2003年北黄海5.1级地震的地震活动特征

对2003年北黄海5．1级地震的地震活动背景、地震序列、震中周围中小地震活动图像及地震学参数等进行了详细分析。认为该次地震为前-主-余型，经历了一个活跃-平静-发震的过程；地震前震中附近出现了孕震空区和一些地震活动性参数异常。     

小波变换在东北地震趋势分析中的应用

本文在多年对东北地震大形势研究基础上,根据1900年以来东北地区地震目录资料,按年最大震级、地震频度和地震活动度分别建立三个时间序列f(t),利用离散小波变换对其进行分解,结果发现三个序列的小波变换细节系数均显示平均约20年周期的时序特征,并与该区地震活跃期符合得较好。依此,对该区地震活动发展趋势作了预测,认为当前地震活跃期大约在2008年结束。     

Accurate Location of the Yao''''an Earthquake Sequence and the Yongsheng Earthquake Sequence

INTRODUCTIONEarthquake sequence is a series of centralized earthquake events in space-time after a largerearthquake.Since these earthquake events occur in a small space and are sequential in one specialtime,their seismogenic structure,mediumcharacteristics and earthquake mechanisms must be similar.By studying one earthquake sequence,the seismic activitytrend after a large earthquake can beconjectured.Some characteristics of the earthquake source development process and physic states canal…     

大庆探区外围盆地中、新生代地层对比及四大勘探层系

大庆外围盆地的区域对比与组合规律研究,对于揭示东北中、新生代盆地演化规律和拓展油气开发思路具有重要意义.利用岩性特征、古生物化石组合、同位素等资料,对大庆探区外围盆地中、新生代地层进行了对比,总结了地层发育的宏观规律,提出了中-上侏罗统、下白垩统、上白垩统和古近系四大勘探层系,为大庆探区外围盆地进一步的沉积、构造演化及石油地质研究提供了可靠的依据.     

鲁北济阳坳陷东营凹陷南坡沙河街组第四段上亚段高分辨率层序地层格架

应用高分辨率层序地层学与沉积学等理论,通过对地震、录井、测井资料的分析,对鲁北东营凹陷南坡沙河街组第四段上亚段进行了高分辨率层序地层学的划分与对比,总结出各层序地层单元及其界面在录井和地震资料中的判识标志,把研究区基准面旋回划分为短期、中期和长期3个级别的旋回层序.整个沙河街组第四段上亚段由一个长期基准面旋回组成,并划分出5个中期基准面旋回,首次建立了研究区内该亚段高分辨率层序地层格架,有利于东营凹陷南坡该亚段沉积微相和储层结构描述等精细地质研究的进一步开展.     

黑龙江省气候变化趋势对小麦产量的影响

利用黑龙江省1961～2003年逐日气象资料,采用世界粮食研究模型(WOFOST)和气候变化趋势分析的数学方法,分析了气候变化趋势对小麦产量变化趋势的影响.在黑龙江省中部、东部和北部相对湿润的小麦种植区域,辐射量降低趋势是小麦模拟产量降低趋势的主要气候原因;在松嫩平原西南部的齐齐哈尔市、大庆市和哈尔滨市,降水量增加的趋势是小麦模拟产量增加趋势的主要气候原因;在西北部的北安、五大连池、克山和克东4县,辐射量增加趋势是小麦模拟产量增加趋势的主要气候原因;黑龙江省小麦模拟产量变化趋势百分率的平均值为-1.57%/10a.     

Progress in Predictability Studies in China （2003-2006）

Since the last International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics General Assembly(2003),predictability studies in China have made significant progress.For dynamic forecasts,two novel approaches of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation and nonlinear local Lyapunov exponents were proposed to cope with the predictability problems of weather and climate,which are superior to the corresponding linear theory.A possible mechanism for the"spring predictability barrier"phenomenon for the El Ni(?)o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)was provided based on a theoretical model.To improve the forecast skill of an intermediate coupled ENSO model,a new initialization scheme was developed,and its applicability was illustrated by hindcast experiments.Using the reconstruction phase space theory and the spatio-temporal series predictive method, Chinese scientists also proposed a new approach to improve dynamical extended range(monthly)prediction and successfully applied it to the monthly-scale predictability of short-term climate variations.In statistical forecasts,it was found that the effects of sea surface temperature on precipitation in China have obvious spatial and temporal distribution features,and that summer precipitation patterns over east China are closely related to the northern atmospheric circulation.For ensemble forecasts,a new initial perturbation method was used to forecast heavy rain in Guangdong and Fujian Provinces on 8 June 1998.Additionally, the ensemble forecast approach was also used for the prediction of a tropical typhoons.A new downscaling model consisting of dynamical and statistical methods was provided to improve the prediction of the monthly mean precipitation.This new downsealing model showed a relatively higher score than the issued operational forecast.     

濮阳近50a风速变化特征及突变分析

利用线性分析方法,分析了濮阳近50 a平均风速、大风日数的变化特征,并利用滑动的t检验法分析了风速突变,结果显示:年平均风速以0.498(m/s)/10 a的倾向率减少,大风和扬沙日数分别以2.7 d/10 a和5.6 d/10 a的倾向率减少;平均风速,大风、扬沙日数在20世纪80年代初期发生突变。     

Some economics of ‘dangerous’ climate change: Reflections on the Stern Review

The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change concluded that there can be “no doubt” the economic risks of business-as-usual (BAU) climate change are “very severe” [Stern, 2006. The Economics of Climate Change. HM Treasury, London, p. 188]. The total cost of climate change was estimated to be equivalent to a one-off, permanent 5–20% loss in global mean per-capita consumption today. And the marginal damage cost of a tonne of carbon emitted today was estimated to be around $312 [p. 344]. Both of these estimates are higher than most reported in the previous literature. Subsequently, a number of critiques have appeared, arguing that discounting is the principal explanation for this discrepancy. Discounting is important, but in this paper we emphasise that how one approaches the economics of risk and uncertainty, and how one attempts to model the very closely related issue of low-probability/high-damage scenarios (which we connect to the recent discussion of ‘dangerous’ climate change), can matter just as much. We demonstrate these arguments empirically, using the same models applied in the Stern Review. Together, the issues of risk and uncertainty on the one hand, and ‘dangerous’ climate change on the other, raise very strongly questions about the limits of a welfare-economic approach, where the loss of natural capital might be irreversible and impossible to compensate. Thus we also critically reflect on the state-of-the-art in integrated assessment modelling. There will always be an imperative to carry out integrated assessment modelling, bringing together scientific ‘fact’ and value judgement systematically. But we agree with those cautioning against a literal interpretation of current estimates. Ironically, the Stern Review is one of those voices. A fixation with cost-benefit analysis misses the point that arguments for stabilisation should, and are, built on broader foundations.