Geographical distribution of fish catches and temperature variations in the northeast Atlantic since 1945

Warming of the northeast Atlantic is expected to affect the location and productivity of fish stocks. It is examined whether variations in catches of cod, herring, mackerel, anchovy and sardines in the ICES statistical areas are related to variations in ocean temperature. Temperatures at certain locations along the Norwegian coast are taken as proxies for temperatures in the Norwegian Sea and the North Sea. It is found that the catches of cod in the North Sea are inversely correlated with temperature and that recruitment and catches of cod in the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea are positively related to temperature. There is also some indication of a positive correlation between temperature and the catches of mackerel in the North Sea and the Norwegian Sea, and between temperature and the catches of sardines in the North Sea.     

Long-Term Variations of Potential Temperature and Dissolved Oxygen of the Japan Sea Proper Water

Observed potential temperatures and concentrations of dissolved oxygen are analyzed to elucidate their variations during the period from 1958 to 1996 at Stn. P (37°43′ N, 134°43′ E) and from 1965 to 1996 at Stn. H (40°30′ N, 137°40′ E) in the Japan Sea. At Stn. P, increases of the potential temperature for the period are found below 800 m depth with the largest value of 0.16 ± 0.09°C per century at 800 m depth. At Stn. H, the potential temperature increased below 500 m depth. The increase rate has the largest value of 0.50 ± 0.18°C per century at 500 m depth and it is 0.30 ± 0.09°C per century at 800 m depth. The concentrations of dissolved oxygen increased around 800 m depth at Stn. P. At Stn. H, they increased above 800 m depth. On the other hand, they decreased below 1200 m depth at both stations. The layer of the dissolved oxygen minimum has deepened in these decades. These features appearing in the distributions of temperature and dissolved oxygen are successively simulated by a vertical one-dimensional advection-diffusion model including consumption of dissolved oxygen and termination of the deep water supply. These results suggest that the supply of the Japan Sea Proper Water into the deep layer, which is cold and rich in dissolved oxygen, has been decreasing for the last four decades. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Controls of hydrocarbon generation on the development of expulsion fractures in organic-rich shale: Based on the Paleogene Shahejie Formation in the Jiyang Depression,Bohai Bay Basin,East China

The development of expulsion fractures in organic-rich shale is closely related to hydrocarbon generation and expulsion from kerogen. Organic-rich shales from the upper part of the fourth member and the lower part of the third member of the Paleogene Shahejie Formation in the Jiyang Depression, Bohai Bay Basin, East China, are used as an example. Based on thin sections, SEM and thermal simulation experiments, the characteristics of hydrocarbon generation and the conditions supporting the development of expulsion fractures were explored. The key factors influencing these fractures include the presence of kerogens, their distribution along laminae and around particle boundaries, their exposure to heat and the build-up in pressure due to confinement by low permeability. The development of excess pore fluid pressures and intrinsic low rock fracture strength are the main influencing factors. Pressurization by rapid generation of hydrocarbon provides impetus for fracture initiation and cause bitumen to migrate quickly. The shale laminae results in distinctly lower fracture strength laminae-parallel than laminae-normal and this directs the formation of new fractures in the direction of weakness. When pore fluid pressure increases, maximum and minimum principal effective stresses decrease by different proportions with a larger reduction in the maximum principal effective stress. This increases the deviatoric stress and reduces the mean stress, thus driving the rock towards failure. Moreover, the tabular shape of the kerogen aids the generation of hydrocarbon and the initiation of expulsion fractures from the tip and edge. The resulting fractures extend along the laminae when the tensile strength is lower in the vertical direction than in the horizontal direction. Particle contact boundaries are weak and allow fractures to expand around particles and to curve as the stress/strength regime changes. When pore fluid pressure fields at different fracture tips overlap, fractures will propagate and interconnect, forming a network. This paper could provide us more detailed understanding of the forming processes of expulsion fractures and better comprehension about hydrocarbon expulsion (primary migration) in source rocks.     

