二氧化碳海洋倾废的研究进展

简要回顾了二氧化碳深海倾废设想提出的背景及其理论依据,阐述了实施二氧化碳深海倾废的可行性,着重讨论了CO2在深海的水合化过程以及最新的现场实验结果。分析了CO2海洋倾废对深海环境和生态系统的潜在影响。在与其他二氧化碳倾废方式进行比较的基础上,对今后的发展进行了展望。     

Regional regression models for hydro‐climate change impact assessment

Hydro‐climatic impacts in water resources systems are typically assessed by forcing a hydrologic model with outputs from general circulation models (GCMs) or regional climate models. The challenges of this approach include maintaining a consistent energy budget between climate and hydrologic models and also properly calibrating and verifying the hydrologic models. Subjective choices of loss, flow routing, snowmelt and evapotranspiration computation methods also increase watershed modelling uncertainty and thus complicate impact assessment. An alternative approach, particularly appealing for ungauged basins or locations where record lengths are short, is to predict selected streamflow quantiles directly from meteorological variable output from climate models using regional regression models that also include physical basin characteristics. In this study, regional regression models are developed for the western Great Lakes states using ordinary least squares and weighted least squares techniques applied to selected Great Lakes watersheds. Model inputs include readily available downscaled GCM outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3. The model results provide insights to potential model weaknesses, including comparatively low runoff predictions from continuous simulation models that estimate potential evapotranspiration using temperature proxy information and comparatively high runoff projections from regression models that do not include temperature as an explanatory variable. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Temporal and spatial pattern of thermokarst lake area changes at Yukon Flats,Alaska

To better understand the linkage between lake area change, permafrost conditions and intra‐annual and inter‐annual variability in climate, we explored the temporal and spatial patterns of lake area changes for a 422 382‐ha study area within Yukon Flats, Alaska using Landsat images of 17 dates between 1984 and 2009. Only closed basin lakes were used in this study. Among the 3529 lakes greater than 1 ha, closed basin lakes accounted for 65% by number and 50% by area. A multiple linear regression model was built to quantify the temporal change in total lake area with consideration of its intra‐annual and inter‐annual variability. The results showed that 80.7% of lake area variability was attributed to intra‐annual and inter‐annual variability in local water balance and mean temperature since snowmelt (interpreted as a proxy for seasonal thaw depth). Another 14.3% was associated with long‐term change. Among 2280 lakes, 350 lakes shrank, and 103 lakes expanded. The lakes with similar change trends formed distinct clusters, so did the lakes with similar short term intra‐annual and inter‐annual variability. By analysing potential factors driving lake area changes including evaporation, precipitation, indicators for regional permafrost change, and flooding, we found that ice‐jam flooding events were the most likely explanation for the observed temporal pattern. In addition to changes in the frequency of ice jam flooding events, the observed changes of individual lakes may be influenced by local variability in permafrost distributions and/or degradation. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Strengthening of the Walker circulation under globalwarming in an aqua-planet general circulation model simulation

Most climate models project a weakening of the Walker circulation under global warming scenarios. It is argued, based on a global averaged moisture budget, that this weakening can be attributed to a slower rate of rainfall increase compared to that of moisture increase, which leads to a decrease in ascending motion. Through an idealized aqua-planet simulation in which a zonal wavenumber-1 SST distribution is prescribed along the equator, we find that the Walker circulation is strengthened under a uniform 2-K SST warming, even though the global mean rainfall–moisture relationship remains the same. Further diagnosis shows that the ascending branch of the Walker cell is enhanced in the upper troposphere but weakened in the lower troposphere. As a result, a "double-cell" circulation change pattern with a clockwise(anti-clockwise) circulation anomaly in the upper(lower) troposphere forms, and the upper tropospheric circulation change dominates. The mechanism for the formation of the "double cell" circulation pattern is attributed to a larger(smaller) rate of increase of diabatic heating than static stability in the upper(lower) troposphere. The result indicates that the future change of the Walker circulation cannot simply be interpreted based on a global mean moisture budget argument.     

青藏高原第四纪冰川作用及其气候响应的讨论

关于青藏高原和周边山地第四纪冰川作用及其气候响应存在不同观点.一些学者认为老冰期主要发生在氧同位素奇数阶段;MIS 3和早全新世存在规模较大的冰川前进;南亚季风对青藏高原冰川作用起主导作用(水汽驱动).另一些学者则认为青藏高原冰川作用主要对应于氧同位素偶数阶段;冰川发育是构造隆升-冰期气候耦合的产物(低温驱动).本文基于现有的陆地生成宇宙核素(TCN)和光释光(OSL)等年代结果总结了不同时间尺度和不同类型冰川波动与气候变化历史的对比,并对几个关键的争议问题做了讨论.结果表明,在不同类型冰川区和不同时间尺度下,冰川作用在湿润期和低温期都有可能发生,但总体上主要与低温相对应.青藏高原冰川对气温的响应似乎更为敏感.MIS 3冰进规模较大可能是降水较多结合冷期(或冷事件)降温所致,显示了印度季风降水和气温波动对高原冰川的共同作用.早全新世冰进也与印度季风和北半球冷事件关系密切.目前的测年数据还没有推翻“冰期发生在氧同位素偶数阶段”这种传统认识.当前急需更多精确的数字定年工作,以不断更新对青藏高原冰期时代及其气候响应机制的了解.     

