MANAGING PLANET EARTH TO MAKE FUTURE DEVELOPMENT MORE SUSTAINABLE： CLIMATE CHANGE AND HONG KONG

Selected recent findings related to climate change in Hong Kong include： (1)The Hong Kong seafloor has yielded a ca0.5-million year record of climate and sealevel changes.(2)Greenhouse gases produced naturally from subaerially exposed continental shelves and oceanic islands were a probable forcing mechanism in triggering the abrupt termination of past ice ages. (3)An analysis of annual mean temperature records has revealed that the urban heat island effect has contributed ca75％ of the warming. (4)Past volcanic eruptions are found to lower Hong Kongs temperature and to cause extremely dry and wet years. (5)No evidence can be found for an increase in frequency and intensity of typhoons based on the instrumental record since the end of the Second World War. (6)The observed rate of sealevel rise in the South China Sea is much slower than the predictions of the IPCC Fourth Assessment.
For the Earths management, population growth and the depletion of nonrenewable resources must be recognized as unsustainable. The human impact on the natural hydrological cycle is an important forcing mechanism in climate change. In order to delay the demise of the human race, management must include curbing population growth and much more waste recycling than at present.     

兰州雨量谱的气候变化与极端化趋势

利用兰州站1951-2005年逐日降水观测资料,进行雨量划分级别,分析了55 a来兰州分级降水雨量谱和极端降水的气候变化和发展趋势.研究表明:兰州年降水量逐年波动下降,长期变化趋势为每10 a下降9.0 mm,近20 a达到每10 a下降22.6 mm;年降水日数的长期变化趋势为每10 a下降3.6 d,近20 a为每10 a下降3.7 d.主要是由于小、中雨级的降水减少明显造成.兰州近20 a大雨以上级别的极端降水量增多,变化趋势为每10 a增加9.9 mm,年降水日数的变化趋势为每10 a增加0.4d.兰州年降水强度的长期变化趋势为每10 a上升0.1 mm·d1,其中小雨、中雨级别的贡献并不明显,主要的增加贡献是由大雨以上级别的降水强度增加所导敢的.极端降水的强度在近20 a的变化趋势为每10 a增加5.7 mm·d-1.兰州近20 a的年降水量中极端降水量占的比例由15.9%上升至1 6.2%;极端降水日数增加,其比例从1.8%上升至2.0%,在2000年极端降水所占的比例更是达到雨量的25.4%和雨日的4.0%水半,呈现出向极端降水增强的发展趋势.     

我国喜马拉雅地区适应气候变化能力建设的需求调查与分析

喜马拉雅地区是全球潜在关键区,过去几十年的气候变化已导致该地区冰川消融,与冰川有关的灾害风险与日俱增,随着气候的持续变暖,冰川消融将对该地区水资源供给产生负面影响.基于社会调查和实地考察,分析了我国喜马拉雅山地区冰川消融对灾害的可能影响,对水电发展的现实和潜在影响,并详细分析了气候变化对农业、牧业和林业的影响.根据调查问卷,分析了当地在适应冰川消融方面的迫切需求,社会经济不同部门适应气候变化的需求.以位于珠峰北坡朋曲河流域的定日县为典型区,探讨了在该县增强适应气候变化能力建设问题.当地应首先加强气候防护基础设施建设,以应对目前强降水增加引发的山洪、冰川加速消融导致的冰川洪水和泥石流危害、气候暖干化导致的农牧业干旱;开展以水能为主,多能互补,能源多样化建设,既可加快当地社会经济发展,又可促进当地居民适应气候变化能力的提高;吸引本地人才回流,加强各级岗位人才培训,提高管理水平和技术水平;大力开展科普宣传,提高农牧民对气候变化及其影响的了解和认识,增强其防御和应对能力.     

