Impact of climate and hydrology on juvenile fish recruitment towards estuarine nursery grounds in the context of climate change

Larvae of various coastal fish undergo immigration from spawning grounds towards estuarine nurseries. Several environmental factors can have an important impact on survival at this stage making it crucial for recruitment. Generalized linear models were applied in order to investigate the relation between river drainage, sea surface temperature (SST), NAO index and the North-South wind component intensity, over the two months prior to the estuarine colonization peak, and the densities of Platichthys flesus, Dicentrarchus labrax, Diplodus vulgaris and Diplodus bellottii in the nursery grounds based on a discontinuous historical dataset (from 1978 to 2006), for the Tagus estuary. The relation between SST over the 12 months prior to the estuarine colonization peak and fish densities in the nurseries was also investigated, as it integrates the periods of spawning stock maturation, spawning and larval immigration. While SST over the prior 12 months was negatively correlated with the abundance of P. flesus, it was positively correlated with the abundance of D. bellottii. Abundance of D. vulgaris was positively correlated with SST in the two months prior to the estuarine colonization peak, while the abundance of D. labrax was positively correlated with river drainage. The relations between SST and the abundance of P. flesus, a cold-water species with declining densities, and the subtropical species D. bellottii and D. vulgaris, which are increasing in abundance, are indicative of species abundance alterations related to climate warming. Dicentrarchus labrax will probably also be affected by climate change because of lowered precipitation and consequently river drainage.     

雷州半岛北部晚更新世晚期气候环境变化的泥炭沉积记录

对雷州半岛北部湛江市郊屋山村和遂溪县下录村两个泥炭剖面的沉积地层和多种气候指标进行了分析,发现两个剖面呈现大致相同的变化特征,表明区域气候是影响此地区泥炭发育的重要因素。在50~30 cal.kaBP期间,此地区气候表现出显著的相对温暖湿润特征,且期间存在多次短尺度的波动,其中千年尺度的Heinrich事件H3—H5在本文中有很好的揭示,其他的一些气候快速变化事件与南京葫芦洞石笋和格陵兰冰心氧同位素记录也有较好的吻合。30 cal.kaBP之后,气候转向相对冷干。气候指标的红色噪声谱分析揭示出约1440 a全剖面最为显著的周期,与大洋热盐环流推动的约1500 a的D-O循环周期相似。雷州半岛北部地区晚更新世晚期中气候变化与高纬度地区冰量以及东亚季风环流的变化密切相关。     

大别山区茶叶气候生产潜力评估

基于大别山区35个气象观测站1971—2020年逐日气象资料、DEM数据,采用气候统计分析、逐步订正法和趋势面插值等方法,对茶叶光合生产潜力（YQ）、光温生产潜力（YT）和气候生产潜力（YW）时空变化特征、气候资源贡献率及其对气候变化的响应进行了分析。结果表明：大别山区茶叶YQ和YW呈下降趋势,降幅分别为0.58和0.05 t〖DK〗·hm-2〖DK〗·(10a)-1,YT呈增加趋势,增幅为0.36 t〖DK〗·hm-2〖DK〗·(10a)-1;空间分布上,YQ随纬度的增加而增加,YT随纬度和海拔的增加而减少,YW随纬度的增加而减少、随海拔的增加而增加;太阳辐射、温度和降水对YW的贡献率分别为26%、48%、26%,温度的促进作用与太阳辐射和降水的抑制作用相互抵消,致使YW总体呈动态平衡趋势;气候变化背景下,大别山区北部地区较南部地区YQ下降趋势更加明显,南部地区较北部地区YT增加趋势更加明显,YW在低海拔地区呈增加趋势而在高海拔地区呈下降趋势。研究结果可为大别山区茶叶产业充分利用气候资源、高效趋利避害、合理优化产业布局提供科学依据。     

青岛近海夏季海风特征及其预报方法研究

采用2003～2006年7～9月青岛以及沿海地区自动站资料、探空资料对青岛近海海风进行了统计分析.平均而言,青岛近海7～8月海风发生频率为30%～35%,9月海风发生频率为25%;海风开始时间平均为10:00～12:00,结束时间可以持续到18:00～19:00;海风在垂直方向上厚度为500～600 m左右.青岛近海海风的发生与否取决于青岛上空低层925 hPa风速大小、低层大气稳定度、海陆温差以及海平面气压差四方面的综合效应.通常,925 hPa风速达到8 m/s,系统风较强时不利于海风建立;当低层大气不稳定时,有利于触发海风环流的建立;海陆温差达到4 ℃以上时,青岛近海易出现海风;此外,当地转风为离岸风时,海阳站或日照站与青岛本站08:00时海平面气压差>1 hPa时,当日一般不会出现海风.综合以上预报因子及其指标,通过建立逻辑回归模型,初步实现了夏季青岛近海海风能否发生的客观预报,并在2007年举行的国际帆船赛期间得到了应用.     