基于遥感监测的秦岭南北积雪日数时空变化及影响因素

以海拔依赖型变暖为理论基础,研究山地积雪对气候变暖的响应机制,是当前气候变化研究的热点问题。基于2000—2019年MODIS积雪物候数据,对秦岭南北积雪日数时空变化进行分析,探讨了秋冬两季厄尔尼诺指数（NINO）、青藏高原气压对积雪异常的影响。结果表明：(1) 2013年后秦岭南北气候由“变暖停滞”转为“增温回升”,积雪日数随之呈现转折下降,积雪日数≥10 d栅格占比由前期的35.1%下降为8.6%。(2)在垂直地带规律上,秦岭山地以1950～2000 m为临界点,大巴山区以1600～1650 m为临界点,低海拔地区积雪日数随海拔增加速率要低于高海拔地区。2100～3150 m海拔带是积雪日数的垂直变化的关键带;(3)在影响因素上,NINO C区、NINO Z区秋冬海温和青藏高原冬季高压,是秦岭山地、汉江谷地和大巴山区积雪异常的有效指示信号。当赤道太平洋中部秋冬海温偏低,且青藏高原冬季高压偏低时,上述3个子区积雪日数异常偏多。(4)在环流机制方面,相对于积雪日数偏少年,秦岭南北积雪日数偏多年1—2月0℃等温线位置偏南,低温环境为增加冰雪物质积累、延缓冰雪消融提供了气温条件;1月区域存...     

Climate transformation to warm-humid and its effect on river runoff in the source region of the Yellow River

The change characteristics and trends of the regional climate in the source region of the Yellow River, and the response of runoff to climate change, are analyzed based on observational data of air temperature, precipitation, and runoff at 10 main hydrological and weather stations in the region. Our results show that a strong signal of climate shift from warm-dry to warm-humid in the western parts of northwestern China （Xinjiang） and the western Hexi Corridor of Gansu Province occurred in the late 1980s, and a same signal of climate change occurred in the mid-2000s in the source region of the Yellow River located in the eastern part of northwestern China. This climate changeover has led to a rapid increase in rainfall and stream runoff in the latter region. In most of the years since 2004 the average annual precipitation in the source region of the Yellow River has been greater than the long-term average annual value, and after 2007 the runoff measured at all of the hydrologic sections on the main channel of the Yellow River in the source region has also consistently exceeded the long-term average annual because of rainfall increase. It is difficult to determine the prospects of future climate change until additional observations and research are conducted on the rate and temporal and spatial extents of climate change in the region. Nevertheless, we predict that the climate shift from warm-dry to warm-humid in the source region of the Yellow River is very likely to be in the decadal time scale, which means a warming and rainy climate in the source region of the Yellow River will continue in the coming decades.     

The Impact of Global Warming on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Possible Mechanism简

The response of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO） to global warming according to the Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model （FOAM） and global warming comparison experiments of 11 IPCC AR4 models is investigated. The results show that North Pacific ocean decadal variability, its dominant mode （i.e., PDO）, and atmospheric decadal variability, have become weaker under global warming, but with PDO shifting to a higher frequency. The SST decadal variability reduction maximum is shown to be in the subpolar North Pacific Ocean and western North Pacific （PDO center）. The atmospheric decadal variability reduction maximum is over the PDO center. It was also found that oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves play a key role in PDO dynamics, especially those in the subpolar ocean. As the frequency of ocean buoyancy increases under a warmer climate, oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves become faster, and the increase in their speed ratio in the high latitudes is much larger than in the low latitudes. The faster baroclinic Rossby waves can cause the PDO to shift to a higher frequency, and North Pacific decadal variability and PDO to become weaker.     

东海海表温度持续增温的机制

本文依据第5次耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)中的8个模式历史模拟与典型浓度(RCP4.5)试验的结果,探讨了1980—1999年东海海表温度(SST)持续增加的原因,预估了未来东海SST对温室气体持续增加的响应。研究表明:这8个模式都能模拟东海在1980—1999年有显著的SST持续增暖现象,集合平均后这20年增暖的速率为2.25℃/100a。而在RCP4.5试验中,8个模式集合平均后在2006—2055年这50年期间东海SST增暖的速率为2.32℃/100a。在历史模拟中,在1980—1999年期间东海SST持续增长的主要原因是海洋平流热输送加强,而大气调整导致的海面热通量影响比海洋平流热输送的影响小一个量级。在单纯温室气体增加的RCP4.5试验中,除了海洋平流热输送外,由于大气调整导致海面潜热、感热释放减少也是SST持续升温的主要原因之一,其贡献可以与海洋平流热输送加强同量级。对比分析模式对过去的模拟和未来单一强迫的情景试验结果,可以初步确定,在1980—1999年期间由于太平洋年代际变化导致的东海黑潮平流热输送增加是该阶段东海SST持续增加的主要机制。     

The hiatus and accelerated warming decades in CMIP5 simulations

Observed hiatus or accelerated warming phenomena are compared with numerical simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） archives,and the associated physical mechanisms are explored based on the CMIP5 models.Decadal trends in total ocean heat content （OHC） are strongly constrained by net top-of-atmosphere （TOA） radiation.During hiatus decades,most CMIP5 models exhibit a significant decrease in the SST and upper OHC and a significant increase of heat penetrating into the subsurface or deep ocean,opposite to the accelerated warming decades.The shallow meridional overturning of the Pacific subtropical cell experiences a significant strengthening （slowdown） for the hiatus （accelerated warming） decades associated with the strengthened （weakened） trade winds over the tropical Pacific.Both surface heating and ocean dynamics contribute to the decadal changes in SST over the Indian Ocean,and the Indonesian Throughflow has a close relationship with the changes of subsurface temperature in the Indian Ocean.The Atlantic Meridional Overturing Circulation （Antarctic Bottom Water） tends to weaken （strengthen） during hiatus decades,opposite to the accelerated warming decades.In short,the results highlight the important roles of air-sea interactions and ocean circulations for modulation of surface and subsurface temperature.