小波气候突变的检测--应用范围及应注意的问题

气候突变及其检测是气候变化研究的一个重要方面。气候突变的表现多种多样,目前也有许多检测气候突变的方法,但这些方法能否准确地检测出气候突变现象,他们的适用范围如何,是一个值得注意的问题。研究表明,尽管小波分析方法在检测序列突变方面具有严格的数学意义,但因为其检测到的是序列的均值突变,因此,在应用于气候突变的检测方面应该特别注意,数学上的严格并不等同于气候意义上的严格。因为某些情况下有些突变点并没有一定的气候意义。     

Geographical distribution of fish catches and temperature variations in the northeast Atlantic since 1945

Warming of the northeast Atlantic is expected to affect the location and productivity of fish stocks. It is examined whether variations in catches of cod, herring, mackerel, anchovy and sardines in the ICES statistical areas are related to variations in ocean temperature. Temperatures at certain locations along the Norwegian coast are taken as proxies for temperatures in the Norwegian Sea and the North Sea. It is found that the catches of cod in the North Sea are inversely correlated with temperature and that recruitment and catches of cod in the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea are positively related to temperature. There is also some indication of a positive correlation between temperature and the catches of mackerel in the North Sea and the Norwegian Sea, and between temperature and the catches of sardines in the North Sea.     

Storminess and vulnerability along the Atlantic coastlines of Europe: analysis of storm records and of a greenhouse gases induced climate scenario

Identification of the distinctive circulation patterns of storminess on the Atlantic margin of Europe forms the main objective of this study; dealing with storm frequency, intensity and tracking. The climatology of the extratropical cyclones that affect this region has been examined for the period 1940–1998. Coastal meteorological data from Ireland to Spain have been linked to the cyclone history for the North Atlantic in the analysis of storm records for European coasts. The study examines the evolution in the occurrence of storms since the 1940s and also their relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Results indicate a seasonal shift in the wind climate, with regionally more severe winters and calmer summers established. This pattern appears to be linked to a northward displacement in the main North Atlantic cyclone track.

An experiment with the ECHAM4 A-GCM at high resolution (T106) has also been used to model the effect of a greenhouse gases induced warming climate on the climatology of coastal storms in the region. The experiment consists of (1), a 30-year control time-slice representing present-day equivalent CO₂ concentrations and (2), a 30-year perturbed period corresponding to a time when the radiative forcing has doubled in terms of equivalent CO₂ concentrations. The boundary conditions have been obtained from an atmosphere-ocean coupled OA-GCM simulation at low horizontal resolution. An algorithm was developed to allow the identification of individual cyclone movements in selected coastal zones. For most of the northern part of the study region, covering Ireland and Scotland, results describe the establishment by ca. 2060 of a tendency for fewer but more intense storms.

The impacts of these changes in storminess for the vulnerability of European Atlantic coasts are considered. For low-lying, exposed and ‘soft’ sedimentary coasts, as in Ireland, these changes in storminess are likely to result in significant localised increases in coastal erosion.     

Are Global Tide Gauge Data Stationary in Variance?

Tide gauges distributed all over the world provide valuable information for monitoring mean sea level changes. The statistical models used in estimating sea level change from the tide gauge data assume implicitly that the random model components are stationary in variance. We show that for a large number of global tide gauge data this is not the case for the seasonal part using a variate-differencing algorithm. This finding is important for assessing the reliability of the present estimates of mean sea level changes because nonstationarity of the data may have marked impact on the sea level rate estimates, especially, for the data from short records.     

