Risk assessment for the Yucca Mountain high-level nuclear waste repository site: Estimation of volcanic disruption

In this article, we model the volcanism near the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, U.S.A. by estimating the instantaneous recurrence rate using a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with Weibull intensity and by using a homogeneous Poisson process to predict future eruptions. We then quantify the probability that any single eruption is disruptive in terms of a (prior) probability distribution, since not every eruption would result in disruption of the repository. Bayesian analysis is performed to evaluate the volcanic risk. Based on the Quaternary data, a 90% confidence interval for the instantaneous recurrence rate near the Yucca Mountain site is (1.85×10^–6/yr, 1.26×10^–5/yr). Also, using-these confidence bounds, the corresponding 90% confidence interval for the risk (probability of at least one disruptive eruption) for an isolation time of 10⁴ years is (1.0×10^–3, 6.7×10^–3), if it is assumed that the intensity remains constant during the projected time frame.     

利用马氏过程模拟和预测土壤侵蚀的动态演变─—以安徽省岳西县为例

本文根据安徽省岳西县１９５８－１９８２－１９９２年三个时期的遥感资料所编制的土壤侵蚀图，用点数转化法定量地分析岳西县上述两个阶段侵蚀演变和浸蚀类型之间的相互转化状况，确定相应的初始状态下（１９５８和１９８２）的转移概率矩阵，应用马尔科夫过程摸拟和预测岳西县土壤侵蚀及其格局的动态演变过程和未来演变趋势。     

The Coupled Re—Os and Pt—Os Systematics：A Theoretical Consideration

The ^190Pt-^186Os system should be a unique tracer for mantle processes be-cause both Pt and Os are concentrated in the mantle.The ^190Pt-^186Os system will also be a good supplement to the ^187Re-^187Os system for dating and tracing mantle pro-cesses because the ^190Pt-^186Os system is not so easily contaminated by crustal materials as the ^187Re-^187Os system.In turn,the application of the ^187Re-^187Os system to Pt-enriched materials uncontaminated by crustal materials will indirectly refine the half life of ^190Pt.The ^190Pt is refined.In the coupled ^187Re-^187Os and ^190Pt-^186Os sys-tematics,an ^186Os*/^190Pt-^187Os*/^187Re Concordia diagram similar to the ^206Pb*/^238U-^208Pb*/^232Th Concordia can be constructed.In such a Concordia diagram,a date will be obtained so long as the ^190Pt-^186Os system remains closed even if the ^187Re-^187Os sys -tem is contaminated by crustal materials.In addition ,for the coupled ^190Pt-^186Os and ^187Re-^187Os systematics,the mantle processes and the interactions between the mantle and the crust will be described by two ratios:^186Os/^188Os and ^187Os/^188Os .The coupled ^187Re-^187Os and ^190Pt-^186Os systematics will be a powerful tool in the investigation of the geodynamic history of the Earth because the ^187Re-^187Os system is sensitive to the interactions between the mantle and the crust,while the ^190Pt-^186Os system is a good tracer for mantle processes.     

川西北地区微细粒浸染型金矿的成矿过程

以川西北地区微细粒浸染型金矿的地质特征为基础，分析了这些金矿形成的物理化学条件，讨论了它们的物质来源，矿质活化、迁移和沉淀、聚集的全过程，提出了多源复合流体成矿的混合模式。     

Estimation of drag coefficient over the western desert sector of the Indian summer monsoon trough

In the estimation of momentum fluxes over land surfaces by the bulk aerodynamic method, no unique value of the drag coefficient (C _D) is found in the literature. The drag coefficient is generally estimated from special observations at different parts of the world. In this study an attempt is made to estimate drag coefficient over the western desert sector of India using data sets of Monsoon Trough Boundary Layer Experiment (MONTBLEX) during the summer monsoon season of 1990. For this purpose, the fast and slow response data sets obtained simultaneously from a 30 m high micro-meteorological tower at Jodhpur are used. All the observations used in this study are confined to a wind speed regime of 2.5–9.0 ms⁻¹. A comparison of momentum fluxes computed by eddy correlation (direct estimation) with profile and bulk aerodynamic (C _D = 3.9 × 10⁻³, Garratt, 1977) methods revealed that though the nature of variation of the fluxes by all these methods is almost similar, both the indirect methods give an under-estimated value of the fluxes. The drag coefficient is estimated as a function of wind speed and surface stability by a multiple regression approach. An average value of the estimated drag coefficient is found to be of the order of 5.43 × 10⁻³. The estimated value ofC _D is validated with a set of independent observations and found to be quite satisfactory. The recomputed momentum fluxes by bulk aerodynamic method using the estimated drag coefficient are in close agreement with the directly estimated fluxes.     

The value ofC efor the Arabian Sea during summer monsoon

We estimate, from the moisture budget the bulk aerodynamic coefficient for latent heat flux (C _e) during the monsoon season over the central Arabian Sea. The average value ofC _eunder active monsoon conditions was found to be 2.25 × 10⁻³ which is nearly 60% higher than those previously used.     

论异常地层压力在构造研究中的意义

本文将异常地层压力、压力系数及平衡深度等概念和构造研究联系起来,着重探讨压力系数在构造发育中的重要意义。     

工程地质类比分析的扩展及实现方法

本文借助于计算机技术,将传统的工程地质类比方法作了扩展,称之为工程地质类比系统。根据地质体复杂多样的特点,提出了不追求概括出一般知识和它的应用,而是从每个个体的特征类比入手,把成功的经验、失利的教训应用到研究对象中去的模型及实现方法,它的应用能避免其它评价方法对条件的过于简化而产生的偏差,还能有助于发掘出隐含在地质体内还不被认识的有用信息,并加以利用。初步应用表明,该方法具有良好的适用性和发展前景。     

新疆北部泥盆纪火山沉积岩系作用相类型、序列及其与板块构造的关系

新疆北部泥盆纪火山沉积岩系的作用相类型主要包括:爆发相、溢流相,火山碎屑、钙屑、陆屑风暴岩相,火山喷发海啸岩相,粗粒、中粒、细粒火山碎屑浊积岩相,同沉积、软变形震积岩相和砂质、粉砂泥质等积岩相。文章阐述了它们的特征和识别标志,并以东准噶尔纸房剖面和西准噶尔沙尔布尔提山剖面为例,讨论了作用相和环境相的时空结构及与板块构造的关系。并认为以作用相为主体的相分析是槽区、造山带和活动大陆边缘相分析的特色所在。