Optimum Sample Size to Detect Perturbation Effects: The Importance of Statistical Power Analysis – A Critique

Abstract. The current article describes statistical power analysis as an efficient strategy for the estimation of the optimum sample size. The principle aim is constructively to criticise and enrich the results presented by Mouillot et al. (1999) , who estimate the optimum sample size for evaluating possible perturbations. The authors did not make any reference to statistical power analysis, even though their objective clearly went beyond a simple stock evaluation to assess management strategies in a particular marine ecosystem. Surprisingly, they proposed (a priori) an ANOVA design to test a hypothesis considering both space and temporal scales. However, the authors did not cover important topics related with power analysis and the precautionary principle, both used into environment impact assessment programmes for marine ecosystems. Based on their results and on statistical power analysis, it is demonstrated that the variability (dispersion statistics), a key factor they used to estimate the sample size, is less relevant than the magnitude of perturbation (effect size). Therefore, a greater effort must be devoted to estimate the effect size of a particular phenomenon rather than a desired variability.     

长期非平稳荷载调谐质量减振阻尼器优化设计

研究外荷载为长期非平稳随机过程。考虑长期荷载的特性 ,采用 1个概率谱密度函数来反映长期非平稳随机荷载及其特征 ;概率谱密度函数是基于大量的一般谱密度函数的统计特性获得。以延长结构的抗疲劳使用寿命为目标函数 ,提出了调谐质量减振阻尼器的优化设计方法 ,这在实际工程中有着极为广阔的应用前景。本文旨在从理论上发展长期非平稳随机荷载作用下调谐质量减振阻尼器的优化设计方法 ;文中采用长期波浪实测数据 ,给出了 1个数值算例说明整个设计过程。     

煤矿区地质环境与地质灾害遥感集成监测系统的关键技术

面向“数字矿山”应用系统的需要,在分析煤矿区地质环境和地质灾害特点及其在遥感监测理论依据的基础上,提出了煤矿区地质环境与地质灾害遥感集成监测系统的技术思路和体系结构,强调各种监测技术手段、不同时空尺度、不同数据源和不同主题信息的集成,并针对这一集成系统实现与应用中的多目标遥感信息处理、环境传感器网络应用、遥感监测数据与专题分析模型的集成、数据质量控制等关键问题进行了探讨。     

Distribution Characteristics of Sulfur and the Main Harmful Trace Elements in China’s Coal

To promote the rational development and use of clean coal resources in China, data on the regional and age distribution of sulfur, arsenic and other harmful elements in Chinese coal was broadly collected, tested for content, and analyzed. Coal in northwestern China is characterized by low to extremely low levels of sulfur; the coal of the Taiyuan Formation in northern China mainly has high-sulfur content; that of the Shanxi Formation is mainly characterized by low sulfur coal; and the Late Permian coal in southern China has overall higher sulfur content; other regions have low sulfur coal. The average content of harmful trace elements in the bulk of China＇s coal is similar to the corresponding content in the coal of the North America and the rest of the world, whereas the content of various elements （Hg, Sb and Se） is different in magnitude to the corresponding percentage in the crust. The average content of the elements Cr, Se, Co, Be, U, Br in Late Permian coal in S China ranks first in the country whereas the average content of Hg and CI in the coals of Late Carboniferous to Early Permian age in N China are the highest. The average content of Mn in Early and Middle Jurassic coal is higher in NW China. The high content of harmful elements in some coal should cause particular concern both in the development and utilization of coal.     

浅议煤系地层区地热资源开发

开发地热资源是节约其它能源的一种方式,可以改变一个地区的投资环境,通过对山东滕州市煤系地层的区域地质情况进行勘察,并运用先进施工工艺及机械,开钻了鲁南地区第一眼煤系地层下的温泉井。并对之进行了经济效益分析。鲁南第一温泉井（滕温1号地热井）。     

准噶尔盆地中拐地区下侏罗统层序地层特征与聚煤控制因素分析

在分析前人对准噶尔盆地层序地层学研究成果的基础上,综合应用岩心、测井和地震资料,对准噶尔盆地西北缘中拐地区下侏罗统进行层序地层划分,总结了层序和体系域界面的识别标志,将下侏罗统划分为4个三级层序和7个体系域,同时叙述了各三级层序的结构特征。通过对层序内含煤岩系的发育特点分析,发现其主力煤层主要发育在JSQI和JSQ3湖侵体系域中,本文作者认为研究区内湖侵时期为有利的聚煤时期,聚煤作用主要受构造沉降、物源供给、气候和沉积环境等因素的控制。     

地下矿产开采对天然气管道工程的安全影响评价

西气东输天然气管道工程途经兖州市,穿越杨庄、杨村、兴隆庄等煤矿矿区,压覆煤层埋深变化较大。该文采用预测法对各煤矿在不同开采条件下分煤层对管道运营安全的危害程度进行了评价分析。通过计算表明,煤矿开采埋深越浅,煤层越厚,对管道危害越严重。兴隆庄煤矿3煤层、杨村煤矿煤16t、煤17开采对管道影响强烈,杨庄煤矿煤16t、煤17开采对管道影响中等,兴隆庄煤矿煤16t、煤17开采对管道运营影响小。     

印度洋岸边某电站工程的岩土工程问题初探

从海岸地带的地理地质环境入手,针对燃煤电站工程的特点,就工程建设中的几个主要岩土工程问题,分析探讨了其成因、特点和对工程建设的制约与影响程度．提出了解决这些问题的对策和建议。     

鄂尔多斯盆地黄陵、东胜地区地温场对比

鄂尔多斯盆地黄陵、东胜铀矿区分别处于盆地南部渭北隆起的北侧边缘和盆地北部伊盟隆起的东部,赋矿层位都是中侏罗统直罗组。盆地南、北铀矿区在现今地温场及古地温场都存在明显差异,南部现今大地热值及热演化程度明显高于北部。对于下侏罗统延安组和石炭—二叠系煤层,黄陵地区镜质体反射率都高于东胜地区。通过镜质体反射率资料得出同一埋深的一套地层经历的最大古地温和对应的古地温梯度也有南部高于北部的现象。由于早白垩世后期盆地普遍整体抬升使得现今地温相对古地温降低,南部黄陵地区抬升剥蚀量大于北部东胜地区,导致古、今地温差异也大于后者。盆地南部庆阳—富县一带局部构造热运动,导致南部异常地温场的形成,使得南部热演化程度高于北部。