Trends of Regional Precipitation and Their Control Mechanisms during 1979–2013

Trends in precipitation are critical to water resources. Considerable uncertainty remains concerning the trends of regional precipitation in response to global warming and their controlling mechanisms. Here, we use an interannual difference method to derive trends of regional precipitation from GPCP(Global Precipitation Climatology Project) data and MERRA(ModernEra Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications) reanalysis in the near-global domain of 60?S–60?N during a major global warming period of 1979–2013. We find that trends of regional annual precipitation are primarily driven by changes in the top 30% heavy precipitation events, which in turn are controlled by changes in precipitable water in response to global warming, i.e., by thermodynamic processes. Significant drying trends are found in most parts of the U.S. and eastern Canada,the Middle East, and eastern South America, while significant increases in precipitation occur in northern Australia, southern Africa, western India and western China. In addition, as the climate warms there are extensive enhancements and expansions of the three major tropical precipitation centers–the Maritime Continent, Central America, and tropical Africa–leading to the observed widening of Hadley cells and a significant strengthening of the global hydrological cycle.     

适应气候变化的国际行动和农业措施研究进展

针对气候变暖采取稳健的适应措施已成为国际社会共识。该文综合了当前适应气候变化的国际谈判进展及已有的农业适应气候变化措施,指出适应资金严重不足,技术研发、应用与转让难以实施,以及适应气候变化行动实施能力的不足严重制约着适应气候变化行动的有效实施;关于农业适应气候变化的技术措施仍缺乏系统的理论研究与应用示范。在此基础上,提出了未来中国农业适应气候变化需要重点开展的研究任务,即农业气象灾变过程的新特点及其风险管理, 农业适应气候变化的大数据决策管理系统研发及适应气候变化的农业气候区划与减灾保产技术研究,以切实推进农业适应气候变化,为确保国家粮食安全与农业可持续发展提供支撑。     

慢特征分析法在气象上的应用进展

气候系统具有非平稳特征,根本原因在于其外强迫随时间发生改变,因此外部驱动力的分析对于理解气候系统的动力学特征至关重要,而如何有效提取系统外部驱动信息是一个亟待解决的前沿科学问题。最近几年,在生物神经学领域中应用的一种提取非平稳信号中外强迫信息的方法——慢特征分析法(Slow Feature Analysis,SFA),在气象领域中也得到了初步成功的尝试,结果显示出此方法对气候系统的外强迫信息分析及有关动力学机制的探究有较好的应用前景。本文主要介绍SFA方法的理论思想及实施步骤,并通过一个理想的非平稳时间序列检验其提取外强迫信息的能力,结果证明在衰减的Logistic模型中,可利用SFA算法提取出模型中的外强迫,且与真实外强迫的相关系数可达0.99;此外,还介绍将该方法应用于Arosa臭氧时间序列,分析其提取的外强迫信息的动力学特征;并介绍了在气候时间序列建模中引入外强迫因子的预测效果。     

基于MTSAT卫星遥感的中国海及西北太平洋海域海表温度日增温研究

Hourly sea surface temperature(SST) observations from the geostationary satellite are increasingly used in studies of the diurnal warming of the surface oceans. The aim of this study is to derive the spatial and temporal distribution of diurnal warming in the China seas and northwestern Pacific Ocean from Multi-functional Transport Satellite(MTSAT) SST. The MTSAT SST is validated against drifting buoy measurements firstly. It shows mean biases is about –0.2°C and standard deviation is about 0.6°C comparable to other satellite SST accuracy. The results show that the tropics, mid-latitudes controlled by subtropical high and marginal seas are frequently affected by large diurnal warming. The Kuroshio and its extension regions are smaller compared with the surrounding regions. A clear seasonal signal, peaking at spring and summer can be seen from the long time series of diurnal warming in the domain in average. It may due to large insolation and low wind speed in spring and summer, while the winter being the opposite. Surface wind speed modulates the amplitude of the diurnal cycle by influencing the surface heat flux and by determining the momentum flux. For the shallow marginal seas, such as the East China Sea, turbidity would be another important factor promoting diurnal warming. It suggests the need for the diurnal variation to be considered in SST measurement, air-sea flux estimation and multiple sensors SST blending.     

Missing the boat: Critical threats to coral reefs are neglected at global scale

Coral reefs have experienced a global decline due to overfishing, pollution, and warming oceans that are becoming increasingly acidic. To help halt and reverse this decline, interventions should be aimed at those threats reef experts and managers identify as most severe. The survey included responses from 170 managers, representing organizations from 50 countries and territories, and found that respondents generally agreed on the two major threats: overfishing and coastal development. However, resource allocation did not match this consensus on major threats. In particular, while overfishing receives much attention, coastal development and its attendant pollution are largely neglected and underfunded. These results call for a re-examination of how resources are allocated in coral reef conservation, with more attention given to aligning how money is spent with what are perceived to be the primary threats.     

