Storminess and vulnerability along the Atlantic coastlines of Europe: analysis of storm records and of a greenhouse gases induced climate scenario

Identification of the distinctive circulation patterns of storminess on the Atlantic margin of Europe forms the main objective of this study; dealing with storm frequency, intensity and tracking. The climatology of the extratropical cyclones that affect this region has been examined for the period 1940–1998. Coastal meteorological data from Ireland to Spain have been linked to the cyclone history for the North Atlantic in the analysis of storm records for European coasts. The study examines the evolution in the occurrence of storms since the 1940s and also their relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Results indicate a seasonal shift in the wind climate, with regionally more severe winters and calmer summers established. This pattern appears to be linked to a northward displacement in the main North Atlantic cyclone track.

An experiment with the ECHAM4 A-GCM at high resolution (T106) has also been used to model the effect of a greenhouse gases induced warming climate on the climatology of coastal storms in the region. The experiment consists of (1), a 30-year control time-slice representing present-day equivalent CO₂ concentrations and (2), a 30-year perturbed period corresponding to a time when the radiative forcing has doubled in terms of equivalent CO₂ concentrations. The boundary conditions have been obtained from an atmosphere-ocean coupled OA-GCM simulation at low horizontal resolution. An algorithm was developed to allow the identification of individual cyclone movements in selected coastal zones. For most of the northern part of the study region, covering Ireland and Scotland, results describe the establishment by ca. 2060 of a tendency for fewer but more intense storms.

The impacts of these changes in storminess for the vulnerability of European Atlantic coasts are considered. For low-lying, exposed and ‘soft’ sedimentary coasts, as in Ireland, these changes in storminess are likely to result in significant localised increases in coastal erosion.     

银川盆地中更新世以来的孢粉记录及古气候研究

银川盆地中更新世以来的孢粉记录及据此所重建的古气候参数，揭示了该区中更新世以来的古气候演变特征，其演变经过了温湿→凉湿→温和→冷湿→温干→凉较湿→冷湿→温干→凉润→温较干→温干的变化，并与新疆地区，黄土高原以及深海δ^18O曲线进行了对比，结果表明，各地的古环境变化大致同步，该区由于位置靠西，邻近沙漠，最近地质历史时期的区域性干旱特色明显。     

Palynological Evidence on Climate Changes in the East China Sea During Mid and Late Holocene

The pollen analysis of DGKS9617 core in the East China Sea (covering about the last 6800 years) shows five obvious pollen assemblages and seven sub-assemblages. Combined with the sediment and the result of diatom analysis, the climate changes are reconstructed during the Middle and Late Holocene. Corresponding to the pollen assemblages, the climate shifts just as follows: Assemblage Ⅰ-Warm and Dry Stage, Assemblage Ⅱ-Cool and Humid Stage, Assemblage Ⅲ-Hot and Dry Stage (the mean annual temperature is 2～3 ℃ higher than that today ), Assemblage Ⅳ-Cool and Humid Stage, Assemblage Ⅴ-Wann and Dry Stage. The third stage is divided into three substages i.e. a slight colder and dry one, a slight wanner and humid one and a slight warmer and dry one. During the fifth stage, the climate becomes similar to that today with three warm substages and two cool substages.     

龙感湖地区近3000年来的植被及其气候定量重建

本文依据龙感湖钻孔的孢粉及硅藻资料，探讨了该地区近３０００年来的植被发展及气候变化，通过数值分析方法，重建了年均温及年降水的时间序列，发现气候波动存在的两个阶段，（依１．５ｋａＢ．Ｐ．前后划分）四个旋回（０．８ｋａ的准周期）两个突变事件（３ｋａＢ．Ｐ）前后的冷暖急剧变化及１ｋａＢ．Ｐ的降温事件）。这些变化与敦德冰心及固城湖孢粉反映的气候波动有较好的一致性，具有全球变化意义。     

