Who remembers a hot summer or a cold winter? The asymmetric effect of beliefs about global warming on perceptions of local climate conditions in the U.S.

This paper explores the phenomenon of local climate perception and the extent to which public perceptions match climate conditions as recorded in instrumental climate data. We further examine whether perceptions of changes in local climates are influenced by prior beliefs about global warming, through the process of motivated reasoning. Using national survey data collected in the United States in 2011, we find that subjective experiences of seasonal average temperature and precipitation during the previous winter and summer were related to recorded conditions during each season. Beliefs about global warming also had significant effects on subjective experiences with above-normal temperatures, particularly among those who believed that global warming is not happening. When asked about the summer of 2010, those who believed that global warming is not happening were significantly less likely to report that they had experienced a warmer-than-normal summer, even when controlling for demographics and local climate conditions. These results suggest that the subjective experience of local climate change is dependent not only on external climate conditions, but also on individual beliefs, with perceptions apparently biased by prior beliefs about global warming.     

Changes in the lower limit of mountain permafrost between 1973 and 2004 in the Khumbu Himal, the Nepal Himalayas

Because the Khumbu Himal of the Nepal Himalayas lacks long-term climate records from weather stations, mountain permafrost degradation serves as an important indicator of climate warming. In 1973, the permafrost lower limit was estimated to be 5200–5300 m above sea level (ASL) on southern-aspect slopes in this region. Using ground-temperature measurements, we examined the mountain permafrost lower limit on slopes with the same aspect in 2004. The results indicate that the permafrost lower limit was 5400–5500 m ASL in 2004. The permafrost lower limit was estimated to be 5400 to 5500 m on slopes with a southern aspect in the Khumbu Himal in 1991 using seismic reflection soundings. Thus, it is possible that the permafrost lower limit has risen 100–300 m between 1973 and 1991, followed by a stable limit of 5400 to 5500 m over the last decade. An increase in mean annual air temperature of approximately 0.2 to 0.4 °C from the 1970s to the 1990s has indicated a rise in the permafrost lower limit of 40 to 80 m at the Tibetan Plateau. The rise in the mountain permafrost lower limit in the Khumbu Himal exceeds that of the Tibetan Plateau, suggesting the possibility of greater climate warming in the Khumbu Himal.     

Mid–late Holocene monsoon climate retrieved from seasonal Sr/Ca and δO records of Porites lutea corals at Leizhou Peninsula, northern coast of South China Sea

South China Sea (SCS) is a major moisture source region, providing summer monsoon rainfall throughout Mainland China, which accounts for more than 80% total precipitation in the region. We report seasonal to monthly resolution Sr/Ca and δ¹⁸O data for five Holocene and one modern Porites corals, each covering a growth history of 9–13 years. The results reveal a general decreasing trend in sea surface temperature (SST) in the SCS from 6800 to 1500 years ago, despite shorter climatic cycles. Compared with the mean Sr/Ca–SST in the 1990s (24.8 °C), 10-year mean Sr/Ca–SSTs were 0.9–0.5 °C higher between 6.8 and 5.0 thousand years before present (ky BP), dropped to the present level by 2.5 ky BP, and reached a low of 22.6 °C (2.2 °C lower) by 1.5 ky BP. The summer Sr/Ca–SST maxima, which are more reliable due to faster summer-time growth rates and higher sampling resolution, follow the same trend, i.e. being 1–2 °C higher between 6.8 and 5.0 ky BP, dropping to the present level by 2.5 ky BP, and reaching a low of 28.7 °C (0.7 °C lower) by 1.5 ky BP. Such a decline in SST is accompanied by a similar decrease in the amount of monsoon moisture transported out of South China Sea, resulting in a general decrease in the seawater δ¹⁸O values, reflected by offsets of mean δ¹⁸O relative to that in the 1990s. This observation is consistent with general weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon since early Holocene, in response to a continuous decline in solar radiation, which was also found in pollen, lake-level and loess/paleosol records throughout Mainland China. The climatic conditions 2.5 and 1.5 ky ago were also recorded in Chinese history. In contrast with the general cooling trend of the monsoon climate in East Asia, SST increased dramatically in recent time, with that in the 1990s being 2.2 °C warmer than that 1.5 ky ago. This clearly indicates that the increase in the concentration of anthropogenic greenhouse gases played a dominant role in recent global warming, which reversed the natural climatic trend in East Asian monsoon regime.     

