Lake Neor reveals how mountain vegetation responded to 7000 years of hydroclimate variability in northwestern Iran

Palynological and geochemical analyses provide valuable information about modern and past climatic regimes and vegetation. The impact of climate and humans on past vegetation in the semi-arid areas of northwestern Iran has received increased interest in the wake of warming temperatures in the Middle East. Palynological and down-core XRF elemental abundances from a peat core from Lake Neor enabled a reconstruction of vegetational changes of the past 7000 years over the highlands of northwestern Iran. Periods of increased arboreal pollen (AP) types and high (Artemisia + Poaceae)/Chenopodiaceae ratios along with low titanium abundances, high percentages of total organic carbon, more negative δD values, and higher carbon accumulation rates suggest a relatively wet climate. These conditions have persisted during the periods 6700–6200, 5200–4450 and 3200–2200 cal a bp. The overall low AP values, substantial rise of Chenopodiaceae, high Ti abundances and low values of palaeo-redox proxies, are all evidences of a drier climate, as has been reconstructed for the periods 6200–5200 and 4030–3150 cal a bp and the last 2200 years. An important feature of the last centuries is the increase of anthropogenic and pastoral indicator pollen types. Our results may provide basic data to predict future trends in vegetation dynamics under future climate change in western Asia.     

The role of climate change and human interventions in affecting watershed runoff responses

Identifying the role of the two main driving factors—climate change and human interventions—in influencing runoff processes is essential for sustainable water resources management. For this purpose, runoff regime change detection methods were used to divide the available hydroclimatic variables into a baseline and a disturbed period. We applied hydrological modelling and the climate elasticity of runoff method to determine the contribution of climate change and human interventions to changes in runoff. The hydrological model, SWAT, was calibrated during the baseline period and used to simulate the naturalized runoff pattern for the disturbed period. Significant changes in runoff in the study watershed were detected from 1982, suggesting that human interventions play a dominant role in influencing runoff. The combined effects of climate change and human interventions resulted in a 41.3 mm (23.9%) decrease in runoff during the disturbed period, contributing about 40% and 60% to the total runoff change, respectively. Furthermore, analysis of changes in land cover dynamics in the watershed over the past four decades supported these changes in runoff. Contrary to other decades, the discrepancy between naturalized and observed runoff was small in the 2010s, likely due to increased baseflow as a result of storage and/or release of excess water during the dry season. This study contributes to our understanding of how climate change and human interventions affect hydrological responses of watersheds, which is important for future sustainable water management and drought adaptation.     

Using raw regional climate model outputs for quantifying climate change impacts on hydrology

General circulation model outputs are rarely used directly for quantifying climate change impacts on hydrology, due to their coarse resolution and inherent bias. Bias correction methods are usually applied to correct the statistical deviations of climate model outputs from the observed data. However, the use of bias correction methods for impact studies is often disputable, due to the lack of physical basis and the bias nonstationarity of climate model outputs. With the improvement in model resolution and reliability, it is now possible to investigate the direct use of regional climate model (RCM) outputs for impact studies. This study proposes an approach to use RCM simulations directly for quantifying the hydrological impacts of climate change over North America. With this method, a hydrological model (HSAMI) is specifically calibrated using the RCM simulations at the recent past period. The change in hydrological regimes for a future period (2041–2065) over the reference (1971–1995), simulated using bias‐corrected and nonbias‐corrected simulations, is compared using mean flow, spring high flow, and summer–autumn low flow as indicators. Three RCMs driven by three different general circulation models are used to investigate the uncertainty of hydrological simulations associated with the choice of a bias‐corrected or nonbias‐corrected RCM simulation. The results indicate that the uncertainty envelope is generally watershed and indicator dependent. It is difficult to draw a firm conclusion about whether one method is better than the other. In other words, the bias correction method could bring further uncertainty to future hydrological simulations, in addition to uncertainty related to the choice of a bias correction method. This implies that the nonbias‐corrected results should be provided to end users along with the bias‐corrected ones, along with a detailed explanation of the bias correction procedure. This information would be especially helpful to assist end users in making the most informed decisions.     

Fingerprinting the 8.2 ka event climate response in a coupled climate model

Using results from coupled climate model simulations of the 8.2 ka climate event that produced a cold period over Greenland in agreement with the reconstructed cooling from ice cores, we investigate the typical pattern of climate anomalies (fingerprint) to provide a framework for the interpretation of global proxy data for the 8.2 ka climate event. For this purpose we developed an analysis method that isolates the forced temperature response and provides information on spatial variations in magnitude, timing and duration that characterise the detectable climate event in proxy archives. Our analysis shows that delays in the temperature response to the freshwater forcing are present, mostly in the order of decades (30 a over central Greenland). The North Atlantic Ocean initially cools in response to the freshwater perturbation, followed in certain parts by a warm response. This delay, occurring more than 200 a after the freshwater pulse, hints at an overshoot in the recovery from the freshwater perturbation. The South Atlantic and the Southern Ocean show a warm response reflecting the bipolar seesaw effect. The duration of the simulated event varies for different areas, and the highest probability of recording the event in proxy archives is in the North Atlantic Ocean area north of 40° N. Our results may facilitate the interpretation of proxy archives recording the 8.2 ka event, as they show that timing and duration cannot be assumed to correspond with the timing and duration of the event as recorded in Greenland ice cores. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A critical evaluation of multi‐proxy dendroclimatology in northern Finland

