The Effects of Land Cover Change on Regional Climate over the Eastern Part of Northwest China

A regional climate model(Reg CM4) is employed to investigate the impacts of land use/cover change(LUCC) on the climate over the eastern part of Northwest China(ENW) in the periods of 2001 and 2011. The results indicated that the LUCC in ENW, which was characterized by desert retreat, reforestation, and farmland expansion, led to significant local changes in surface air temperature(within ~0.3°C) and slight regional changes in precipitation(within ~15%) in summer. In the desert retreat area, the net absorbed shortwave radiation had a greater influence than evaporative cooling, leading to increases in the daily mean and maximum temperature. Besides, the daily mean and maximum temperatures increased in the reforestation area but decreased in the farmland expansion area. As surface albedo showed no significant change in these regions, the temperature increase in the reforestation area can be attributed to a decrease in evaporation, while the opposite effect appears to have been the case in the farmland expansion area.     

CMIP5西北太平洋气候变率的模拟评估

利用观测海温资料和CMIP5模式模拟结果分析西北太平洋(120°E~120°W,20~60°N)海表温度的气候态和年代际变化特征。结果表明,所选22个模式可以较好地模拟出西北太平洋海表温度的气候特征及其年际、年代际变化特征;模式模拟的海表温度总体标准偏差在黑潮延伸体区域最大;绝大多数模式能模拟出海表温度的第一EOF模态;西北太平洋海表温度具有较明显的年代际振荡现象,13/22的模式模拟的海表温度存在明显的年代际振荡,同时海表温度气候态的模拟偏差对其周期振荡模拟的影响较大,尤其在黑潮延伸体区域。     

Potential impact of future climate change on crop yield in northeastern China

We evaluated the potential impact of future climate change on spring maize and single-crop rice in northeastern China(NEC) by employing climate and crop models. Based on historical data, diurnal temperature change exhibited a distinct negative relationship with maize yield, whereas minimum temperature correlated positively to rice yield. Corresponding to the evaluated climate change derived from coupled climate models included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5) under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario(RCP4.5), the projected maize yield changes for three future periods [2010–39(period 1), 2040–69(period 2), and 2070–99(period 3)] relative to the mean yield in the baseline period(1976–2005) were 2.92%, 3.11% and 2.63%, respectively. By contrast, the evaluated rice yields showed slightly larger increases of 7.19%, 12.39%, and 14.83%, respectively. The uncertainties in the crop response are discussed by considering the uncertainties obtained from both the climate and the crop models. The range of impact of the uncertainty became markedly wider when integrating these two sources of uncertainty. The probabilistic assessments of the evaluated change showed maize yield to be relatively stable from period 1 to period 3, while the rice yield showed an increasing trend over time. The results presented in this paper suggest a tendency of the yields of maize and rice in NEC to increase(but with great uncertainty) against the background of global warming, which may offer some valuable guidance to government policymakers.     

An Evaluation of Temperature and Precipitation Surface-Based and Reanalysis Datasets for the Canadian Arctic, 1950–2010

The spatial and temporal consistency of seasonal air temperature and precipitation in eight widely used gridded observation-based climate datasets (CANGRD, CRU-TS3.1, CRUTEM4.1, GISTEMP, GPCC, GPCP, HadCRUT3, and UDEL) and eight reanalyses (20CR, CFSR, ERA-40, ERA-Interim, JRA25, MERRA, NARR, and NCEP2) was evaluated over the Canadian Arctic for the 1950–2010 period. The evaluation used the CANGRD dataset, which is based on homogenized temperature and adjusted precipitation from climate stations, as a reference. Dataset agreement and bias were observed to exhibit important spatial, seasonal, and temporal variability over the Canadian Arctic with the largest spread occurring between datasets over mountain and coastal regions and over the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Reanalysis datasets were typically warmer and wetter than surface observation-based datasets, with CFSR and 20CR exhibiting biases in total annual precipitation on the order of 300?mm. Warm bias in 20CR exceeded 12°C in winter over the western Arctic. Analysis of the temporal consistency of datasets over the 1950–2010 period showed evidence of discontinuities in several datasets as well as a noticeable increase in dataset spread in the period after approximately 2000. Declining station networks, increased automation, and the inclusion of new satellite data streams in reanalyses are potential contributing factors to this phenomenon. Evaluation of trends over the 1950–2010 period showed a relatively consistent picture of warming and increased precipitation over the Canadian Arctic from all datasets, with CANGRD giving moistening trends two times larger than the multi-dataset average related to the adjustment of the station precipitation data. The study results indicate that considerable care is needed when using gridded climate datasets in local or regional scale applications in the Canadian Arctic.     

