不同损失条件下的泥石流预报模型

泥石流预报是泥石流减灾的重要手段之一，然而泥石流形成的复杂性使泥石流预报准确度低，误报和漏报率较高。泥石流误报和漏报都会造成损失，但二者造成的损失有很大的差别。为了减少泥石流误报或漏报造成的损失，应当考虑两种错报造成损失的不同。根据使总平均损失达到最小的原则，建立了不同损失条件下的泥石流预报模型，并将该模型应用到云南东川蒋家沟。     

极地冰芯中记录的火山作用及其对气候的影响

大多数火山喷发以强酸 (主要是硫酸 )的形式在极地冰芯中留下痕迹 ,通过冰芯连续电导率 (ECM)或各个雪冰样品SO42 - 浓度测定能够恢复历史上的火山作用。极地冰芯中已知年代的火山喷发还可用于冰芯定年。极地冰芯记录的火山信号大小依赖于火山喷发的规模和类型 ,火山喷发的地理位置和酸性气体组成 ,大气气溶胶传输 ,以及沉降地点的年积累率和沉积后生过程等。单个火山喷发通常会导致数月至数年的半球乃至全球范围的气候相对变冷 (这种现象在极区变得更明显 ) ,但过去大规模的爆炸性火山喷发对气候的影响及其与气候变化之间的联系仍有待于进一步研究     

Late Pleistocene–Holocene hydrologic changes in the interfluve areas of the central Ganga Plain, India

Abandoned channel belts, ponds and point bar deposits of palaeochannels in the interfluve regions of the central Ganga Plain suggest changes in the morphohydrologic conditions during the Latest Pleistocene–Holocene. Stratigraphy of these ponds comprises channel sand at the base overlain by shell-bearing clayey silt. The contact of the two facies marks the phase when channels converted into standing water bodies. Point bar deposits of some palaeochannels are overlain by oxidised aeolian sand, indicating that the channel abandonment possibly occurred due to the desiccation and aridity in the region.Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) chronometry of the pond sediments suggests that the deposition of the basal channel sand started before 13 ka and continued up to 8 ka. The ponds formed around 8–6 ka when the channel activity ceased. Evidence from the point bar deposits also indicates that the fluvial activity in the region ended sometime during 7–5 ka. This was followed by aeolian aggradation. The present study thus suggests that the hydrologic conditions in the Gangetic plains, i.e. initiation of channels and their abandonment, formation of microgeomorphologic features such as ponds and their eventual siltation, were controlled largely by climatic changes (i.e. monsoon changes) supported by tectonic activity. For the past 2 ka, increasing human and related agricultural activity has substantially accentuated the natural siltation rate of ponds.     

Climatological characteristics of the tropics in China: climate classification schemes between German scientists and Huang Bingwei

Reviewing some important German scientists who have developed climatic regionalization schemes either on a global or Chinese scale, their various definitions of the tropical climate characteristics in China are discussed and compared with Huang Bingwei's climate classification scheme and the identification of the tropical climate therein. It can be seen that, due to different methodological approaches of the climatic regionalization schemes, the definitions of the tropics vary and hence also their spatial distribution in China. However, it is found that the tropical climate type occupies only a peripheral part of southern China, though it firmly represents a distinctive type of climate that is supsequently associated with a great economic importance for China. As such, the tropical climate type was mostly identified with its agro-climatological significance, that is by giving favourable growing conditions all-year round for perennial crops with a great heat demand. Tropical climate is, hence, conventionally regarded to be governed by all-year round summer conditions "where winter never comes".     

Impact of climate change and variability on water resources in Heihe River Basin

Studies indicate that the climate has experienced a dramatic change in the Heihe River Basin with scope of temperature rise reaching 0.5-1.1oC in the 1990s compared to the mean value of the period 1960-1990, precipitation increased 18.5 mm in the 1990s compared to the 1950s, and 6.5 mm in the 1990s compared to the mean value of the period 1960-1990, water resources decreased 2.6×108 m3 in the 1990s compared to the 1950s, and 0.4×108 m3 in the 1990s compared to the mean value of the period 1960-1990. These changes have exerted a greater effect on the local environment and socio-economy, and also made the condition worsening in water resources utilizations in the Heihe Rver Basin.     