Twentieth‐century summer (July–August) temperatures in northern Finland are reconstructed using ring widths, maximum density and stable carbon isotope ratios (δ¹³C) of Scots pine tree rings, and using combinations of these proxies. Verification is based on the coefficient of determination (r²), reduction of error (RE) and coefficient of efficiency (CE) statistics. Of the individual proxies, δ¹³C performs best, followed by maximum density. Combining δ¹³C and maximum density strengthens the climate signal but adding ring widths leads to little improvement. Blue intensity, an inexpensive alternative to X‐ray densitometry, is shown to perform similarly. Multi‐proxy reconstruction of summer temperatures from a single site produces strong correlations with gridded climate data over most of northern Fennoscandia. Since relatively few trees are required (<15) the approach could be applied to long sub‐fossil chronologies where replication may be episodically low. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ocean current estimation using a Multi-Model Ensemble Kalman Filter during the Grand Lagrangian Deployment experiment (GLAD)

In the summer and fall of 2012, during the GLAD experiment in the Gulf of Mexico, the Consortium for Advanced Research on Transport of Hydrocarbon in the Environment (CARTHE) used several ocean models to assist the deployment of more than 300 surface drifters. The Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM) at 1 km and 3 km resolutions, the US Navy operational NCOM at 3 km resolution (AMSEAS), and two versions of the Hybrid Coordinates Ocean Model (HYCOM) set at 4 km were running daily and delivering 72-h range forecasts. They all assimilated remote sensing and local profile data but they were not assimilating the drifter’s observations. This work presents a non-intrusive methodology named Multi-Model Ensemble Kalman Filter that allows assimilating the local drifter data into such a set of models, to produce improved ocean currents forecasts. The filter is to be used when several modeling systems or ensembles are available and/or observations are not entirely handled by the operational data assimilation process. It allows using generic in situ measurements over short time windows to improve the predictability of local ocean dynamics and associated high-resolution parameters of interest for which a forward model exists (e.g. oil spill plumes). Results can be used for operational applications or to derive enhanced background fields for other data assimilation systems, thus providing an expedite method to non-intrusively assimilate local observations of variables with complex operators. Results for the GLAD experiment show the method can improve water velocity predictions along the observed drifter trajectories, hence enhancing the skills of the models to predict individual trajectories.     

Evaluation of NLDAS‐2 evapotranspiration against tower flux site observations

The North American Land Data Assimilation System project phase 2 (NLDAS‐2) has run four land surface models for a 30‐year (1979–2008) retrospective period. Land surface evapotranspiration (ET) is one of the most important model outputs from NLDAS‐2 for investigating land–atmosphere interaction or to monitor agricultural drought. Here, we evaluate hourly ET using in situ observations over the Southern Great Plains (Atmospheric Radiation Measurement/Cloud and Radiation Testbed network) for 1 January 1997–30 September 1999 and daily ET u‐sing in situ observations at the AmeriFlux network over the conterminous USA for an 8‐year period (2000–2007). The NLDAS‐2 models compare well against observations, with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction's Noah land surface model performing best, followed, in order, by the Variable Infiltration Capacity, Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting, and Mosaic models. Daily evaluation across the AmeriFlux network shows that for all models, performance depends on season and vegetation type; they do better in spring and fall than in winter or summer and better for deciduous broadleaf forest and grasslands than for croplands or evergreen needleleaf forest. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Distinguishing streamflow trends caused by changes in climate,forest cover,and permafrost in a large watershed in northeastern China

Understanding how rivers respond to changes in land cover, climate, and subsurface conditions is critical for sustainably managing water resources and ecosystems. In this study, long‐term hydrologic, climate, and satellite data (1973–2012) from the Upper Tahe River watershed (2359 km²) in the Da Hinggan Mountains of northeast China were analysed to quantify the relative hydrologic effects of climate variability (system input) and the combined influences of forest cover change and permafrost thaw (system characteristics) on average annual streamflow (system response) using 2 methods: the sensitivity‐based method and the Kendall–Theil robust line method. The study period was subdivided into a forest harvesting period (1973–1987), a forest stability period (1988–2001), and a forest recovery period (2002–2012). The results indicated that the combined effects of forest harvesting and permafrost thaw on streamflow (+ 47.0 mm) from the forest harvesting period to the forest stability period was approximately twice as large as the effect associated with climate variability (+20.2 mm). Similarly, from the forest stability period to the forest recovery period, the decrease in average annual streamflow attributed to the combined effects of forest recovery and permafrost thaw (?38.0 mm) was much greater than the decrease due to climate variability (?22.2 mm). A simple method was used to separate the distinct impacts of forest cover change and permafrost thaw, but distinguishing these influences is difficult due to changes in surface and subsurface hydrologic connectivity associated with permafrost thaw. The results highlight the need to consider multiple streamflow drivers in future watershed and aquatic ecosystem management. Due to the ecological and hydrological susceptibility to disturbances in the Da Hinggan Mountains, forest harvesting will likely negatively impact ecohydrological processes in this region, and the effects of forest species transition in the forest recovery process should be further investigated.