长江上游夏季径流量年际增量预测模型及检验

基于1980-2020年长江上游夏季径流量、降水和气温等资料,采用小波分析、最优子集回归等方法,分析径流量、降水量和气温的变化关系,探讨引发径流量变化的前兆气候异常信号,并构建径流量年际增量预测模型.结果 表明:径流量多寡直接取决于流域总降水量,两者表现出显著的准两年周期振荡特征,年际增量之间的相关系数(TCC)为0....     

Possible contribution of Arctic sea ice decline to intense warming over Siberia in June

西伯利亚地区异常的升温可能会给生态系统带来灾难性的影响.本文从气候角度分析西伯利亚地区初夏升温的特征以及北极海冰减小的可能贡献.观测和再分析资料表明,1979-2020年间西伯利亚地区6月地表气温有很强的升温趋势(0.9℃/10年),明显高于同纬度地区平均的升温趋势(0.46℃/10年).升温从地表延伸至300hPa左...     

Glacier Changes at Svartisen,Northern Norway,during the Last 125 Years:Influence of Climate and Other Factors

The two ice caps of Svartisen,at the latitude of the Arctic Circle in Norway,supply 60 glaciers,ranging in size from >50 to <1 km2.Until the last two decades of the 19th century,the glaciers remained close to their maximum recent(Little Ice Age) size.In response to the prevailing 20th century climate,they have become smaller,but the changes have varied between glaciers.Climatic factors have not been the sole control of the variations.The response times of small,steep glaciers are shorter than those of the l...     

Observed Glaciohydrological Changes in China's Typical Monsoonal Temperate Glacier Region since 1980s

Under the background of significant climate warming since the 1980s,the glaciers in China's monsoonal temperate glacier region respond to the warming intensely.Based on the glaciohy-drological observations at some typical glaciers from Mts.Yulong(玉龙) and Gongga(贡嘎) of Heng-duan(横断) Mountains Range in the southeastern Tibetan plateau,the glaciohydrological changes in the temperate glacier region since the 1980s were investigated.First,the glacier terminus exhibited an accelerating retreat.Second,as the glaci...     

青藏高原区域气候变化及其差异性研究

利用1961—2007年青藏高原66个气象台站气温和降水量资料,通过典型气候分区,系统研究了近47年来青藏高原气温、降水量等气候因子时空演变规律,揭示了青藏高原不同区域气候变化的差异性。研究表明:近47年来,青藏高原的气候呈现出显著增暖趋势,年平均气温以0.37℃/10a的速率上升,气候变暖在夜间要较日间明显。冬季较其他季节明显,2月气温由冷向暖的转变最为显著,8月最不显著,且在某些区域有变冷迹象;高原边缘地区气候变暖要明显于高原腹地,青海北部区特别是柴达木盆地是青藏高原气候变化的敏感区。降水量总体表现出增多态势,气候倾向率达9.1mm/10a,但区域性差异较为明显,藏东南川西区是青藏高原降水量增多最显著的地区;12月至次年5月即冬春季整个青藏高原降水量随着气候变暖而增多,7月和9月黄河上游区1987年后干旱化趋势明显。     

Impact of climate change on runoff from a mid‐latitude mountainous catchment in central Japan

Hydrologic balance in high‐altitude, mid‐latitude mountain areas is important in terms of the water resources available to associated lowlands. This study examined how current and historical shifts in precipitation (P) patterns and concurrent increases in temperature (T) affected runoff (Q) and other hydrologic components in a mid‐latitude mountain catchment of central Japan, using a combination of long‐term data and a simplified hydrologic model, along with their stochastic treatment. The availability of intensive meteorological and hydrological data from the period 1997–2001 allowed the derivation of key relationships for the current climate that tie the forcing term to the parameters or state variables. By using the data recorded in the period 1965–2001, the force for driving the historical simulation was generated. Based on this model and historical shifts in P and T, the probability density functions of Q (pdf(Q)) was computed. A main novelty in this study is that such a stochastic representation, which is useful for considering the influence of projected shifts in environmental factors on the hydrologic budget, was provided. Despite the large increase in the rate of T in winter and spring, pdf(Q) in spring and summer varied appreciably during the time studied mainly because of an increase in snowmelt. An interannual change in whole‐year Q was robust to shifts in T because while Q in spring increased, in summer it decreased, implying a crucial effect of global warming on mountain hydrologic regimes is change in the timing of Q. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ice‐borne prehistoric finds in the Swiss Alps reflect Holocene glacier fluctuations