Ensemble flood risk assessment in Europe under high end climate scenarios

At the current rate of global warming, the target of limiting it within 2 degrees by the end of the century seems more and more unrealistic. Policymakers, businesses and organizations leading international negotiations urge the scientific community to provide realistic and accurate assessments of the possible consequences of so called “high end” climate scenarios.This study illustrates a novel procedure to assess the future flood risk in Europe under high levels of warming. It combines ensemble projections of extreme streamflow for the current century based on EURO-CORDEX RCP 8.5 climate scenarios with recent advances in European flood hazard mapping. Further novelties include a threshold-based evaluation of extreme event magnitude and frequency, an alternative method to removing bias in climate projections, the latest pan-European exposure maps, and an improved flood vulnerability estimation.Estimates of population affected and direct flood damages indicate that by the end of the century the socio-economic impact of river floods in Europe is projected to increase by an average 220% due to climate change only. When coherent socio-economic development pathways are included in the assessment, central estimates of population annually affected by floods range between 500,000 and 640,000 in 2050, and between 540,000 and 950,000 in 2080, as compared to 216,000 in the current climate. A larger range is foreseen in the annual flood damage, currently of 5.3 B€, which is projected to rise at 20–40 B€ in 2050 and 30–100 B€ in 2080, depending on the future economic growth.     

A2和B2排放情景下气候变化对福建省水稻生产的阶段性影响

选择IPCC排放情景特别报告(SRES)中的A2和B2方案,利用区域气候模式PRECIS构建的气候变化情景文件与作物模型(CERES-Rice)耦合,采用雨养与灌溉两种方式,并综合考虑未来CO2浓度增加带来的直接增益效应,模拟了未来2020s及2040s两个时段气候变化对福建省水稻生育期与产量的影响。结果表明:无论是雨养方式还是灌溉方式,未来全省各稻区水稻生育期都将缩短,并且随着温度增高,2040s时段缩短的时间较2020s更长,单季稻生育期缩短时间最长,可达15~20 d。雨养条件下,除了闽东南双季稻区后季稻在2020s时段表现为2.3%(A2)和3.1%(B2)较小幅度的增产外,其他稻区各种稻作制度下的水稻产量较之BASE均出现了不同幅度的减产。闽西北稻区后季稻减产幅度最大,2020s时段A2和B2情景下减产幅度依次为6.9%和10.2%,2040s时段减产幅度进一步加大至14.1%和15.6%。闽东南稻区后季稻模拟结果较为乐观,尤其是在灌溉条件下表现为不同幅度的增产,两种情景下分别增产了1.7%、3.9%。双季稻种植区的后季稻产量稳定性均不如早稻和单季稻的,且随着温度升高,到2040s产量不稳定性有增加的趋势。灌溉在一定程度上可以缓解未来高温天气带来的产量波动。从全省的总产变化趋势来看,A2和B2两种排放情景模拟的结果都不容乐观,即使采用充分灌溉的方式,也依旧表现为减产。2020s时段,两种情景下分别减产0.74%与2.44%;2040s时段,两种情景下减产为3.50%与3.23%。未来早稻和单季稻生长季的土壤水分条件将变得不如目前湿润,与之相关的灌溉需要量均有所增加。     

On the use of X-ray and γ-ray telescopes for identifying the origin of electrons and positrons observed by ATIC, Fermi, and PAMELA

X-ray and γ-ray observations can help understand the origin of the electron and positron signals reported by ATIC, PAMELA, PPB-BETS, and Fermi. It remains unclear whether the observed high-energy electrons and positrons are produced by relic particles, or by some astrophysical sources. To distinguish between the two possibilities, one can compare the electron population in the local neighborhood with that in the dwarf spheroidal galaxies, which are not expected to host as many pulsars and other astrophysical sources. This can be accomplished using X-ray and γ-ray observations of dwarf spheroidal galaxies. Assuming the signal detected by Fermi and ATIC comes from dark matter and using the inferred dark matter profile of the Draco dwarf spheroidal galaxy as an example, we calculate the photon spectrum produced by electrons via inverse Compton scattering. Since little is known about the magnetic fields in dwarf spheroidal galaxies, we consider the propagation of charged particles with and without diffusion. Extending the analysis of Fermi collaboration for Draco, we find that for a halo mass ∼10⁹ M_⊙, even in the absence of diffusion, the γ-ray signal would be above the upper limits. This conclusion is subject to uncertainties associated with the halo mass. If dwarf spheroidal galaxies host local magnetic fields, the diffusion of the electrons can result in a signal detectable by future X-ray telescopes.     

