美国长期天气预报业务的新发展──发布气候展望

从１９９５年元月份起，美国天气局正式发布预见期为一年的业务性气候展望，该文简要地介绍了美国天气局作出这些重大变更的科学依据、预报方法、预报制作与预报准确等方面的情况。     

河南周口拗陷下第三系核二段古水流及沉积体系研究

本文利用地震时间剖面的内部反射结构和外部几何形态等地震相标志,结合古地貌特征的研究,对周口拗陷下第三系核桃园组二段进行了古水流体系和沉积体系的分析。研究表明,充分利用地震信息,对在控制井少的新区寻找隐蔽油藏可提供科学依据。     

北京西山南部构造序列初探

笔者利用解析构造学方法,初步确定了本区的构造序列。它反映了从下部构造层次到上部构造层次的系统变化,从早期的层内固态流变经压扁作用和弯曲作用到后期的剪切破裂变形过程中岩石韧性递减的系统演变。由于岩浆侵入而使其间增加了一个韧性再增强的变形期。     

Numerical Modeling of the Ston-Slano (Croatia) Aftershock Sequence

The rate of aftershock occurrence after the M6 Ston-Slano (Croatia) earthquake is modeled as the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS). Increase of the modeled cumulative number of aftershocks with time was fitted to observations by the least-squares criterion using the combined grid-search and Monte-Carlo approach. This enabled not only the estimation of the most probable ETAS parameters, but also the determination of their confidence limits, as well as the estimation of the bias between them. It has been found that the bias is significant for some of the parameter pairs, regardless of the threshold magnitude assumed. Residual analyses revealed that all strong aftershocks (M _L 4.5) occurred during the periods of normal to high aftershock activity. There were two periods of quiescence in the sequence, both of which were followed by a strong aftershock.     

High-Resolution Seismic Reflection Evidence for Middle Holocene Environmental Change, Owasco Lake, New York

Approximately 70 km of new decimeter-resolution seismic reflection profile data from Owasco Lake, New York define a middle Holocene (4600 ¹⁴C yr B.P.) erosion surface in the north end of the lake at water depths as great as 26 m. Beneath the lake, post-glacial sediments are up to 9 m thick and represent about 10% of the total sediment fill. Early to middle Holocene sediments, 6 m thick, contain biogenic gas at the south end of the basin and a large (4 km×300 m×15 m) subaqueous slide deposit along the east-central portion of the lake. Late Holocene sediments are thinner or absent, particularly at the north end of the lake. The middle Holocene erosion surface may have been produced by a drop in lake level. Alternatively, it may represent a change in climate during the transition between the relatively warm Holocene hypsithermal and cool neoglacial. At this time (4600 ¹⁴C yr B.P.) circulation in Owasco Lake appears to have evolved from sluggish to active. The increased circulation, which persists today, probably resulted from atmospheric cold fronts with strong southwesterly winds that piled up water at the north end of the lake. The increased water circulation may have been ultimately driven by decreasing insolation, which produced an increased pole-to-equator thermal gradient and, thus, stronger global winds that began at the transition between the hypsithermal and neoglacial.     

Chironomid-based paleosalinity records in southern British Columbia, Canada: a comparison of transfer functions

Chironomid remains from Big Lake, British Columbia were analysed and paleosalinities were estimated using a pre-existing transfer function and several developed using new regression methods. A two component partial-least-squares model (PLS-2) had the highest coefficient of determination (R² _(Jackknifed) = 0.75) and lowest root-mean-squared error-of-prediction (RMSEP). As compared to the pre-existing model, it was also less sensitive to the influence of rare taxa. Nevertheless, the marginally larger R² _(Jackknifed) and lower RMSEP do not clearly identify a single best model. The models were applied to Big, Mahoney and Kilpoola lakes, revealing the sensitivity of paleosalinity inferences to model selection. A synopsis of chironomid-based paleosalinities in British Columbia and their correspondence with other paleoclimatic data are presented and discussed.     

