陆地水资源变化对变暖的响应及其影响因素

"干更干、湿更湿"变化范式为理解气候干湿变化提供了一个简化模板.然而,这一范式仅能有效描述受海洋变化影响的全球平均结果.陆地上水资源变化的影响因素众多,存在很大的不确定性,地形复杂地区尤其如此,目前尚未找到高度概括其时空变异规律的方法.本研究总结了全球陆地,尤其是高海拔地区的水资源变化的研究进展,对比了全球气候模式和区...     

梧州市种植桉树速生丰产林的气候条件分析

从气象的角度,详细对比分析桉树人工林原产地与梧州市(含各县)气候条件的异同,找出它们的相似点,得出梧州市(含各县)的气候条件适宜推广种植桉树人工林的结论,并提出生产上的趋利避害措施和建议。     

1950-2000年中国东部和西部湖区水量空间变化趋势

Lakes in China have undergone considerable environmental changes during the past 50 years, e.g. lake level, water area changes, as did in the past several thousands years.The enhanced human activities, such as land reclamation, application of chemical fertilizer,land use and cover, irrigation and industrialization in the catchment etc., have played an im-portant role on the recent decades' changes of these lakes, although constrained to a great extent by the natural impact. Comparative study on variations of lake volume (water level,depth and area) in the eastern and western lake regions of China during 1950-2000 indicated that, lake volume in the eastern region had approximately undergone a two-stage change, i.e.a dramatic decrease from the 1950s to 1970s, and a continuous increase between the 1980s and 1990s; while, in the western region, lake volume had been decreasing nearly all the time.Further studies on some typical lakes concluded that, climatic change was a primary factor for the variations of lake volume during the past 50 years, although human activities showed important effect.     

气候变暖对河西走廊棉花生产影响的成因与对策研究

揭示了气候变化对河西走廊棉花生产有着显著影响,实际上使其生育期延长20天,霜前花减少30％;适生区域提高100 m左右,面积扩大7倍;衣分提高2个百分点,气候产量增加54.3％的基本事实。探明了现代气候变暖对高原地区喜热作物棉花产生非常有利影响的重要原因,是由于≥10℃积温升高131℃,裂铃至停止生长关键期增温30℃;最低气温升高0.9℃,春季增温加快,秋季降温减缓,使生长期热量资源得到较大补偿,气候生态适应性更适宜,与棉花生理需求指标更接近。预测未来10～15年内≥10℃积温可能增加100～300℃,适生区域升高100 m左右,建议稳步扩大面积20％～30％,并提出按不同种植区域采取相适应的农业生产技术等建议。     

ENSO amplitude change in observation and coupled models

Observations show that the tropical E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） variability, after removing both the long term trend and decadal change of the background climate, has been enhanced by as much as 60% during the past 50 years. This shift in ENSO amplitude can be related to mean state changes in global climate. Past global warming has caused a weakening of the Walker circulation over the equatorial Indo-Pacific oceans, as well as a weakening of the trade winds and a reduction in the equatorial upwelling. These changes in tropical climatology play as stabilizing factors of the tropical coupling system. However, the shallower and strengthening thermocline in the equatorial Pacific increases the SST sensitivity to thermocline and wind stress variabilities and tend to destabilize the tropical coupling system. Observations suggest that the destabilizing factors, such as the strengthening thermocline, may have overwhelmed the stabilizing effects of the atmosphere, and played a deterministic role in the enhanced ENSO variability, at least during the past half century. This is different from the recent assessment of IPCC-AR4 coupled models.     

Climatic features of cloud water distribution and cycle over China

Analyses of cloud water path(CWP)data over China available from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project(ISCCP)are performed for the period 1984-2004.Combined with GPCP precipitation data,cloud water cycle index(CWCI)is also calculated.The climatic distributions of CWP are found to be dependent on large-scale circulation,topographical features,water vapor transport and similar distribution features which are found in CWCI except in the Sichuan Basin.Influenced by the Asia monsoon,CWP over China exhibits very large seasonal variations in different regions.The seasonal cycles of CWCI in different regions are consistent and the largest CWCI occurs in July.The long-term trends of CWP and CWCI are investigated,too.Increasing trends of CWP are found during the period with the largest increase found in winter.The decreasing trends of CWCI dominate most regions of China.The differences in long-term trends between CWP and CWCI suggest that CWP only can influence the variation of CWCI to a certain extent and that other factors need to be involved in cloud water cycle researches.This phenomenon reveals the complexity of the hydrological cycle related to cloud water.     

222团发展酿酒葡萄的气候条件分析

根据葡萄的生物学特性及其对气候条件的要求，对222团的气候资源进行初步分析，结合3年葡萄生产的实际，提出本地区适宜酿酒葡萄的生长。     

近35年江苏沿海气温变化对北半球增暖的响应

采用主分量分析与回归估计相结合的方法,研究近３５年来江苏沿海气温变化对半球增暖的响应状况。根据北半球平均增暖的条件,推求未来气候情景下该区各地增暖的可能幅度及其可靠性。结果表明（１）北半球增暖背景下,本区夏季气温变化趋势和年际振动的响应,具有很大的不确定性;     

43a来我国城市气候和太阳辐射的变化特征

利用1961-2003年气候观测资料和辐射资料,综合分析了我国10个城市43a的云量、日照百分率、相对湿度、气温、降水以及到达地面的太阳辐射等要素的变化趋势。结果表明：（1）43a来10个城市中,多数城市的总云量减少而低云量增加;（2）各城市的日照百分率呈减少趋势;除乌鲁木齐外,其他城市相对湿度呈减小趋势;各地气温都有所升高;降水量变化的地区性差别较大而总体上变化幅度不明显;（3）除昆明外,各地太阳总辐射呈下降趋势,且总辐射减少主要是由直接辐射减少引起的。由此揭示,43a来我国城市正经历着以变暖变干为主的气候变化过程,人类活动特别是工业化和城市化进程,对气候系统产生了重要影响。     

江淮梅雨期极端降水的气候特征

应用1959—2000年江淮地区76站逐日降水资料,对梅雨期月降水量进行REOF分解。将江淮区分为4个具有不同梅雨期降水空间分布特征的区域,进而分别分析这4个区域梅雨期暴雨以上极端降水的季节、年际和年代际变化特征,以及周期振荡和突变性质。结果表明:4个区暴雨以上极端降水总量和极端降水日数最大值均发生在梅雨期,梅雨期极端降水呈上升趋势,且具有不同的年际和年代际变化特征;江淮西南区梅雨期暴雨总量和暴雨日数在20世纪90年代还存在明显上升突变现象;4个区梅雨期极端降水存在不同时间尺度的周期振荡。