A preliminary study of carbon system in the East China Sea

In the central part of the East China Sea, the activity of CO₂ in the surface water and total carbonate, pH and alkalinity in the water column were determined in winter and autumn of 1993. The activity of CO₂ in the continental shelf water was about 50 ppm lower than that of surface air. This decrease corresponds to the absorption of about 40 gC/m²/yr of atmospheric CO₂ in the coastal zone or 1 GtC/yr in the global continental shelf, if this rate is applicable to entire coastal seas. The normalized total carbonate contents were higher in the water near the coast and near the bottom. This increase toward the bottom may be due to the organic matter deposited on the bottom. This conclusion is supported by the distribution of pH. The normalized alkalinity distribution also showed higher values in the near-coast water, but in the surface water, indicating the supply of bicarbonate from river water. The residence time of the East China Sea water, including the Yellow Sea water, has been calculated to be about 0.8 yr from the excess alkalinity and the alkalinity input. Using this residence time and the excess carbonate, we can estimate that the amount of dissolved carbonate transported from the coastal zone to the oceanic basin is about 70 gC/m²/yr or 2 GtC/yr/area-of-global-continental-shelf. This also means that the rivers transport carbon to the oceans at a rate of 30 gC/m²/yr of the coastal sea or 0.8 GtC/yr/ area-of-global shelf, the carbon consisting of dissolved inorganic carbonate and terrestrial organic carbon decomposed on the continental shelf.     

东南亚10°—25°N,105°—130°E海区热带风暴异常路径的分析

本文４１ａ（１９４９－１９８９年）的资料，对东南亚１０°－２５°Ｎ，１０５°－１３０°Ｅ范围７－９月出现的热带风暴异常路长进行了普查统计和气候分析。结果表明：产生异常路径热风暴的机率约占区域内热带风暴总数的２０％；异常路径的产生与热带风暴所处的地理位置，季节，环下等因素有关。正确地考虑气候规律和具体的天气条件相结合是预报带式风暴异常路径成败的关键。     

Persistent volcanic signature observed around Barren Island, Andaman Sea, India

This study delineates the formation of a warm pool (>34°C) of air to the west (downwind) of the active volcano of the Barren Island during October–November 2005. Barren Island is located in the Sumatra–Andaman region, about 135 km east of Port Blair, and lies within the Burma microplate, the southern tip of which experienced a submarine earthquake (M _w 9.3) causing a tsunami in December 2004. Barren Island is the only volcano, which has shown sustained eruptive activity since shortly after the Great Sumatran Earthquake of December 2004. Our observations require further corroboration to relate how submarine earthquakes activate volcanoes and how far these thermal emissions influence climate changes. Because it links global warming and climate changes to the frequent emissions from a volcano activated by submarine earthquakes, this case study is of special interest to the earth-ocean-atmosphere sciences community.     

渤海湾盆地沙河街组钙质超微化石古生态及沉积环境

渤海湾盆地沙河街组中钙质超微化石的发现,表明这一时期渤海湾盆地与海水有过联系。对钙质超微化石古生态及沉积环境研究表明,化石主要产出时代为始新世晚期至渐新世早中期,属“间冰期”亚热带气候型。这一问题的深入研究,对于渤海湾盆地的石油勘探有重要意义。     

1993—2001年全球海面高度变化特征

应用TOPEX／POSEIDON（T／P）卫星高度计测高资料，对全球海洋的海面变化特征进行了分析，结果表明，1993年1月－2001年6月期间，全球海平面呈现上升的态势；全球平均海平面高度的平均上升速率约为1．2mm/a；海温的变化是引起海平面变化的重要原因，便其对海平面抬升的贡献不到50％。海平面的变化具有很强的地域特征。海平面变化的空间分布特征受风应力异常特别是纬向风应力异常的空间分布影响较大。     

中国近海沿岸海温多时间尺度变率及影响其变化的天气气候因素

本文通过对中国近海13个海洋站1959年～2003年逐日日平均海表温度及其相关数据的处理分析,结合中国近海多年逐日天气实况,研究了中国近海水温的短时（1d）、过程、旬、月、年际变率以及海温的长期趋势变化,并在此基础上详细讨论了影响中国近海各时间尺度水温变化的天气气候因素.