During the hot summer of 2003, reduction of an ice field in the Swiss Alps (Schnidejoch) uncovered spectacular archaeological hunting gear, fur, leather and woollen clothing and tools from four distinct windows of time: Neolithic Age (4900 to 4450 cal. yr BP), early Bronze Age (4100–3650 cal. yr BP), Roman Age (1st–3rd century AD), and Medieval times (8–9th century AD and 14–15th century AD). Transalpine routes connecting northern Italy with the northern Alps during these slots is consistent with late Holocene maximum glacier retreat. The age cohorts of the artefacts are separated which is indicative of glacier advances when the route was difficult and not used for transit. The preservation of Neolithic leather indicates permanent ice cover at that site from ca. 4900 cal. yr BP until AD 2003, implying that the ice cover was smaller in 2003 than at any time during the last 5000 years. Current glacier retreat is unprecedented since at least that time. This is highly significant regarding the interpretation of the recent warming and the rapid loss of ice in the Alps. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

山地气候梯变效应与特色气候资源的开发利用

从空气中的氧、二氧化碳、水汽、固体粒子含量以及大气压力、接受的太阳辐射、光照时数、所获得热量、降水量等因素介绍了山地气候梯变效应的具体表现,分析了山地气候梯度效应对生态环境及人类活动的影响。从山地气候梯变效应的实际状况出发,通过分析山地气候资源的特点,指出人类应遵循生态系统、自然保护、景观和谐、因地制宜等原则,挖掘山地气候旅游资源、多样化气候资源和气候"小生境"等气候资源,突显其特色,发展异于平地的农业生产、旅游活动等,将有助于山地特色气候资源的充分利用。     

气候变化对河西内陆干旱区出山径流的影响

根据祁连山区与河西走廊平原区有关水文气象台站的降水、气温和径流观测资料，分析了该区域近50a来气候变化的特征及其与全球气候变暖的关系。出山径流对气候变化的响应以及未来的变化趋势，结果表明，河西内陆干旱区的山区和走廊平原区近几十年来气温变化总的呈上升趋势，与全球增温存在着某种种度的一致性。但山区气温的变化幅度一般大于走廊平原区，其中祁连山中段温度升幅为最大。全球增温对河西内陆干旱区气候与出山径流的影响有着明显的地域性差异，受此影响影响，河西祁连山东部地区出山径流呈明显的下降趋势，中部地区出山径流的增加趋势不是十分明显，西部出山径流在山区降水量与气温同时上升的情况下，呈明显的上升趋势。     

青藏高原隆升对云南高原环境的影响

讨论了云南高原环境从上新世至早更新世对青藏高原隆升的响应。在上新世 ,云南高原普遍发育一套粘土岩、亚粘土岩、粉砂岩及褐煤的湖相、湖沼相沉积 ,大致以红河断裂为界 ,西厚东薄 ,说明在上新世云南高原内部总体构造环境较稳定 ,但西部盆地下沉的速度大于东部盆地。在早更新世 ,云南高原的沉积相和厚度都发生了较大的变化。红河断裂以西为洪冲积相的砾石层 ,厚度薄 ;滇西北主要为河流相的砾石层和砂层 ,略较滇西的厚 ;滇中地区为河湖相和河流相的砂质粘土层、粘土层、砂层和砾石层 ,厚度较大。说明进入早更新世 ,云南高原隆升强度明显加强 ,而且从西部向东部逐渐推进。在早更新世晚期 ,在青藏高原的昆黄运动的影响下 ,全区发生了一次显著的构造运动———元谋运动 ,造成下更新统的褶皱、断裂变形和金沙江的全线贯通。