Scenarios of land cover in China

A method for surface modeling of land cover change (SMLC) is developed on the basis of establishing transition probability matrixes between land cover types and HLZ types. SMLC is used to simulate land cover scenarios of China for the years 2039, 2069 and 2099, for which HLZ scenarios are first simulated in terms of HadCM3 climatic scenarios that are downscaled in zonal model of spatial climate change in China. This paper also analyzes spatial distribution of land cover types, area change and mean center shift of each land cover type, ecotope diversity, and patch connectivity under the land cover scenarios. The results show that cultivated land would decrease and woodland would expand greatly with climatic change, which coincides with consequences expected by implementation of Grain-for-Green policy. Nival area would shrink, and desertification area would expand at a comparatively slow rate in future 100 years. Climate change would generally cause less ecotope diversity and more patch connectivity. Ecosystems in China would have a pattern of beneficial cycle after efficient ecological conservation and restoration. However, if human activities would exceed regulation capacity of ecosystems themselves, the ecosystems in China might deteriorate more seriously.     

中国对流性天气现象观测资料质量控制及其年、季节特征分析

基于2 474个国家级气象台站1954-2015年观测的对流性天气现象（包括雷暴、闪电、冰雹、大风）数据,进行了有效的质量控制,并采用气候统计学方法,研究了中国对流性天气的时空变化特征和气候趋势。结果表明：全国平均的雷暴、闪电、冰雹、大风发生频率分别为11.0%、6.8%、0.33%和3.8%,且季节变化明显。我国雷暴、闪电日数自北向南基本呈逐渐增多的格局。在内蒙古地区、青藏高原、沿海地区等三个平均风速较大的地区,发生大风天气现象的日数也相应较多。对流性天气现象年发生日数呈下降趋势。分别有68.3%、67.5%、0.8%、41.6%台站雷暴、闪电、冰雹、大风日数年变化存在显著减少趋势。     

Temperature and precipitation changes in Extensive Hexi Region,China, 1960–2011

Global climate change has been evident in many places worldwide. This study provides a better understanding of the variability and changes in frequency, intensity, and duration of temperature, precipitation, and climate extremes in the Extensive Hexi Region, based on meteorological data from 26 stations. The analysis of average, maximum, and minimum temperatures revealed that statistically significant warming occurred from 1960 to 2011. All temperature extremes displayed trends consistent with warming, with the exception of coldest-night temperature(TNn) and coldest-day temperature(TXn), which were particularly evident in high-altitude areas and at night. Amount of precipitation and number of rainy days slowly increased with no significant regional trends, mainly occurring in the Qilian Mountains and Hexi Corridor. The significance of changes in precipitation extremes during 1960–2011 was high, but the regional trends of maximum 5-day precipitation(RX5day), the average precipitation on wet days(SDII), and consecutive wet days(CWD) were not significant. The variations in the studied parameters indicate an increase in both the extremity and strength of precipitation events, particularly in higher-altitude regions. Furthermore, the contribution from very wet precipitation(R95) and extremely wet precipitation(R99) to total precipitation also increased between 1960 and 2011. The assessment of these changes in temperature and precipitation may help in developing better management practices for water resources. Future studies in the region should focus on the impact of these changes on runoffs and glaciers.     

