2023年秋季我国气候异常特征及成因分析

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析数据集和中国2400个站的气候观测数据,对2023年秋季我国气候异常特征及其成因进行分析。2023年秋季全国平均气温为1961年以来历史同期最高;全国平均降水量接近常年同期,但空间分布不均且季节内变化明显。秋季欧亚中高纬环流呈“两槽一脊”型,造成我国气温显著偏高;9月呈“两脊一槽”型,巴尔喀什湖低槽活动导致西北地区降水增多;10月呈“两槽一脊”型,导致北方地区偏暖加强;11月呈“西高东低”型,东路冷空气增强,东北地区气温偏低、降水偏多。西太平洋副热带高压总体较常年偏强、偏西,脊线9月异常偏北、10月偏南、11月接近常年。印缅槽9月显著偏强,10—11月接近常年。9月印缅槽偏强与副热带高压异常偏北共同导致了长江中下游以北至黄河下游地区多雨;10—11月东部地区水汽条件整体偏差。9—10月近海台风频繁活动,造成华南地区降水偏多。2023年秋季我国气候受到大气季节内变化的显著作用,热带海温异常的影响不典型。     

2023年全球重大天气气候事件

2023年,全球平均气温比工业化前高出约1.45℃(±0.12℃),是有观测记录以来最热的一年。全球海平面继续上升,且全球平均海平面达到了有卫星记录(1993年至今)以来的最高水平,反映了持续的海洋变暖以及冰川和冰盖的融化。北极海冰面积仍远低于常年值,南极海冰面积创下历史新低。巴基斯坦、中国京津冀地区、意大利、巴西圣保罗州北部沿海地区、新西兰北岛等地遭受暴雨洪涝灾害,非洲西北部、中国云南、中美洲和南美洲北部发生严重干旱,南欧、北美、南美、东亚和南亚等地遭遇创纪录高温热浪,欧洲和北美等地遭遇寒流和暴风雪侵袭,强对流天气频繁袭击世界各处,全球热带气旋活动频繁。     

D) UNITED Nations

Synopsis

In areas of accentuated relief, some of the basic assumptions made in the use of standard methods of assessing areal mean rainfall are often untenable. It is shown in this paper, that, not only does topography affect the actual rainfall distribution, but that the areal variability, measured as the correlation between any two points, is also dependent on the relief. Two methods are used to show this. Once method compares the areal variability of a flat area to one of accentuated relief, while the second method relates areal variability to topographic factors using a multiple regression technique.

The conclusions reached are then used for three purposed. The first is to develop a method of ascribing objectively areas or points to a particular raingauge, taking into account the nature of the terrain. The second is to establish a procedure for estimating the rainfall at ungauged points, by taking into account the rainfall at a selected nearby rainguage and the topographic situation of the points, and the third purpose is to provide means of establishing a correction factor to be applied to a raingauge reading in order that the reading may more accurately represent the area ascribed to it.     

基于IPCC AR4部分耦合模式结果的21世纪长江中下游强降水预估

利用IPCC AR4气候模式诊断和相互比较项目(PCMDI)20世纪模拟试验资料, 通过模式气候态与观测(再分析)气候态的对比, 从存有完整逐日降水资料的14个模式中挑选出7个对东亚模拟较好的模式(即gfdl cm2.0、 gfdl cm2.1、 cgcm、miroc(m)、 cnrm、 echam、 cgcmt47)。然后, 利用这7个模式在A1B、 A2、 B1三种不同温室气体排放情景下21世纪预估试验结果, 分析长江中下游强降水的未来演变。结果表明: 不同模式模拟结果有较好的一致性。相对20世纪后20年(1980—1999年)的平均而言, 21世纪不仅年平均强降水日数、 单次强降水强度呈现上升趋势, 且其年际变率也增强; 就不同排放情景比较而言, A1B、 A2情景下强降水频次与强度的增强趋势均比B1情景下要大; 就多模式平均来看, 在A1B、 A2、 B1排放情景下, 强降水频次分别增加约30%、 20%、 l5％, 强降水强度分别增加约20%、20%、 10%, 强降水频次的年际标准差在三种情景下均增加约20%, 强降水强度年际标准差分别增加约20%、20%、 10%。这些结果意味着, 未来不仅强降水增加, 且极端暴雨、 大暴雨易于出现, 旱涝也将更为频繁。     

Population connectivity of an overexploited coastal fish,Argyrosomus coronus (Sciaenidae), in an ocean-warming hotspot