上新世中期中国气候的数值模拟分析

使用中国科学院大气物理研究所的全球大气环流模式,曾就上新世中期(距今约3百万年前)气候进行过数值模拟试验,在已有针对全球气候进行分析的工作基础上,集中研究了该地质时期我国气候的变化特征。数值试验结果表明,除了青藏高原地区由于地形海拔高度变化而引起的局地冷却现象以外,上新世中期我国约100°E以东地区地表气温上升4～8℃,升温中心位于江淮流域下游地区; 该经度线以西地区地表气温升幅相对要弱一些,在1～4℃之间。上新世中期年均降水在我国东部地区显著减少,平均减幅在0.5mm/天以上,特别是在长江中游地区; 新疆北部、青海和西藏大部年均降水略有增加,而新疆中部和南部年均降水略有减少。在对流层低层,上新世中期东亚冬季风系统减弱,夏季风系统总体上略有减弱; 在对流层中层,冬季东亚大槽显著减弱,夏季中高纬度地区500hPa位势高度升高。在以上结果中,上新世中期我国气候相对于现在偏暖、东亚冬季风强度减弱得到了代用资料的支持。     

Rivers, chemical weathering and Earth's climate

We detail the results of recent studies describing and quantifying the large-scale chemical weathering of the main types of continental silicate rocks: granites and basalts. These studies aim at establishing chemical weathering laws for these two lithologies, describing the dependence of chemical weathering on environmental parameters, such as climate and mechanical erosion. As shown within this contribution, such mathematical laws are of primary importance for numerical models calculating the evolution of the partial pressure of atmospheric CO₂ and the Earth climate at geological timescales. The major results can be summarized as follow: (1) weathering of continental basaltic lithologies accounts for about 30% of the total consumption of atmospheric CO₂ through weathering of continental silicate rocks. This is related to their high weatherability (about eight times greater than the granite weatherability); (2) a simple weathering law has been established for basaltic lithologies, giving the consumption of atmospheric CO₂ as a function of regional continental runoff, and mean annual regional temperature; (3) no such simple weathering law can be proposed for granitic lithologies, since the effect of temperature can only be identified for regions displaying high continental runoff; (4) a general law relating mechanical erosion and chemical weathering has been validated on small and large catchments. The consequences of these major advances on the climatic evolution of the Earth are discussed. Particularly, the impacts of the onset of the Deccan trapps and the Himalayan orogeny on the global carbon cycle are reinvestigated. To cite this article: B. Dupré et al., C. R. Geoscience 335 (2003).     

秋季巴伦支海海温异常对冬季我国渤海冰情的可能影响

本文利用美国NCEP/NCAR逐月的再分析资料、HadISST海温、中国160台站气温和反映渤海冰情轻重的渤海冰情等级资料,研究了前秋巴伦支海海温异常对后期渤海冰情和东亚冬季风的影响,并对相关的物理过程进行分析。结果表明,前秋巴伦支海关键区海温与该区域海冰密集度呈显著的负相关,且具有较好的持续性,通过调节随后冬季向大气释放的热通量,引起后期环流变化。偏高(偏低)年冬季亚洲纬向环流偏弱(偏强),东亚大槽加深(减弱),东亚冬季风加强(减弱),我国东北、华北及西北地区地区显著偏冷(偏暖),这与冬季渤海海冰异常的强度和范围都偏大(小)及与之相联系的环流异常相一致。进一步的分析揭示了联系上游关键区海温变化与后期东亚地区气候异常的重要途径,前秋巴伦支海海温偏高会导致200 hPa高度场形成一个自西向东的波列形式,在东亚局地Hadley环流异常的作用下,加强了我国北方地区地表的北风异常。因此,前秋巴伦支海海温异常可以作为冬季渤海冰情的预报因子。     

Equilibrium erosion of soft rock shores with a shallow or absent beach under increased sea level rise

A process-based numerical model was used to explore the response of soft rock shores with low volume beaches to variable rates of sea level rise. Equilibrium recession rates were simulated for ranges of wave height and period, tidal amplitude, rock strength, beach volume and rate of sea level rise. Equilibrium shore profiles were found to be steeper with higher rates of sea level rise. Beaches were represented as protective surfaces yet were found to cause no significant reduction in equilibrium recession rate when their volumes were below a critical threshold. Reduced equilibrium recession rates were found with beaches that extended sufficiently far below low tide level. The model results imply that, given several constraints, a very simple relationship exists between increased rates of sea level rise and the response of eroding composite soft rock/low volume beach shores.