Chironomids as indicators of climate change: a 100‐lake training set from a subarctic region of northern Sweden (Lapland)

Multivariate numerical analyses (DCA, CCA) were used to study the distribution of chironomids from surface sediments of 100 lakes spanning broad ecoclimatic conditions in northern Swedish Lapland. The study sites range from boreal forest to alpine tundra and are located in a region of relatively low human impact. Of the 19 environmental variables measured, ordination by CCA identified mean July air temperature as one of the most significant variables explaining the distribution and the abundance of chironomids. Lossonignition (LOI), maximum lake depth and mean January air temperature also accounted for significant variation in chironomid assemblages. A quantitative transfer function was created to estimate mean July air temperature from sedimentary chironomid assemblages using weightedaveraging partial least squares regression (WAPLS). The coefficient of determination was relatively high (r² = 0.65) with root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP, based on jack-knifing) of 1.13 °C and maximum bias of 2.1 °C, indicating that chironomids can provide useful quantitative estimates of past changes in mean July air temperature. The paper focuses mainly on the relationship between chironomid composition and July air temperature, but the relationship to LOI and depth are also discussed.     

A study on environmental aridity over northern and southern to Qinling Mountains under climate warming

1 Introduction With progressive researches on global climate change, an integrated study of various disciplines tends to be inevitable. Mr. Moore III, chairman of IGBP, holds that the key to integration is to synthesize scientific findings so as to get new ideas and to chance cognition up to a new high[1]. Micro-study, rather than macro-study focuses on regional change[2-5]. To strengthen the global perspective in the study, "to research on typical regions and to deepen the regional divide…     

Modeling forced pool–riffle hydraulics in a boulder-bed stream, southern California

The mechanisms which control the formation and maintenance of pool–riffles are fundamental aspects of channel form and process. Most of the previous investigations on pool–riffle sequences have focused on alluvial rivers, and relatively few exist on the maintenance of these bedforms in boulder-bed channels. Here, we use a high-resolution two-dimensional flow model to investigate the interactions among large roughness elements, channel hydraulics, and the maintenance of a forced pool–riffle sequence in a boulder-bed stream. Model output indicates that at low discharge, a peak zone of shear stress and velocity occurs over the riffle. At or near bankfull discharge, the peak in velocity and shear stress is found at the pool head because of strong flow convergence created by large roughness elements. The strength of flow convergence is enhanced during model simulations of bankfull flow, resulting in a narrow, high velocity core that is translated through the pool head and pool center. The jet is strengthened by a backwater effect upstream of the constriction and the development of an eddy zone on the lee side of the boulder. The extent of flow convergence and divergence is quantified by identifying the effective width, defined here as the width which conveys 90% of the highest modeled velocities. At low flow, the ratio of effective width between the pool and riffle is roughly 1:1, indicating little flow convergence or divergence. At bankfull discharge, the ratio of effective width is approximately 1:3 between the pool and downstream riffle, illustrating the strong flow convergence at the pool head. The effective width tends to equalize again with a ratio of 1:1 between the pool and riffle during a modeled discharge of a five-year flood, as the large roughness elements above the pool become drowned out. Results suggest that forced pool–riffle sequences in boulder-bed streams are maintained by flows at or near bankfull discharge because of stage-dependent variability in depth-averaged velocity and tractive force.     

南海北部ODP 1144站中更新世气候转型期有孔虫稳定同位素古气候意义

中更新世气候转型期是第四纪古气候研究的一个特殊时期。利用大洋钻探ODP 184航次在南海北部钻取的1144站时间分辨率高达约290年的沉积物样品，开展中更新世气候转型期古气候变化的研究。在中更新世距今80~100万年前，浮游和底栖有孔虫壳体的稳定氧碳同位素变化揭示出，中更新世气候转型中心，即中更新世革命0.9 Ma左右，南海北部表层海水温度的降低和降水量的增加指示东亚冬、夏季风增强。以中更新世革命为界，水体垂向结构上温跃层和营养跃层的深度从之前的间冰期较浅转变为之后的间冰期较深，底层水与表层水的垂直温度梯度从冰期时较大转变为冰期时较小。轨道尺度上，冰消期时南海北部的表层水、次表层水和底层水的变化几乎是同时发生的，不存在超前或滞后的相位差。千年尺度上，有孔虫的氧碳同位素变化都呈现出非常明显的约0.8 ka和约1.4 ka的气候波动周期。氧同位素0.8 ka滤波显示出：在中更新世气候转型期，较强的信号主要出现在间冰期，有时也出现在冰期，与晚第四纪千年尺度气候波动主要出现在冰期不同，说明中更新世的气候转型不仅表现在轨道尺度的气候周期变化上，同时也体现在千年尺度气候波动的特征变化中。 