Characteristics of extreme temperature event and its response to regional warming in Northwest China in past 45 years

Using the daily maximum and minimum temperature dataset from 128 stations from 1960 to 2004 in Northwest China, daily extreme high temperature （EHT） and extreme low temperature （ELT） thresholds were determined by centesimal method for different stations at first, then yearly EHT and ELT events were counted up in different stations, and the characteristics of their spatio-temporal distribution were diagnosed at last. The study drew following conclusions： 1） The consistent anomaly distribution characteristic was the most important mode of the EHT and ELT events in Northwest China. 2） The spatial distribution of the EHT and ELT events can be divided into five sub-regions, namely, the north of Qinghai and west of Gansu, the north of Xinjiang, the south of Xinjiang, the east of Northwest China and the south of Qinghai. 3） The EHT events showed remarkable increasing trend in all of five sub-regions, but only in the north of Qinghai and west of Gansu area, sudden change phenomenon occurred; the ELT events showed decreasing trend in all of five sub-regions, and sudden change phenomenon occurred in Northwest China except for south of Qinghai. 4） In all of five sub-regions the EHT events showed remarkable 12-14yr period oscillation, and the ELT event showed significant 13-15yr and 7-8yr period oscillation. 5） The EHT and ELT events displayed remarkable positive and negative responses to regional warming of Northwest China respectively.     

Isotopic and chemical analyses of a temperate firn core from a Chinese alpine glacier and its regional climatic significance

Mt. Yulong is the southernmost currently glacier-covered area in Eurasia, including China. There are 19 sub-tropical temperate glaciers on the mountain, controlled by the south-western monsoon climate. In the summer of 1999, a firn core, 10. 10 m long, extending down to glacier ice, was recovered in the accumulation area of the largest glacier, Baishui No. 1. Periodic variations of climatic signals above 7. 8 m depth were apparent, and net accumulation of four years was identified by the annual oscillations of isotopic and ionic composition. The boundaries of annual accumulation were confirmed by higher values of electrical conductivity and pH, and by dirty refreezing ice layers at the levels of summer surfaces. Calculated mean annual net accumulation from 1994/1995 to 1997/1998 was about 900 mm water equivalent. The amplitude of isotopic variations in the profile decreased with increasing depth, and isotopic homogenization occurred below 7. 8 m as a result of meltwater percolation. Variations of δ18O above 7. 8 m showed an approximate correlation with the winter climatic trend at Li Jiang Station, 25 km away. Concentrations of Ca2+ and Mg2+ were much higher than those of Na+ and K+ , indicating that the air masses for precipitation were mainly from a continental source, and that the core material accumulated during the winter period. The close correspondence of C1- and Na+ indicated their common origin. Very low concentrations of SO2-4 and NO3- suggest that pollution caused by human activities is quite low in the area. The mean annual net accumulation in the core and the estimated ablation indicate that the average annual precipitation above the glacier's equilibrium line is 2400 - 3150 mm, but this needs to be confirmed by long term observation of mass balance.     

Impacts of climate change on commercial fish stocks in Norwegian waters

The Norwegian fishing areas extend over various marine ecosystems that will respond differently to climate change. In the North Sea the productivity of the boreal fish species are likely to decrease under global warming and new warm-water species are expected to become more abundant. In the arctic marine ecosystem of the Barents Sea the fish productivity is expected to increase and their distributions expand northward and eastward under global warming increasing the importance of the Russian as well as the Norwegian sectors of the Barents. In the past, decadal-scale climate variations have been shown to strongly influence productivity and distributions of fish stocks. The importance of such shorter-term variations are expected to continue also under global warming. Under global warming the optimum temperature for fish farming along the Norwegian coast will be displaced northwards from the northern part of West Norway towards the Helgeland coast.     

CCSM3对太平洋年代际振荡的敏感性试验

利用NCAR的CCSM3模式进行控制试验和1870-1999年的130 a模拟试验(敏感性试验),与相应的再分析资料进行对比,分析了太平洋海区的海温变化趋势和北太平洋年代际变率的时空结构,并且讨论了CO2对于北太平洋年代际变率的影响.结果表明:CCSM3模式能够模拟出北太平洋年代际变率的主要特征,其空间分布类似于典型的...     

黄海西部2005—2007年海雾演变的气候特征研究

海雾对沿海地区的交通运输、工农业生产等影响很大,需要开展深入研究,以探索其生消演变规律。本文选择黄海西部的成山头、青岛、海阳、日照等4个测站为代表性测站,分析了2005—2007年海雾发生期间的位势高度、海温、海表面风场、相对湿度、稳定度及散度等要素场特征,着重探讨了海雾演变的气候特征。研究结果表明:500 hPa高空槽前位于黄海上空时有利于成雾;海温异常低的年份雾日较多;风向、散度和低层的层结稳定度是影响黄海海雾的主要因素;地理位置也是影响黄海海雾变化的重要因子;黄海海雾的水平分布具有南北空间不一致的特点。     

黄、渤海海冰长期变化特征分析

选取渤海、黄海北部冰情等级、冰面积资料和大气环流逐月资料,采用小波分析和交叉小波分析方法,研究海冰长期变化特征及其气候成因。结果发现黄、渤海海冰具有多尺度变化特征,存在低频变化、高频变化和无明显周期的演变过程。西太平洋副高、亚洲极涡以及纬向环流是影响海冰生成与变化的直接因素。黄、渤海海冰还与印度洋副高、北美副高,以及大西洋副高存在显著年代际相关关系。