晚中生代─新生代南海周缘地块运动与南海演化

报道了由华南几个盆地的古地磁数据综合而得的反映该区白垩纪以来古纬度变化曲线，结合Ｓｃｈｍｉｄｔｋｅ等（１９９０）发表的加里曼丹１５０Ｍａ以来的古地磁数据，表明华南与加里曼丹在４０Ｍａ前具有大致相同的古纬度变化史，差异仅出现在距今３０Ｍａ前后和１０Ｍａ以来。若此趋势可靠，则可作出下列推断：（１）南海的扩张只能发生在距今３０Ｍａ附近或１０Ｍａ以后华南与加里曼丹反向运动时期；距今３０Ｍａ的扩张已被广为接受；（２）华南与加里曼丹之向可能存在的古南海只能在９１Ｍａ之前存在；（３）南海演化可能存在两期扩张。南海的拟合可通过沿３５００ｍ等深线的先道时针旋转、后北向平移两个步骤完成。这与Ｈａｙａｓｈｉｄａ等（１９９１）提出的日本海张开与扩张模式很相似，提示东亚边缘海的形成和演化可能具有同样的机制。华南距今５０Ｍａ以来的古纬度变化与Ｔａｐｐｏｎｎｉｅｒ（１９８２）的传播挤出构造模式所预期的基本吻合，表明距今５０Ｍａ以来华南古纬度变化的运动学机制可用Ｔａｐｐｏｎｎｉｅｒ模式作解释。     

潮汐对瞬态气候响应模拟的影响研究

In this study, the impact of oceanic processes on the sensitivity of transient climate change is investigated using two sets of coupled experiments with and without tidal forcing, which are termed Exp_Tide and Exp_Control,respectively. After introducing tidal forcing, the transient climate response(TCR) decreases from 2.32 K to 1.90 K,and the surface air temperature warming at high latitudes decreases by 29%. Large ocean heat uptake efficiency and heat storage can explain the low TCR in Exp_Tide. Approximately 21% more heat is stored in the ocean in Exp_Tide(1.10×10~(24) J) than in Exp_Control(0.91×10~(24) J). Most of the large ocean warming occurs in the upper 1 000 m between 60°S and 60°N, primarily in the Atlantic and Southern Oceans. This ocean warming is closely related to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation(AMOC). The initial transport at mid-and high latitudes and the decline in the AMOC observed in Exp_Tide are both larger than those observed in Exp_Control. The spatial structures of AMOC are also different with and without tidal forcing in present experiments. The AMOC in Exp_Tide has a large northward extension. We also investigated the relationship between AMOC and TCR suggested by previous studies using the present experiments.     

Physical and anthropogenic effects on observed long-term nutrient changes in the Irish Sea

The trend in Irish Sea nutrient concentrations over the last four decades has been considered to reflect changes in anthropogenic loading. Comparison of a long-term database for the Menai Strait, North Wales, with an established historic data set for the Cypris station, Isle of Man, indicates that climate also has a significant influence on observations of nutrient concentrations. Data are presented detailing long-term shifts in nitrate, phosphate and silicate measurements since the 1960s at these two fixed sampling sites in the Irish Sea. Broad systematic changes observed in all three nutrients over the decades show a rise from the 1960s through to the 1980s, followed generally by an overall decline in the 1990s. Decadal-scale salinity changes occur in the opposite sense to nutrient changes. Anthropogenic inputs from freshwater cannot fully account for observed nutrient trends, neither is there evidence for shifts in nutrient concentrations in oceanic waters over the past four decades. Climatically forced movement in the geographical position of the freshwater/seawater mixing zone over a decadal time scale could, however, give rise to the observed shifts in nutrient concentration and salinity. This cannot alter nutrient concentration and salinity per se, but causes the measurements taken at fixed sampling sites to fluctuate inversely over this time scale. It is concluded that there is complex interplay between anthropogenic loading and climate affecting the distribution of nutrients in the Irish Sea.