EFFECTS OF THE ENVELOPE DEGREE OF OROGRAPHY ON THE SIMULATED CLIMATE PROPERTIES

A primitive equation model with a zonal domain and a p-σ incorporated vertical coordinate systemis used to study the effects of the envelope degree of orography on the simulated properties of bothwinter and summer climates.Results show that the orography with a larger envelope degree can im-prove the simulations to certain extent,especially in winter.It is found that the simulated propertiesof climate are mainly determined by the co-effects of the land-sea and the orographic distributions,and the envelope degree of orography has a secondary effect.However it should be taken properly inorder to improve simulations:otherwise,it would be harmful.Different envelope degrees of orogra-phy can be adopted in different areas.     

我国5月降水的气候特点和长期变化

从月尺度降水长期预报业务的需要出发，根据中央气象台长期科１６０站月降水资料，分析了中国５月份降水的基本气候特点和长期变化，进一步明确了５月份降水预报业务的工作重点，揭示出某些对５月份降水预报业务有价值的气候现象，其中５月份南北方降水长期变化的阶段性及其反位相振荡现象（ＳＮ现象）对５月份降水长期预报业务具有重要实践意义。     

美国长期天气预报业务的新发展──发布气候展望

从１９９５年元月份起，美国天气局正式发布预见期为一年的业务性气候展望，该文简要地介绍了美国天气局作出这些重大变更的科学依据、预报方法、预报制作与预报准确等方面的情况。     

河南周口拗陷下第三系核二段古水流及沉积体系研究

本文利用地震时间剖面的内部反射结构和外部几何形态等地震相标志,结合古地貌特征的研究,对周口拗陷下第三系核桃园组二段进行了古水流体系和沉积体系的分析。研究表明,充分利用地震信息,对在控制井少的新区寻找隐蔽油藏可提供科学依据。     

北京西山南部构造序列初探

笔者利用解析构造学方法,初步确定了本区的构造序列。它反映了从下部构造层次到上部构造层次的系统变化,从早期的层内固态流变经压扁作用和弯曲作用到后期的剪切破裂变形过程中岩石韧性递减的系统演变。由于岩浆侵入而使其间增加了一个韧性再增强的变形期。     

Numerical Modeling of the Ston-Slano (Croatia) Aftershock Sequence

The rate of aftershock occurrence after the M6 Ston-Slano (Croatia) earthquake is modeled as the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS). Increase of the modeled cumulative number of aftershocks with time was fitted to observations by the least-squares criterion using the combined grid-search and Monte-Carlo approach. This enabled not only the estimation of the most probable ETAS parameters, but also the determination of their confidence limits, as well as the estimation of the bias between them. It has been found that the bias is significant for some of the parameter pairs, regardless of the threshold magnitude assumed. Residual analyses revealed that all strong aftershocks (M _L 4.5) occurred during the periods of normal to high aftershock activity. There were two periods of quiescence in the sequence, both of which were followed by a strong aftershock.     

High-Resolution Seismic Reflection Evidence for Middle Holocene Environmental Change, Owasco Lake, New York

Approximately 70 km of new decimeter-resolution seismic reflection profile data from Owasco Lake, New York define a middle Holocene (4600 ¹⁴C yr B.P.) erosion surface in the north end of the lake at water depths as great as 26 m. Beneath the lake, post-glacial sediments are up to 9 m thick and represent about 10% of the total sediment fill. Early to middle Holocene sediments, 6 m thick, contain biogenic gas at the south end of the basin and a large (4 km×300 m×15 m) subaqueous slide deposit along the east-central portion of the lake. Late Holocene sediments are thinner or absent, particularly at the north end of the lake. The middle Holocene erosion surface may have been produced by a drop in lake level. Alternatively, it may represent a change in climate during the transition between the relatively warm Holocene hypsithermal and cool neoglacial. At this time (4600 ¹⁴C yr B.P.) circulation in Owasco Lake appears to have evolved from sluggish to active. The increased circulation, which persists today, probably resulted from atmospheric cold fronts with strong southwesterly winds that piled up water at the north end of the lake. The increased water circulation may have been ultimately driven by decreasing insolation, which produced an increased pole-to-equator thermal gradient and, thus, stronger global winds that began at the transition between the hypsithermal and neoglacial.     

Chironomid-based paleosalinity records in southern British Columbia, Canada: a comparison of transfer functions

Chironomid remains from Big Lake, British Columbia were analysed and paleosalinities were estimated using a pre-existing transfer function and several developed using new regression methods. A two component partial-least-squares model (PLS-2) had the highest coefficient of determination (R² _(Jackknifed) = 0.75) and lowest root-mean-squared error-of-prediction (RMSEP). As compared to the pre-existing model, it was also less sensitive to the influence of rare taxa. Nevertheless, the marginally larger R² _(Jackknifed) and lower RMSEP do not clearly identify a single best model. The models were applied to Big, Mahoney and Kilpoola lakes, revealing the sensitivity of paleosalinity inferences to model selection. A synopsis of chironomid-based paleosalinities in British Columbia and their correspondence with other paleoclimatic data are presented and discussed.     

Chironomids as indicators of climate change: a 100‐lake training set from a subarctic region of northern Sweden (Lapland)

Multivariate numerical analyses (DCA, CCA) were used to study the distribution of chironomids from surface sediments of 100 lakes spanning broad ecoclimatic conditions in northern Swedish Lapland. The study sites range from boreal forest to alpine tundra and are located in a region of relatively low human impact. Of the 19 environmental variables measured, ordination by CCA identified mean July air temperature as one of the most significant variables explaining the distribution and the abundance of chironomids. Lossonignition (LOI), maximum lake depth and mean January air temperature also accounted for significant variation in chironomid assemblages. A quantitative transfer function was created to estimate mean July air temperature from sedimentary chironomid assemblages using weightedaveraging partial least squares regression (WAPLS). The coefficient of determination was relatively high (r² = 0.65) with root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP, based on jack-knifing) of 1.13 °C and maximum bias of 2.1 °C, indicating that chironomids can provide useful quantitative estimates of past changes in mean July air temperature. The paper focuses mainly on the relationship between chironomid composition and July air temperature, but the relationship to LOI and depth are also discussed.     

A study on environmental aridity over northern and southern to Qinling Mountains under climate warming

1 Introduction With progressive researches on global climate change, an integrated study of various disciplines tends to be inevitable. Mr. Moore III, chairman of IGBP, holds that the key to integration is to synthesize scientific findings so as to get new ideas and to chance cognition up to a new high[1]. Micro-study, rather than macro-study focuses on regional change[2-5]. To strengthen the global perspective in the study, "to research on typical regions and to deepen the regional divide…