系统的分析及追踪，可以为暴雨预报提供更为客观的预报依据；水汽的强辐合时段与暴雨降落时段有较好的对应关系，暴雨落区比水汽的强辐合区域要稍偏向于水汽输送的下游方向；在该型暴雨的发生过程中，北部冷平流具有十分重要的作用，但南部暖平流的作用也不可忽视。     

Detection of station coordinate discontinuities within the Italian GPS Fiducial Network

The Detection Identification Adaptation (DIA) procedure was applied to the coordinate time-series of some permanent GPS stations belonging to the Italian GPS Fiducial Network (IGFN), of the Italian Space Agency (ASI), to detect discontinuities and to reject outliers. The daily solutions of the stations of Cagliari, Genoa, Medicina, Noto, Turin, Perugia and Venice were computed for the period 1997.0–2003.0 using Bernese GPS software v.4.2. The data were interpolated using a model with a linear term and an annual periodic term. The parameters were estimated by least squares. The DIA procedure was organized to automatically detect discontinuities and outliers. Approximately, 70% of the discontinuities present in the coordinate time-series were identified and their magnitudes were estimated. The identified discontinuities are basically caused by equipment replacement and reference frame changes, but in a few cases the reason is still unknown. With regard to the outliers, roughly 6% of the data were rejected. These data were considered outliers on the base of the level of significance and of the power of the test adopted in this work. Except for the stations of Perugia and Venice, the estimated coordinates agree with ITRF2000 values at the 10 mm level, and the estimated velocities are within a few mm/year of the ITRF2000 values.     

龙门山国家地质公园飞来峰成因的新证据

近来发现四川彭州（原称彭县）、什邡一带的飞来峰是第四纪冰川作用形成的。笔者等在塘坝子、葛仙山等飞来峰的底界及周边，多次发现飞来峰是压在早更新世的冰水堆积层之上。葛仙山北寨门、丁家湾，什邡大垭口等剖面的地质现象，充分说明塘坝子、葛仙山等飞来峰是第四纪中更新世时“飞”来，压盖上去的。同时可见飞来峰与第四系之间是“冷接触”，找不到确切的断层证据。笔者等还用现有的区域地质调查资料及新的地质成果，编制了1：10万更新世时的彭县至汶川的地质剖面图，并设想了冰雪层掩盖情况。那时岷江尚未剥蚀下切，按现在标高计的5000m处，即在光光山、太子城之上约1000m的“天”上。当时应在该处出露的石炭系-二叠系石灰岩，就是塘坝子、葛仙山飞来峰的根部。塘坝子、葛仙山就是从那里被冰川作用剪切、从母体分离的石灰岩，滑动、随冰川固体流，滑移到彭县来的。笔者还从理论上阐述了塘坝子、尖峰顶、天台山等如此巨大的山体，能被冰川作用拔起、挖掉、推走的原因和根据。从而解释了飞来峰“飞”行的过程。顺理成章，合乎自然，揭开了飞来峰之迷。     

《翁同龢日记》中的冷暖感知记录及其对气候冷暖变化的指示意义

依据清代《翁同龢日记》（以下简称《日记》）中逐日的冷暖感知记录和同时期的器测月均温资料，采用相关分析和线性回归分析等统计方法，以月为基本统计单元，对《日记》中冷暖感知记录反演气候变化的能力进行了分析。结果说明，《日记》中的冷暖感知记录可以用于气候变化研究，但是最佳代用指标因气候变化的时间尺度和季节而异。总体而言，极热、偏热、偏凉、极冷日数对年内月到季时间尺度气候变化的代表性较好，其中尤以偏凉和极冷日数最佳。 对于年际尺度上的气候波动，从季节对比来看，冷暖感知日数反演夏季（6-8月份）月均温的能力最差；从冷暖感知类型对比来看，极冷日数是多个月份月均温的最佳代用指标，1、3、5、9和12月份的最佳代用指标均是极冷日数。并且，还可以依据极冷日数的多寡识别极端冷、极端热年。由此可见，古代私人日记中的冷暖感知记录可以用于反演历史时期气候的冷暖变化。     

Cold Air Activities in July 2004 and Its Impact on Intense Rainfalls over Southwest China

The severe rainfall events in the mid-summer of July 2004 and the roles of cold air in the forma- tion of heavy precipitation are investigated by using daily observational precipitation data of China and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis.The results show that the severe rainfalls in Southwest China are closely related to the cold air activities from the mid-high latitudes,and the events take place under the cooperative effects of mid-high latitude circulation and low latitude synoptic regimes.It is the merging of a cold vortex over mid-latitudes with the northward landing typhoon and eastward Southwest China Vortex,as well as the abrupt transformation from a transversal trough into an upright one that causes three large alterations of mid-high atmospheric circulation respectively in the early and middle ten days of this month.Then,the amplitude of long waves soon magnifies,leading to the unusual intrusion of cold air to low-latitude areas in the mid-summer.Meanwhile,the warm and humid southwest summer monsoon is quite active.The strong interactions of cold air and summer monsoon over Southwest China result in the large-scale convective rain- falls on the southern side of cold air. With regard to the activities of cold air,it can influence rainfalls in three prominent ways.Firstly,the incursion of upper-level cold air is often accompanied by partial southerly upper-level jet.The ascending branch of the corresponding secondary circulation,which is on the left front side of the jet center,provides the favorite dynamic upward motion for the rainfalls.Secondly,the southward movement of cold air contributes to the establishment of atmospheric baroclinic structure,which would lead to baroclinic disturbances.The atmospheric disturbances associated with the intrusion of cold air can destroy the potential instability strat- ification,release the convective available potential energy(CAPE)and finally cause convective activities.In addition,the advection processes of dry and cold air at the upper level along with the advection of humid and warm air at the lower level are rather significant for the reestablishment of potential instability in the precipitation area,which is one of the crucial factors contributing to persistent rainfalls.