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921.
Analysis and modelling of temperature anomalies from 25 selected deep wells in Alberta show that the differences between GST (ground surface temperature) warming for the northern Boreal Forest ecozone and the combined Prairie Grassland ecozone and Aspen Parkland transition region to the south occur during the latter half of this century. This corresponds with recent changes in surface albedo resulting from permanent land development in the northern areas and also to increases in natural forest fires in the past 20 years. Differences between GST and SAT (surface air temperature) warming are much higher in the Boreal Forest ecozone than in the Prairie Grassland ecozone and Aspen Parkland transition region. Various hypotheses which could account for the existing differences between the GST and SAT warming in the different ecozones of Alberta, and western Canada in general, are tested. Analysis of existing data on soil temperature, hydrological piezometric surfaces, snowfall and moisture patterns, and land clearing and forest fires, indicate that large areas of Alberta, characterised by anomalous GST warming, have experienced widespread changes to the surface landscape in this century. It is postulated that this has resulted in a lower surface albedo with a subsequent increase in the absorption of solar energy. Heat flow modelling shows that, after climatic SAT warming, permanent clearing of the land is the most effective and likely cause of the observed changes in the GST warming. The greater GST warming in the Boreal Forest ecozone in the latter half of this century is related to landscape change due to land development and increasing forest fire activity. It appears to account for a portion of the observed SAT warming in this region through a positive feedback loop with the overlying air. The anthropogenic effect on regional climatic warming through 20th century land clearing and landscape alteration requires further study. In future, more accurate quantification of these various forcings will be necessary in order to distinguish between, and to detect, the variety of natural and anthropogenic influences and on climate. 相似文献
922.
Monthly Extended Predicting Experiments with Nonlinear Regional Prediction.PartⅠ:Prediction of Zonal Mean Flow
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Systematic errors have recently been founded to be distinct in the zonal mean component forecasts, which account for a large portion of the total monthly-mean forecast errors. To overcome the difficulty of numerical model, the monthly pentad-riean nonlinear dynamic regional prediction models of the zonal mean geopotential height at 200, 300, 500, and 700 hPa based on a large number of historical data (NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data) were constituted by employing the local approximation of the phase space reconstruction theory and nonlinear spatio-temporal series prediction method. The 12-month forecast experiments of 1996 indicated that the results of the nonlinear model are better than those of the persistent, climatic prediction, and T42L9 model either over the high- and mid-latitude areas of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres or the tropical area. The root-mean-square of the monthly-mean height of T42L9 model was considerably decreased with a change of 30.4%, 26.6%, 82.6%, and 39.4%, respectively, over the high- and mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, over the high- and mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere, over the tropics and over the globe, and also the corresponding anomaly correlation coefficients over the four areas were respectively increased by 0.306-0.312, 0.304-0.429, 0.739-0.746, and 0.360-0.400 (averagely a relative change of 11.0% over the globe) by nonlinear correction after integration, implying that the forecasts given by nonlinear model include more useful information than those of T42L9 model. 相似文献
923.
924.
基于1995年、2005年和2015年3期Landsat影像数据,利用遥感和地理信息系统技术,分析全球不同气候带典型冰川补给型湖泊面积、数量及其对气候变化的响应。结果表明:①1995-2015年全球典型冰川补给型湖泊面积增加了2.32%,数量减少了2.26%,其中以小型湖泊(< 1 km2)和大型湖泊(>50 km2)面积变化最为剧烈,中型湖泊(1~50 km2)面积则相对稳定,1995-2005年冰川补给型湖泊面积与数量的变化速率相比2005-2015年较快。②1995-2015年热带、亚热带、温带冰川补给型湖泊面积与数量均在增加,其中以热带冰川补给型湖泊变化最为剧烈,其面积上升了20.62%,数量上升了25.32%,亚寒带与寒带冰川补给型湖泊面积与数量均减少,其中以寒带冰川补给型湖泊变化最为明显,其面积减少了11.3%,数量下降了18.97%。可为全球典型冰川补给型湖泊的变化及其影响因素的后续研究提供依据和参考。 相似文献
925.
926.
地表植被覆盖度遥感估算及其气候效应研究进展 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
赵健赟 《测绘与空间地理信息》2015,(8)
FVC是研究表植被覆盖的重要参数,其估算精度直接影响生态、环境变化研究结论的科学性。本文通过研究用于FVC计算的遥感数据,以及统计模型、混合像元分解、数据挖掘等估算方法和植被覆盖变化气候效应,指出大数据时代背景下融合海量、多平台、多时空、多尺度数据的FVC估算是必然趋势,其方法不仅具有高精度、高可靠性等特点,而且将向智能化、自动化的方向发展,植被覆盖变化气候效应研究将逐步定量化,地气作用过程和机理将成为其重要的研究方向。 相似文献
927.