全球变暖和核电站温排水对大亚湾滨珊瑚钙化的影响

全球变暖引起的珊瑚白化和珊瑚钙化能力减弱,对全球珊瑚礁生态系统构成了严重威胁.在这样的背景下,相对高纬度海域石珊瑚(Scleractinia)群落被认为是珊瑚物种延续的最后避难所.通过分析大亚湾海域持续生长46年(1962-2007年)的滨珊瑚Porites骨骼参数(生长率、密度和钙化率),研究相对高纬度海域石珊瑚钙化对全球变暖以及人为热排放的响应模式.结果显示,滨珊瑚平均生长率、密度和钙化率分别为0.97cm·a-1(0.41-1.32cm·a-1)、1.45g·cm-3(1.17-1.65g·cm-3)和1.40g·(cm2·a)-1[0.59-1.93g·(cm2·a)-1].海表温度(SST)是该海域石珊瑚钙化的主导控制因素.1962-1993年,全球变暖、SST上升对大亚湾滨珊瑚生长有缓解冬季低温胁迫、促进骨骼钙化的作用.然而,随着SST持续上升以及大亚湾核电站的运行,全球变暖与核电站温排水对滨珊瑚骨骼形成高密度带造成抑制作用,导致自1993年以后滨珊瑚骨骼生长率和钙化率呈下降趋势,并出现1997-2001年和2006年的低谷.因此,全球变暖,至少是初期,对相对高纬度海域石珊瑚钙化乃至珊瑚礁发育是有促进作用的.但随着SST持续上升,加上ENSO等极端高温事件以及人类活动的影响,可能在未来会出现相对高纬度海域的大面积石珊瑚白化.     

CLIMATIC CHARACTERISTICS OF NET RADIATION IN THE EARTH-ATMOSPHERE SYSTEM OVER CHINA*

Investigated are effects of the total cloudiness and other factors on earth-atmosphere net radiation(EANR) and analyzed is its relation to other components and ground surface net radiation in the context of ERBE and ISCCP.Evidence suggests that planetary scale albedo and earth-atmosphere short wave absorption radiation have maximum effect on the net radiation under study,with the influence of cloud and latitude displayed predominantly through the two factors;OLR has relatively weak effect;the earth-atmosphere net radiation is well correlated with surface net radiation.Analysis is also performed of the geographic distribution of the earth-atmosphere net radiation throughout China,and the annual curve of the net radiation on a local basis is marked by high(low) value in summer(winter) with the impact of factors.including total cloudiness responsible largely for the shift of the months with maximum.     

一种干湿气候指数的计算方法

在科塔哥月干燥指数的基础，采纳了柯本在夏季多雨地区，草原气候（干）与林木气候（湿）界限的地区标准，结合广东地区气候特征，通过实际气候资料检验和修正，提出了一种适用于广东及其邻近地区的干湿气候指数计算公式，经过用广东省各地实际资料作年内的和冬，夏半年的，以及任意年，月的干湿指数的实际计算和分析，发现该指数能较清楚地反映了广东干湿气候变化特征，这对于农业生产和经济建设服务具有实际的意义。     

甘肃中部雷暴天气变化的气候特征分析

利用1958-2005年白银地区4测站观测资料,采用线性趋势估计、子波分析等数理统计方法,对白银地区雷暴初、终日及雷暴出现日数气候变化特征进行分析。结果表明:雷暴初日北部平原呈推迟的趋势(2.7 d/10 a),南部山区在其平均期(4月20日)附近上下摆动。雷暴终日北部平原呈提前趋势(-2.6 d/10 a),南部山区呈抛物线变化趋势,先升后降;雷暴初日变化北部平原较南部山区稳定,雷暴终日变化南部山区较北部平原区稳定,雷暴初日较终日稳定;雷暴初、终日北部平原对应的候平均气温阈值分别为9℃、11℃,南部山区对应的候平均气温阈值皆为6℃;雷暴日数“南多北少,”20世纪80年代中期以前8-10 a的周期显著,其总趋势是减少的。