Equilibrium erosion of soft rock shores with a shallow or absent beach under increased sea level rise

A process-based numerical model was used to explore the response of soft rock shores with low volume beaches to variable rates of sea level rise. Equilibrium recession rates were simulated for ranges of wave height and period, tidal amplitude, rock strength, beach volume and rate of sea level rise. Equilibrium shore profiles were found to be steeper with higher rates of sea level rise. Beaches were represented as protective surfaces yet were found to cause no significant reduction in equilibrium recession rate when their volumes were below a critical threshold. Reduced equilibrium recession rates were found with beaches that extended sufficiently far below low tide level. The model results imply that, given several constraints, a very simple relationship exists between increased rates of sea level rise and the response of eroding composite soft rock/low volume beach shores.     

800年来苏北废黄河三角洲的演变模式

根据历史资料、数据和相关研究,结合研究区域背景,分析苏北废黄河三角洲的演变。结果显示,岸线演变在发育阶段和侵蚀阶段分别为向海延伸约90 km和侵蚀后退约22 km,面积相差约800 km2,三角洲地貌演变表现为岸线平直-曲折-平滑-平直的过程。在废三角洲陆海相互作用的基础上,运用演化模式分析三角洲的演变过程。该三角洲演变可以分为7个演变阶段,发育期在径流和潮流作用下以沙洲并陆淤积延伸方式进行,侵蚀期在波浪和潮流作用下以沙洲合并侵蚀后退和淤积外长交替侵蚀的方式。泥沙输运、人类活动和气候变化对废三角洲的演变有重要影响,巨量的来沙是三角洲发育的原因,泥沙平衡被打破是侵蚀的主要原因。发育期中,泥沙输运影响淤积速度和位置,人类活动和气候变化影响黄河河道迁移、输沙量和产沙量;侵蚀期中,泥沙输运影响侵蚀状态,人类活动在一定程度上影响海岸带冲/淤,气候变化将影响三角洲的演变趋势。     

Study of tide prediction method influenced by nonperiodic factors based on support vector machines

Harmonic analysis, the traditional tidal forecasting method, cannot take into account the impact of noncyclical factors, and is also based on the BP neural network tidal prediction model which is easily limited by the amount of data. According to the movement of celestial bodies, and considering the insufficient tidal characteristics of historical data which are impacted by the nonperiodic weather, a tidal prediction method is designed based on support vector machine (SVM) to carry out the simulation experiment by using tidal data from Xiamen Tide Gauge, Luchaogang Tide Gauge and Weifang Tide Gauge individually. And the results show that the model satisfactorily carries out the tide prediction which is influenced by noncyclical factors. At the same time, it also proves that the proposed prediction method, which when compared with harmonic analysis method and the BP neural network method, has faster modeling speed, higher prediction precision and stronger generalization ability.     

山东半岛东南部典型砂质岸滩季节性演化及控制因素探讨——以海阳万米海滩为例

根据2018年秋季至2019年夏季4个季节的海滩剖面形态测量和表层沉积物粒度分析结果,研究了海阳万米海滩地形和表层沉积物粒度季节变化特征,探讨了控制研究区砂质岸滩季节性演化的因素。结果表明：连理岛-东村河口以西海滩剖面形态在强动力和弱动力条件下分别呈“上蚀下淤”和“下冲上塑”特征,夏季台风造成的滩肩侵蚀量大于冬季风,在滩面形成的沙坝数量多、规模小且离岸距离较之冬季风更远。连理岛-东村河口处海滩剖面形态整体呈淤积状态,且在强动力条件下的淤积量大于弱动力条件。连理岛-东村河口以东海滩剖面形态的季节性变化幅度小于以西海滩,同时滩肩顶剖面形态在夏季出现明显下凹特征。表层沉积物粒度特征变化同样呈现东西差异的特点,秋季到冬季,西侧海滩表层沉积物粒度变粗、分选变差,而东侧海滩变细、分选基本不变;冬季到春季,海滩表层沉积物粒度总体变细、分选较好;夏季变化趋势与冬季相似,但变化幅度有所差异。人工岛和港口等海岸工程建设是导致海滩剖面形态和表层沉积物粒度东西差异的主导因素;波浪和台风事件等是控制砂质岸滩季节性演化的主要动力因素;潮汐作用、旅游开发等人类活动也对岸滩演化造成一定影响。     