Bing Liu He‐Ling Jin Liang‐Ying Sun Zhong Sun Qing‐He Niu Cai‐Xia Zhang 《Geological Journal》2016,51(3):325-337
This paper addresses the surface and Holocene aeolian deposits in the southeastern Mu Us Desert, N. China, systematically analysing the evolution of the geochemical characteristics of aeolian sand–palaeosol sequences and their environmental significance. Our results indicate that the geochemical components of the Holocene aeolian deposits and surface deposits had the similar material sources, sediment transport and deposition processes in the study region, which were dominated by SiO2, Al2O3, and Na2O. In the weathering process of the Jinjie (JJ) profile, the Na, K, and Si presented the slight leaching and migration in general, while the other elements were relatively accumulated. The Holocene aeolian deposits and surface deposits incurred weaker geochemical weathering under cold and dry conditions and were only weakly leached, which implies a relatively arid environment in the Holocene epoch and the modern era. The weathering degree was controlled by the regional temperature and precipitation, and was probably more sensitive to the precipitation changes. In the sedimentary profile, the geochemical parameters and migration of elements demonstrated that there have been several alternating warm–wet and cold–dry intervals in the Mu Us Desert in the Holocene epoch; there were relatively warm and wet conditions prior to 4.6 ka, and it has been cold and dry since then. Six millennial‐scale dry events were recorded during the Holocene, which were not only accordant with the history of palaeoclimatic changes in the different latitudes and archives of the Northern Hemisphere, but also correspond to the millennial‐scale variation of cosmic radiation and solar activity during that period. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
928.
用1961—2008年NOAA的月平均再分析资料和1980—2006年云南5个探空站的资料,采用大气可降水量和水汽通量公式计算分析大气可降水量和水汽通量,并用线性趋势分析其变化特征。结果表明:云南四季的可降水量北少南多,呈“u”型分布,夏季最大,冬季最小。对云南地区四季的水汽通量分析表明,四季的水汽净收入主要集中在对流层低层;地面-300hPa的水汽净收入在夏季最大、秋季次之,而冬季最小。云南经向的水汽输送和纬向的水汽输送呈反相关,近48年,云南四季水汽呈增加趋势,其中夏季增加最多,春季次之。 相似文献
929.
Climate change is one of the greatest threats to humanity and requires immediate action. Schuldt, Konrath, and Schwarz (2011) suggested that beliefs in environmental phenomena can be influenced by the terminology used to describe it: changing question wording from global warming to climate change resulted in a 6.3 percentage point increase in belief in environmental phenomena. This association was moderated by political self-identification, with Republicans being 16.2 percentage points more likely to believe in climate change than in global warming, with Democrats showing no difference. The potential for connotative meanings to shift over time and the sociopolitical changes since the original study, potential policy and environmental campaign implications, and an expansion of these findings to other countries, motivated an attempt to replicate this important finding. This pre-registered study repeated the original procedures in the United States of America and two other countries (United Kingdom and Australia; total N = 5,717). Although question wording no longer had a significant effect on beliefs in climate change/global warming, the association of political self-identification with beliefs in environmental phenomena replicated in all three countries, with Conservatives consistently believing less in climate change/global warming than Liberals. The potential impacts of temporal and methodological differences on the discrepancies between this study's and the original's findings are discussed. 相似文献
930.
Abstract The runoff regime of glacierized headwater catchments in the Alps is essentially characterized by snow and ice melt. High Alpine drainage basins influence distant downstream catchments of the Rhine River basin. In particular, during the summer months, low-flow conditions are probable with strongly reduced snow and ice melt under climate change conditions. This study attempts to quantify present and future contributions from snow and ice melt to summer runoff at different spatial scales. For the small Silvretta catchment (103 km2) in the Swiss Alps, with a glacierization of 7%, the HBV model and the glacio-hydrological model GERM are applied for calculating future runoff based on different regional climate scenarios. We evaluate the importance of snow and ice melt in the runoff regime. Comparison of the models indicates that the HBV model strongly overestimates the future contribution of glacier melt to runoff, as glaciers are considered as static components. Furthermore, we provide estimates of the current meltwater contribution of glaciers for several catchments downstream on the River Rhine during the month of August. Snow and ice melt processes have a significant direct impact on summer runoff, not only for high mountain catchments, but also for large transboundary basins. A future shift in the hydrological regime and the disappearance of glaciers might favour low-flow conditions during summer along the Rhine. Citation Junghans, N., Cullmann, J. & Huss, M. (2011) Evaluating the effect of snow and ice melt in an Alpine headwater catchment and further downstream in the River Rhine. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(6), 981–993. 相似文献