Influence of Arctic Oscillation on winter climate over China

In this study the relationship between the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and climate in China in boreal winter are investigated. Correlation analysis for the last 41 years shows that the winter temperature and precipitation in China change in phase with AO. High positive correlation (>0.4) between temperature and AO appears in the northern China. High correlation coefficients between precipitation and AO cover the southern China (close to the South China Sea) and the central China (between 30o-40oN and east of ~100oE), with the values varying between +0.3 and +0.4. It is found that during the past several decades the precipitation was strongly affected by AO, but for the temperature the Siberian High plays a more important role. At the interdecadal time scale the AO has significant influence on both temperature and precipitation. Multivariate regression analysis demonstrates that AO and the Siberian High related variance in temperature and precipitation is 35% and 11% respectively. For precipitation, however the portion is rather low, implying that some other factors may be responsible for the changes in precipitation, in addition to AO and the Siberian High.     

Quantitative classification and analysis on plant communities in the middle reaches of the Tarim River

Plant communities were sampled in the lower reaches of the Tarim River, Xinjiang. The results showed that there are 23 species belonging to 21 genera in 11 families, most of which have low occurrence frequency in quadrats. The most common species is Tamarix ramosissima, which occurred in 17 sites accounting for 89.47% of the total 19 sites. Quantitative classification (TWINSPAN) and ordination (CCA) methods were used to study the distribution patterns of 23 plant species in 19 sites in this valley. TWINSPAN results showed that the plant communities in the middle reaches of the Tarim River could be divided into 3 groups and the sampling sites could be divided into 7 types in 3 groups. CCA results were consistent with TWINSPAN results, and showed species distribution patterns correlated with major environmental variables of groundwater level and soil moisture.     

Extreme climate events over northern China during the last 50 years

Climate extremes for agriculture-pasture transitional zone, northern China, are analyzed on the basis of daily mean temperature and precipitation observations for 31 stations in the period 1956-2001. Analysis season for precipitation is May-September, i.e., the rainy season. For temperature is the hottest three months, i.e., June through August. Heavy rain events, defined as those with daily precipitation equal to or larger than 50 mm, show no significant secular trend. A jump-like change, however, is found occurring in about 1980. For the period 1980-1993, the frequency of heavy rain events is significantly lower than the previous periods. Simultaneously, the occurring time of heavy rains expanded, commencing about one month early and ending one month later. Long dry spells are defined as those with longer than 10 days without rainfall. The frequency of long dry spells displays a significant (at the 99% confidence level) trend at the value of +8.3%/10a. That may be one of the major causes of the frequent droughts emerging over northern China during the last decades. Extremely hot and low temperature events are defined as the uppermost 10% daily temperatures and the lowest 10% daily temperatures, respectively. There is a weak and non-significant upward trend in frequency of extremely high temperatures from the 1950s to the mid-1990s. But the number of hot events increases as much as twice since 1997. That coincides well with the sudden rise in mean summer temperature for the same period. Contrary to that, the frequency of low temperature events have been decreasing steadily since the 1950s, with a significant linear trend of -15%/10a.     

桂西岩溶堆积型铝土矿床成矿作用及控矿因素

桂西岩溶堆积型铝土矿赋存于岩溶洼地中的红土层中，具有矿床规模大、矿石质量优的特点。成矿物质来源于上二叠统底部的古风化壳型铝土矿层，成矿时代为早更新世，矿床成因与岩溶作用、红土化作用有关。成矿受矿源层、地层岩性、气候、构造、地貌等因素控制。     

西藏冈底斯东段成矿系列区域地球化学预测

西藏冈底斯乐段优势矿床成矿系列预测是当前需要解决的重要问题。文中研究了成矿系列矿源场特征，以及地球化学靶区与矿床成矿系列的联系，揭示了矿化规模的地球化学控制因素，计算了因素耦合系数。预测冈底斯构造带是4种类型矿床成矿系列的密集区。