鄂尔多斯盆地陕北地区延长组长7段致密油储层特征及其主控因素

鄂尔多斯盆地延长组石油资源丰富,储层致密,为了查明湖盆致密砂岩储层发育机理,综合利用岩心观察、铸体薄片鉴定、X射线衍射分析、扫描电镜观察、高压压汞测试等方法,对鄂尔多斯盆地陕北地区长7段致密油储层特征及其发育主控因素进行了分析。研究结果显示,研究区长7段长石含量高,主要发育长石砂岩和岩屑长石砂岩。致密砂岩储层孔隙类型以长石粒内溶蚀孔隙和粒间溶蚀孔隙为主,同时晶间微孔和微裂缝较为发育。研究区长7段时期主要为三角洲前缘与滨浅湖沉积环境,水动力较弱,发育砂岩中泥质含量较高。中等强度压实作用及早期的方解石胶结作用使原生孔隙消失殆尽,胶结作用进一步使孔隙减小。由于长石及黏土含量较高,其受溶蚀作用形成溶蚀孔隙,改善储层质量,同时也是研究区长7段致密砂岩储层发育的主要控制因素。     

Diel and seasonal variability in the fish community structure of a mud‐bottom estuarine habitat in the Gulf of Mexico

We hypothesized that temporal variation in fish species composition and community structure in a low complexity habitat in the Pueblo Viejo Lagoon, Mexico, is influenced by diel light/dark cycles and tidal stage, and by seasonal changes in salinity and temperature. We collected a total of 17,661 individuals during 2‐h interval sampling over six bi‐monthly 24‐h sampling cycles representing 53 species, of which 11 (～20%) were previously unknown in the system. Diel variation indicated that significantly higher numbers of individuals and species were caught at night, whereas diversity and evenness were higher during the day. Species richness was significantly higher in July and January, whereas diversity and evenness peaked around May; both were correlated with temperature. Diel variation in species composition was influenced primarily by the light/dark cycle. Cluster analyses of each diel cycle separated fish assemblages from midday samples from those of nocturnal samples, separated by an extended wide transition period as fish moved at dawn and during the late afternoon/dusk. Significant shifts (as determined by MANOVA) in assemblage structure occurred between months. Canonical correspondence analysis showed that temperature and day/night effects were the most important environmental variables structuring the fish community. This constrained ordination also defined species with specific habitat preferences as follows: (i) diurnal, warm temperature species (mainly planktivores) (Brevoortia gunteri, Cetengraulis edentulus, Diapterus auratus, and Membras martinica); (ii) nocturnal, warm temperature species (mainly predators) (Citharichthys spilopterus, Cathorops melanopus, and Bairdiella spp.); and (iii) low temperature, diurnal species (Brevoortia patronus and Mugil curema) or those with twilight and nocturnal distributions (Anchoa mitchilli, the most numerically abundant species). Our results indicate that diel and seasonal changes in fish community structure were mainly related to day/night cycles and temperature regimes.     

1970-2019年黄浦江上游年最高潮位变化及驱动因子

黄浦江年最高潮位变化关系到上海市的防洪安全,本文基于米市渡站1970－2019年年最高潮位、太湖流域降水量等数据,研究了近50 年来黄浦江上游年最高潮位的变化趋势和变异特性、发生频率变化以及潮位变化的驱动因子。结果表明：年最高潮位在1970－2019年总体呈显著上升趋势,上升幅度为81 cm,年均上升1.62 cm。1995年之后出现跳跃式的波动上升,1996－2002年相对1995年之前较大幅度上升,2003－2011年相比1996－2002年出现较明显下降,之后又较大幅度上升。随着潮位升高,各频率对应的最高潮位均较大幅度增加,升高幅度均达0.9 m以上,五十年一遇、百年一遇、千年一遇高潮位分别由1970年条件下的3.77 m、3.81 m、3.94 m升高到2019年条件下的4.71 m、4.75 m、4.92 m。与此同时,相同潮位下的重现期急剧减小,高潮位发生频率大幅度增加。分析认为,年最高潮位升高受气候变化和人类活动的综合影响,1970－1995年主要受降水量变化等气候因素的影响,1996－2019年主要受水利工程、台风频率增加等因素的影响,尤其是太湖流域太浦河等工程的修建起重要作用。