Phylogeography of the pelagic fish Seriola lalandi at different scales: confirmation of inter-ocean population structure and evaluation of southern African genetic diversity

The study investigated the global and regional phylogeography of the yellowtail kingfish Seriola lalandi by examining genetic diversity and population genetic structure of this species at inter-and intra-ocean level and on a regional scale. DNA fragments of two mitochondrial genes, cytochrome b (Cytb) and cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) and one nuclear gene, recombination activating gene 1 (RAG1), were sequenced to investigate the global-scale phylogeography of this species. The population genetic structure within the South Pacific, as well as along the South African coastline, was examined further using six microsatellite markers. Three distinct clades were identified for S. lalandi, which correspond with previously described subspecies of the North-East Pacific, North-West Pacific and the Southern Hemisphere. Within the latter, additional divergence was observed between the South Pacific and the South-East Atlantic regions. Divergence estimates were indicative of a Pacific origin for S. lalandi populations, because of Pleistocene vicariant events. Microsatellite analyses revealed overall significant genetic differentiation between South African and South Pacific samples. This corroborates recent findings on the global phylogeography of the species. No population differentiation was observed within South Africa, indicating high levels of gene flow.     

东北多年冻土退化及环境效应研究现状与展望

东北多年冻土属中高纬度多年冻土,对气候变化非常敏感。数据模型模拟表明,21世纪东北多年冻土区气温会持续上升,显著的变暖将导致多年冻土退化。东北多年冻土呈现自南向北的区域性退化趋势,多年冻土区南部表现为南界的北移、融区的扩大和多年冻土的消失,而北部表现为多年冻土下限的上移、活动层厚度增大及地温升高等。多年冻土的退化会导致寒区生态环境的恶化,如兴安落叶松占绝对优势的天然林带锐减,林带北移,沼泽湿地萎缩等。随着多年冻土的迅速退缩和变薄,原多年冻土中蕴藏的碳将释放出来,对气候变化产生积极的正反馈,加速变暖,并影响全球碳循环。多年冻土退化导致其热状态失稳而造成寒区基础设施损坏,并且影响冻土微生物、碳循环、寒区生态和水文等,而它们是区域气候变化的重要因子,也将成为未来多年冻土研究的重点。而这些研究都需要长期的基础数据作支撑,因此需要进一步完善冻土参数监测网络,用模型厘清气候变化与多年冻土退化及其环境效应之间的关系。     

遵义市袋栽黑木耳最佳栽培期气候条件分析*

为了找出黑木耳在遵义的最佳栽培期,2019年笔者在遵义市气象观测站开展试验,收集并整理黑木耳生长期内逐日气象资料,结合试验数据综合分析,结果显示：（1）平均气温在20℃左右时,对木耳品质形成较为有利,候平均气温＜5℃或≥30℃时不适宜黑木耳生长。（2）除盛夏和初秋相对湿度较低外,其余大部分时段均能满足木耳自然生长,少部分时段需适当浇水。（3）3月至10月候日照时数普遍在10小时以上,适宜黑木耳生长,其中4月4候至9月4候为最适宜期。（4）遵义立体气候特征明显,海拔高度不同木耳适宜生长期时段不同,大部分地区海拔普遍在600～1100米之间,黑木耳生长最佳适宜期为4月3候至6月6候、8月6候至10月5候。     

高海拔多年冻土区路基工程行为对低温多年冻土长期影响的监测研究

青藏铁路路基创造性采用了主动冷却路基的设计理念修建而成,目前铁路已经安全运营超过10年。青藏铁路路基修筑在多年冻土之上,路基下部冻土温度变化是衡量路基是否稳定的关键因素。基于长期（2008—2019年）地温观测资料,对昆仑山垭口南坡青藏铁路K980+000低温多年冻土区块石路基坡脚至坡脚外30 m范围内的冻土上限变化、年际地温变化、季节性地温变化进行分析,研究了路基工程行为对低温多年冻土的长期影响机制。结果表明：冻土地温不断升高,冻土上限逐年下移;与天然孔比较,路基坡脚处地温增温幅度反而较小,主要可能受块石路基冷却效应的影响;冷季与暖季呈现出不对称的增温趋势。冻土路基普遍增温的趋势仍然存在,出于对多年冻土的保护与保证工程稳定性的考虑,应尽量采用冷却路基的思想修建路基。同时,应加强对路基的监测,分析长期增温过程后路基稳定性变化,并对路基下部冻土的变化做出定量研究。     

模式内部变率引起的1.5℃和2℃升温阈值出现时间模拟的不确定性研究

模式内部变率是模拟结果不确定性的重要来源,然而它对于1.5℃和2℃升温阈值出现时间不确定性的影响尚不清楚。因此,基于耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(CMIP5)的多模式数据研究了模式内部变率对1.5℃和2℃升温阈值出现时间不确定性的影响以及对未来排放情景的敏感性。结果表明,模式内部变率对升温阈值出现时间模拟的影响与外强迫的影响相当,单个模式内部不同成员达到全球平均1.5℃或2℃增温的年份相差2~12年;其影响具有明显的空间差异,影响极大值出现在欧亚大陆以北洋面、白令海峡周围区域、北美东北部及其与格陵兰岛之间的海域、南半球高纬地区等;低排放情景下模式内部变率的影响大于高排放情景。