The West Coast dusky kob Argyrosomus coronus is a commercially exploited fish with a distribution confined to the Angola–Benguela Frontal Zone (ABFZ) of the southeastern Atlantic Ocean. A previous study revealed that during a recent period of local warming the species extended its distribution into Namibian waters, where it hybridised with the resident and congeneric Argyrosomus inodorus. Environmental changes are a major threat to marine biodiversity and when combined with overfishing have the potential to accelerate the decline of species. However, little is known regarding the evolutionary history and population structure of A. coronus across the ABFZ. We investigated genetic diversity, population structure and historical demographic changes using mtDNA control region sequences and genotypes at six nuclear microsatellite loci, from 180 individuals. A single, genetically homogeneous population was indicated across the distributional range of A. coronus (φ_ST = 0.041, F_ST = 0.000, D = 0.000; p > 0.05). These findings imply that the oceanographic features within the ABFZ do not appear to significantly influence population connectivity in A. coronus, which simplifies management of the species. However, reconstruction of the demographic history points to a close link between the evolutionary history of A. coronus and the environmental characteristics of the ABFZ. This outcome suggests the species’ vulnerability to the rapid environmental changes being observed across this region, and highlights a pressing need for transboundary management to mitigate the impacts of climate change in this global hotspot of seawater temperature changes.     

Terrestrial discharge influences microbioerosion and microbioeroder community structure in coral reefs

Microbioerosion rates and microbioeroder community structure were studied in four Kenyan protected coral-reef lagoons using shell fragments of Tridacna giant clams to determine their response to the influence of terrestrial run-off. Fourteen different microbioeroder traces from seven cyanobacteria, three green algae and four fungi species were identified. The river discharge-impacted reef and ‘pristine’ reef showed similar composition but higher microbioeroder abundance and total cyanobacteria- and chlorophyte-bioeroded areas when compared with the other study reefs. Cyanobacteria dominated during the north-east monsoon (NEM) relative to the south-east monsoon (SEM) season, with algae and cyanobacteria being major microbioeroders in the river-impacted and pristine reefs. The rate of microbioerosion varied between 4.3 g CaCO3 m^?2 y^?1 (SEM) and 134.7 g CaCO₃ m^?2 y^?1 (NEM), and was highest in the river-impacted reef (127.6 g CaCO₃ m^?2 y^?1), which was almost double that in the pristine reef (69.5 g CaCO₃ m^?2 y^?1) and the mangrove-fringed reef (56.2 g CaCO₃ m^?2 y^?1). The microbioerosion rates measured in this study may not be high enough to cause concern with regard to the health and net carbonate production of Kenya’s coral reefs. Nevertheless, predicted increases in the frequency and severity of stresses related to global climate change (e.g. increased sea surface temperature, acidification), as well as interactions with local disturbances and their influence on bioerosion, may be increasingly important in the future.     

利用综合评分方法评估CMIP5模式对北极海冰的模拟能力

北极海冰冰盖自20世纪以来经历了前所未有的缩减,这使得北极海冰异常对大气环流的反馈作用日益显现。尽管目前的气候模式模拟北极海冰均为减少的趋势,但各模式间仍然存在较大的分散性。为了评估模式对于北极海冰变化及其气候效应的模拟能力,我们将海冰线性趋势和年际异常两者结合起来构造了一种合理的衡量指标。我们还强调巴伦支与卡拉海的重要性,因为前人研究证明此区域海冰异常是近年来影响大尺度大气环流变异的关键因子。根据我们设定的标准,CMIP5模式对海冰的模拟可被归为三种类型。这三组多模式集合平均之间存在巨大的差异,验证了这种分组方法的合理性。此外,我们还进一步探讨了造成模式海冰模拟能力差别的潜在物理因子。结果表明模式所采用的臭氧资料集对海冰模拟能力有显著的影响。     

Climate change: Social adaptation strategies for fishermen

As climate change continues to pose a major threat to the well-being of both people and the environment, adaptation to its negative effects has moved to the forefront among occupations that rely on natural resources for their livelihood. As one of the main occupational groups who are dependent on nature, fishermen are expected to experience many new challenges from the changing climate. Though an adequate amount of scientific research on climate change has been carried out, few studies have explored the social circumstances of the issue, particularly in the context of small scale fishermen. This paper aims to address this gap. Aspects such as risks reduction, social relationships, climate change knowledge, alternative skills, involvement in adaptation planning and access to credit are recommended to be considered as these are found to provide synergy for social adaptation, and it is hoped that such recommendation strategies will assist stakeholders in generating and engendering effective adaptation strategies for small-scale fishermen.