Cassini SAR, radiometry, scatterometry and altimetry observations of Titan’s dune fields

Large expanses of linear dunes cover Titan’s equatorial regions. As the Cassini mission continues, more dune fields are becoming unveiled and examined by the microwave radar in all its modes of operation (SAR, radiometry, scatterometry, altimetry) and with an increasing variety of observational geometries. In this paper, we report on Cassini’s radar instrument observations of the dune fields mapped through May 2009 and present our key findings in terms of Titan’s geology and climate. We estimate that dune fields cover ∼12.5% of Titan’s surface, which corresponds to an area of ∼10 million km², roughly the area of the United States. If dune sand-sized particles are mainly composed of solid organics as suggested by VIMS observations (Cassini Visual and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer) and atmospheric modeling and supported by radiometry data, dune fields are the largest known organic reservoir on Titan. Dune regions are, with the exception of the polar lakes and seas, the least reflective and most emissive features on this moon. Interestingly, we also find a latitudinal dependence in the dune field microwave properties: up to a latitude of ∼11°, dune fields tend to become less emissive and brighter as one moves northward. Above ∼11° this trend is reversed. The microwave signatures of the dune regions are thought to be primarily controlled by the interdune proportion (relative to that of the dune), roughness and degree of sand cover. In agreement with radiometry and scatterometry observations, SAR images suggest that the fraction of interdunes increases northward up to a latitude of ∼14°. In general, scattering from the subsurface (volume scattering and surface scattering from buried interfaces) makes interdunal regions brighter than the dunes. The observed latitudinal trend may therefore also be partially caused by a gradual thinning of the interdunal sand cover or surrounding sand sheets to the north, thus allowing wave penetration in the underlying substrate. Altimetry measurements over dunes have highlighted a region located in the Fensal dune field (∼5° latitude) where the icy bedrock of Titan is likely exposed within smooth interdune areas. The hemispherical assymetry of dune field properties may point to a general reduction in the availability of sediments and/or an increase in the ground humidity toward the north, which could be related to Titan’s asymmetric seasonal polar insolation. Alternatively, it may indicate that either the wind pattern or the topography is less favorable for dune formation in Titan’s northern tropics.     

Annual survey of water vapor behavior from the OMEGA mapping spectrometer onboard Mars Express

We present here the annual behavior of atmospheric water vapor on Mars, as observed by the OMEGA spectrometer on board Mars Express during its first martian year. We consider all the different features of the cycle of water vapor: temporal evolution, both at a seasonal and at a diurnal scale; longitudinal distribution; and the vertical profile, through the variations in the saturation height. We put our results into the context of the current knowledge on the water cycle through a systematic comparison with the already published datasets. The seasonal behavior is in very good agreement with past and simultaneous retrievals both qualitatively and quantitatively, within the uncertainties. The average water vapor abundance during the year is ∼10 pr. μm, with an imbalance between northern and southern hemisphere, in favor of the first. The maximum of activity, up to 60 pr. μm, occurs at high northern latitudes during local summer and shows the dominance of the northern polar cap within the driving processes of the water cycle. A corresponding maximum at southern polar latitudes during the local summer is present, but less structured and intense. It reaches ∼25 pr. μm at its peak. Global circulation has some influence in shaping the water cycle, but it is less prominent than the results from previous instruments suggest. No significant correlation between water vapor column density and local hour is detected. We can constrain the amount of water vapor exchanged between the surface and the atmosphere to few pr. μm. This is consistent with recent results by OMEGA and PFS-LW. The action of the regolith layer on the global water cycle seems to be minor, but it cannot be precisely constrained. The distribution of water vapor on the planet, after removing the topography, shows the already known two-maxima system, over Tharsis and Arabia Terra. However, the Arabia Terra increase is quite fragmented compared with previous observations. A deep zone of minimum separates the two regions. The saturation height of water vapor is mainly governed by the variations of insolation during the year. It is confined within 5-15 km from the surface at aphelion, while in the perihelion season it stretches up to 55 km of altitude.